[Albion] Goallessness in EL vs PL

[Reddleman]

This is a cop out answer but I do believe sometimes it’s just luck and nothing more.

For example, versus Burnley a lucky defection buried itself in the top corner, versus Marseille a very similar deflection hit the crossbar. Maybe an inch either way and the outcomes totally change the games.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Sit back and reap the rewards of BTTS
B365 are offering 4/5 for todays game

 

[Weststander]

This is the thing, Ajax were absolutely shocking both games - they didn’t look PL level in their current condition.

That said, how many times have these big famous clubs got over the line even when in crisis over the years. Reputation and expectation is a powerful leveller.

That’s why I’m so, SO proud of us winning a group of death against two powerhouses of European football. We’re little Brighton who have never won anything of note, and we completely bossed feckin’ AJAX (albeit a very sickly one) home and away.

Incredible scenes.

An amazing achievement, first foray in Europe and we topped three clubs/teams with experience of European football most seasons. Hopefully some equally historic times ahead.

 

[Weststander]

This is a cop out answer but I do believe sometimes it’s just luck and nothing more.

For example, versus Burnley a lucky defection buried itself in the top corner, versus Marseille a very similar deflection hit the crossbar. Maybe an inch either way and the outcomes totally change the games.

Definitely part of it. In Athens to ball pinged around our 6 yard box like a pinball.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Doesn’t matter. The rules of the game are the same. And the objectives are essentially the same. Win as many games as possible. Concede as few as possible. There’s no logical link between different competitions and different defensive performances.

If you are suggesting that the different outcomes are not due to the competitions being different (and I mean as a source of variance, which is itself comprised of all the component parts, such as the opposition do not play in the EPL or indeed in England, the games are on a Thursday) then what are you suggesting?

I have shown (eventually) there is a statistically significant difference in outcome in the two competitions in terms of conceding goals. We can now speculate on reasons. I have made my suggestion. What's yours?

(If you insist there truly is no link, logical or otherwise, and none will be found, then your only recourse is to claim it is simply chance. Despite the P value I calculated I am not yet persuaded that it is anything other than chance. P values are simply measures of likelihood, not measures of absolute truth, as I'm sure you know. Just because things 'look' different they may not be )

 

[Eric the meek]

If you are suggesting that the different outcomes are not due to the competitions being different (and I mean as a source of variance, which is itself comprised of all the component parts, such as the opposition do not play in the EPL or indeed in England, the games are on a Thursday) then what are you suggesting?

I have shown (eventually) there is a statistically significant difference in outcome in the two competitions in terms of conceding goals. We can now speculate on reasons. I have made my suggestion. What's yours?

(If you insist there truly is no link, logical or otherwise, and none will be found, then your only recourse is to claim it is simply chance. Despite the P value I calculated I am not yet persuaded that it is anything other than chance. P values are simply measures of likelihood, not measures of absolute truth, as I'm sure you know. Just because things 'look' different they may not be )

Perhaps we were asking the wrong question.

We've all been looking for a difference between two datasets - the PL (=England) and the EL (=not England).
But where do we look? There are a thousand differences, but how do we isolate the culprit? The fact is, we've been unable to pinpoint it, despite some speculation.

If we can't answer the question, let's ask a different one.

Another difference (one that can be more easily narrowed down) resides wholly within the EL results dataset. Our goals conceded were 3,2,0,0,0,0.
So we had a problem, analysed it, came up with a tweak, and by the time we played the third game, it worked.

IMO, we should take a forensic look at the AEK and Marseille home games. Why did they score? What did we fail to do to stop them? What did we do better in the four subsequent games?

 

[macbeth]

no empirical evidence to back this up but purely based on the eye test, teams in the PL are more physical and faster than teams in the EL and dealing with that is our achilles heel this season

 

[Beanstalk]

Worse opposition?

The worst Ajax team in 65 years, AEK weren’t up to much once we got over stage fright, Marseille had inept finishers.

The PL is the richest league in the world with backers investing £b’s over true profit and loss. Bmuff spent big last January, under the radar Khan at Fulham I think may’ve invested 3x that of TB on players. The point being every team has danger men and game changer who can undo 75 minutes of good defence.

No way can you think Ajax and Marseille were worse sides than Sheffield United or Burnley.

I think the reality is that a point is particularly useful for relegation threatened PL sides, whereas you really need wins in EL because it is so short and there’s no real reward for not trying to finish first. That resulted in us being able to play our game more naturally where we don’t have to open ourselves up on the counter in pursuit of a goal.

 

[Weststander]

No way can you think Ajax and Marseille were worse sides than Sheffield United or Burnley.

I think the reality is that a point is particularly useful for relegation threatened PL sides, whereas you really need wins in EL because it is so short and there’s no real reward for not trying to finish first. That resulted in us being able to play our game more naturally where we don’t have to open ourselves up on the counter in pursuit of a goal.

Burnley had a couple of annoyingly good players, was it 25 and 47?, who we madly gave the freedom of the Amex for 65 minutes in a under-manned midfield. Playing into Kompany’s hands, avoidably silly.

Whereas I thought Ajax were lame and awful. Thankfully.

 

[Krafty]

In each of those EL games, where we did manage a clean sheet, didn't the opposing team hit the woodwork at least once?

I think it is mostly down to luck, but also to do with fielding a stronger line-up in the EL matches compared to the PL matches - especially Burnley and Sheffield United.

Plus, you could mention that Ajax were having an awful spell when we faced them and the quality of Marseille and AEK Athens just isn't as good as many PL outfits currently.

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

I have just edited the very long response I was going to give raging against all the nonsense spouted on this thread so far and changed it to this:

Is it just a quirk of fate that we've conceded goals in every Premier League game we've played since Arsenal away in May, but have managed to keep clean sheets in our last 4 Europa League games? Is there a logical reason for this? It's perplexing me.

Possibly.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

It's mental, we know our leagues teams and players but these strange people from abroad so we have to be very careful....like

 

[peterward]

This is a cop out answer but I do believe sometimes it’s just luck and nothing more.

For example, versus Burnley a lucky defection buried itself in the top corner, versus Marseille a very similar deflection hit the crossbar. Maybe an inch either way and the outcomes totally change the games.

Yes of course you're right.

Underside of bar and post then hit Steele last Thursday, either one could've gone in if just a couple of cm's difference.

Even away in Ajax if that one that hits inside of post and goes along goal line went in, with over 10 mins left, that game changes massively and its backs to the wall.

Fine margins that do involve a little luck and we've been on the right side in EL.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

This is a cop out answer but I do believe sometimes it’s just luck and nothing more.

For example, versus Burnley a lucky defection buried itself in the top corner, versus Marseille a very similar deflection hit the crossbar. Maybe an inch either way and the outcomes totally change the games.

Not a cop out answer at all. Luck is the only thing I can think of but it does seem like a strange statistical anomaly. If it was one or two EL games without conceding I'd definitely put it down to luck. 4 in a row, alongside a much longer list of PL games when we can't keep a clean sheet is just very strange.

 

[Berty23]

The act of scoring is actually pretty random. Haaland had a spell missing big chance after big chance and then bangs one in from
Distance against us. Burnley a deflection off someone’s backside. Everton deflection. Fulham player should have been off. You can go and on. Some games teams create a 15 chances and don’t score. Another day they will create 5 chances and win 4-0.

The West Ham vs spurs match is a perfect example of how teams can get freak goals.

 

[Eric the meek]

Not a cop out answer at all. Luck is the only thing I can think of but it does seem like a strange statistical anomaly. If it was one or two EL games without conceding I'd definitely put it down to luck. 4 in a row, alongside a much longer list of PL games when we can't keep a clean sheet is just very strange.

Luck or randomness will always be present in the data but how do you a) identify it and b) quantify it?

Someone mentioned fine margins earlier. To recap, our goals conceded in Europe were 3,2,0,0,0,0. In terms of luck, was that sequence bad,bad,good,good,good,good or were the goals conceded in the first two games a result of something we failed to do, then we spotted it and made a change to move the fine margins in our favour? I'm erring on the side of the latter, while still acknowledging that luck could still be in play.