General Election predictions

[soistes]

That'll be all the Tories coming home from WORK

Nah they all voted for Caroline Lucas before they went to work


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bozza]

This thread will be closed until the morning to try and keep all the chatter in one place as the news unfolds.

Please use this thread: https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showt...l-Election-2017-quot-Up-All-Night-quot-thread

Threads will be merged together tomorrow, where appropriate.

 

[pb21]

These guys are serious analysts for the money markets - which is why I have just shorted the EURO/GBP line and lumped on GBP/USD to the tune of about £500. I suggest you do the same.

Labour is going to get mashed. Which is good for a softer Brexit, for those that actually understand politics, and good for the Labour party. Because they will rid themselves of a group of marxist c*nts.

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/872509420336447491

Any other tips?

 

[London Irish]

All I'll say is the national result will be very close and given the Brexit bounce for the Tories that's an incredible achievement for the Labour campaign and Jez in particular. No one else on the centre or left in politics could have done this. Head says repeat of 2015 likely small majority but 2010 still in play I think.

I'll stick my neck out and say Labour will edge it in Kemptown and create a Tory free zone in Brighton and Hove

Yeh happy with that

 

[LlcoolJ]

Any other tips?

[emoji23]

 

[sparkie]

Estimated Conservative majority rises in final Ashcroft Model update
Thursday, 8 June, 2017 in Ashcroft Model

By Lord Ashcroft

The final results from the Ashcroft Model shows an increase in the estimated Conservative majority compared to Tuesday’s figures. The new data is based on an updated survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, which found a hardening of the Conservative vote as Tory supporters gave a higher likelihood of turning out to vote than in previous rounds. The upshot is as follows:

Using voters’ self-declared likelihood to turn out, the model estimates 373 Conservative seats, or a Conservative overall majority of 96.
If turnout were to match that of the 2015 election, the model estimates 364 Conservative seats, or a majority of 78.
If everyone who claims to have voted in the EU referendum turns out, the estimated number of Conservative seats falls to 351, or a majority of 52.
Merging these three together and adding each party’s win chances in all the seats they are standing gives a “combined probabilistic estimate” of 363 seats, or a majority of 76.

Oops.

 

[Ernest]

The last Survation poll just about called it right, YouGov were on the right track till they bottled it

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

How does your desire for a balanced media sit with the constant stream of anti Tory anti Brexit propoganda that originates through the Guardian in particular..... Observer too... a lot of it very 'pointed' and personal, and a lot if it very smoothly cascaded around social media by the very tech savvy and politically aware Momentum type groups?

I am assuming you wanted proper balance,.. not just a balance that suits your personal points of view.?

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

I think it more than slightly perverse to single out the Guardian in talking about anti- whatever propaganda. As a reader of that organ I would admit it has a bias - that is why I read it.

But it doesn't hold a candle to the Mail, the Express, and the Sun, all of which for the most part are just plain nasty.

 

[Weststander]

The last Survation poll just about called it right, YouGov were on the right track till they bottled it

True, massive boost for those two polling companies.

All the polling data over the last two months shows the Tories started the days before the election was called on 44%, they ended with 43%. There never was a collapse in their vote at any stage.

The collapse was in the gap, as Labour mopped up most of UKIP voters and decimated the LibDem vote.

 

[Weststander]

I think it more than slightly perverse to single out the Guardian in talking about anti- whatever propaganda. As a reader of that organ I would admit it has a bias - that is why I read it.

But it doesn't hold a candle to the Mail, the Express, and the Sun, all of which for the most part are just plain nasty.

The latter category is comparable with the Mirror and People.

The Guardian and Independent (always anti Tory) are the biased competitors of the equally biased Telegraph,

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The latter category is comparable with the Mirror and People.

The Guardian and Independent (always anti Tory) are the biased competitors of the equally biased Telegraph,

 

[heathgate]

I think it more than slightly perverse to single out the Guardian in talking about anti- whatever propaganda. As a reader of that organ I would admit it has a bias - that is why I read it.

But it doesn't hold a candle to the Mail, the Express, and the Sun, all of which for the most part are just plain nasty.

Disagree.... the Guardian is a relentless torrent of anti everything.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

The latter category is comparable with the Mirror and People.

The Guardian and Independent (always anti Tory) are the biased competitors of the equally biased Telegraph,

Fair enough - but as a Guardian reader, I would actually see the Independent as more neutral.

And it's been obvious from the Guardian's letter pages over the last few days that plenty of its readers vote Tory and are Brexiteers, but no doubt many readers of any paper would not conform to the stereotypes.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Disagree.... the Guardian is a relentless torrent of anti everything.

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

Really? I don't recognise that analysis. I can understand people not liking the editorial stance of any newspaper, but I will often read things in the Guardian that I disagree with.