General Election predictions

[Thunder Bolt]

I am heartily sick of politics, and as I voted via post last week, I am spending some of today on Twitter, looking at #dogsatpollingstations

It's the best trend on there.

[tweet]872728496736530433[/tweet]

 

[martin tyler]

Tory 34 majority

 

[heathgate]

Unfortunately it looks like a comfortable Tory victory, I sincerely hope that it is limited in it's number and that therefore the extremes of the Tory ambitions are held in check. I had moments of hope as the gap narrowed but the hatchet job and Corbyn appears to have done the trick. I only hope that in years to come people reflect back on this campaign and hold May et al true to the promises that they have made, sadly I suspect not.

I also hope that at some point those of you who support the beneficiaries of the Mail/Sun campaign join us in recognising that a balanced and responsible media is actually, you know, a good thing!

Finally, and back on the subject of predictions - If, as is likely, May is back at number 10 on Friday we're going to be told to shut up and accept the result and that 'the people have spoken'. Each Tory bill will come with that mantra, 'it's democracy' they will say, 'you must accept the will of the people'. Fear not, we will dust ourselves down and carry on fighting the good fight. Campaigning, protesting, whingeing, moaning, call it what you like.....

How does your desire for a balanced media sit with the constant stream of anti Tory anti Brexit propoganda that originates through the Guardian in particular..... Observer too... a lot of it very 'pointed' and personal, and a lot if it very smoothly cascaded around social media by the very tech savvy and politically aware Momentum type groups?

I am assuming you wanted proper balance,.. not just a balance that suits your personal points of view.?

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[mikeyjh]

How does your desire for a balanced media sit with the constant stream of anti Tory anti Brexit propoganda that originates through the Guardian in particular..... Observer too... a lot of it very 'pointed' and personal, and a lot if it very smoothly cascaded around social media by the very tech savvy and politically aware Momentum type groups?

I am assuming you wanted proper balance,.. not just a balance that suits your personal points of view.?

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Yes, absolutely.

 

[heathgate]

Blimey, the eve of the election and the first poll that predicts a lead for Labour

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner

This is an outlier, surely. Most polls have a hardening of the Tory vote

Originally created to be part of the Guardian Media Group.... I suspect it's readership and pollsters are somewhat left leaning.

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[Pavilionaire]

The terrorist atrocities were a game-changer for Theresa May. She was on the ropes over the dementia tax but then fate dealt her a trump card - security, the chance to put soldiers and police armed to the teeth on our streets, to talk up Corbyn's IRA sympathies and record of voting against every bit of anti-terror legislation proposed. And, of course, it thrust the Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott into the spotlight and into eventual meltdown.

The cautious optimism around the time of May's no-show in the leadership debate has now gone. There is an inevitability about the result of this GE and it is intensely depressing. With police numbers so low the terrorists appear to have an open door, while a year after the referendum I've yet to hear of ANY semblance of a Brexit plan from this government.

 

[Gwylan]

Originally created to be part of the Guardian Media Group.... I suspect it's readership and pollsters are somewhat left leaning.

I don't know where you get that information from but Qriously was set up by three Austrian with private venture capital - it has no connection that I can see with the Guardian.

And even if it did, it's worth pointing out that YouGov was set up by Tories and is the only research company that predicts a hung parliament.

I think the main problem with Quriously is not its political leanings but its methodology, drawing its conclusions from social media, I suspect that its demographic is wildly out

 

[JC Footy Genius]

This thread seems to be morphing into a post-mortem get the excuses in early thread. Not buying the terrorist attacks saved May line yes they ran a poor campaign but many commentators predicted the polls would narrow, they usually do. May was riding incredibly high it was likely she would only head in one direction and Corbyn was down and out so curbing his true nature (angry petulance) and appearing calm and amiable playing the plucky underdog gave him a predictable boost. Weeks of breathless campaigning and manifesto launches and we will end up roughly where most people expected .. a decisive Tory win against a poor opponent.

 

[beorhthelm]

The terrorist atrocities were a game-changer for Theresa May. She was on the ropes over the dementia tax but then fate dealt her a trump card - security, the chance to put soldiers and police armed to the teeth on our streets, to talk up Corbyn's IRA sympathies and record of voting against every bit of anti-terror legislation proposed. And, of course, it thrust the Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott into the spotlight and into eventual meltdown.

The cautious optimism around the time of May's no-show in the leadership debate has now gone. There is an inevitability about the result of this GE and it is intensely depressing. With police numbers so low the terrorists appear to have an open door, while a year after the referendum I've yet to hear of ANY semblance of a Brexit plan from this government.

Corbyn's links were known and discussed before that incident and were always a liability. if Labour dont do well its because they didn't convince as many voters they can deliver as the cheerleaders believe.

 

[pb21]

Not buying the terrorist attacks saved May line.

I don't think they saved May, the Tories were always going to win this despite May's best effort, but the terrorist attacks have, to quote [MENTION=258]Pavilionaire[/MENTION], gave May "the chance to put soldiers and police armed to the teeth on our streets, to talk up Corbyn's IRA sympathies and record of voting against every bit of anti-terror legislation proposed."

IMO this strengthened May's weakening hand.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I don't think they saved May, the Tories were always going to win this despite May's best effort, but the terrorist attacks have, to quote [MENTION=258]Pavilionaire[/MENTION], gave May "the chance to put soldiers and police armed to the teeth on our streets, to talk up Corbyn's IRA sympathies and record of voting against every bit of anti-terror legislation proposed."

IMO this strengthened May's weakening hand.

It also gave Corbyn the chance to go big on Police numbers which played well for them.

 

[sparkie]

...while a year after the referendum I've yet to hear of ANY semblance of a Brexit plan from this government.

It seems their negotiating 'plan' is just to wing it, shout and strop.

 

[pb21]

It also gave Corbyn the chance to go big on Police numbers which played well for them.

But IMO not as well as the the chance to put soldiers and police armed to the teeth on our streets, to talk up Corbyn's IRA sympathies and record of voting against every bit of anti-terror legislation proposed.

 

[Scunner]

These guys are serious analysts for the money markets - which is why I have just shorted the EURO/GBP line and lumped on GBP/USD to the tune of about £500. I suggest you do the same.

Labour is going to get mashed. Which is good for a softer Brexit, for those that actually understand politics, and good for the Labour party. Because they will rid themselves of a group of marxist c*nts.

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/872509420336447491

 

[beorhthelm]

It seems their negotiating 'plan' is just to wing it, shout and strop.

i reckon their negotiation plan simply includes not having public discussion about their negotiation plan, thus weakening any position in negotiations.

 

[soistes]

Labour is going to get mashed. Which is good for a softer Brexit, for those that actually understand politics, and good for the Labour party.

Not sure I completely follow the argument about why a thrashing for Labour is "good for a softer Brexit". Could you elucidate?

 

[Gwylan]

Not sure I completely follow the argument about why a thrashing for Labour is "good for a softer Brexit". Could you elucidate?

Because May wants a massive Tory majority to negate the headbangers in her party who do want a hard Brexit - there are people who want the UK out of the EU at any cost, even if means considerable economic disaster. May wants a Parliament packed with Tories so the headbangers can't cause trouble.

This does of course mean that no hardcore sceptics are in the new batch of MPs.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

These guys are serious analysts for the money markets - which is why I have just shorted the EURO/GBP line and lumped on GBP/USD to the tune of about £500. I suggest you do the same.

Labour is going to get mashed. Which is good for a softer Brexit, for those that actually understand politics, and good for the Labour party. Because they will rid themselves of a group of marxist c*nts.

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/872509420336447491

What about for those of us who are too dumb to understand politics?

 

[Scunner]

Put it this way - if you think that TM called this election to obtain a majority that would enable a hard brexit, then you are not up to speed on politics and probably operate in an echo chamber of tribal loyalties. (on both extremes).

 

[Triggaaar]

The terrorist atrocities were a game-changer for Theresa May. She was on the ropes over the dementia tax but then fate dealt her a trump card - security, the chance to put soldiers and police armed to the teeth on our streets

Surely this has helped Labour, as the Tories are blamed for reducing the number of police on our streets.