[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Audax]

It does matter.

A 200 majority gives him absolute carte blange, there will never be a large enough opposing faction within his own party. A majority of 10 means there absolutely will. It makes a huge difference.

A lot of people said the same about the majority that Boris won in 2019. Look where that ended up. At the end of the day, party unity / disunity is more relevant than the size of the majority.

Anyway, the point is: constitutionally the size of the majority is irrelevant. A party with a majority of 10 that has perfect unity still has carte blanche. A party with a majority of 100+ that is fractured might not.

We saw the Tories over the last 5 years or so shelve a host of legislation and/or modify it significantly off the back of significant fracturing that resulted in Sunak having to flip-flop from appeasing the right wing or centrist elements in the party, because those factions had the numbers to cause him headaches. A notional majority of 80 meant a faction of at least 41 (just 11.2% of their total seat count) could be a problem - and we saw exactly that play out.

Odds are that Labour will get a much larger majority than 80. And you're right ... as the majority increases, the size of any dissenting faction within Labour would need to be larger to create problems for Starmer. But it would still be a minority faction within Labour that could overturn the majority (with help from unity on the opposition benches). The reality is, Labour looks like a far more unified party than the Tories have been. I don't think we'll see factionalism leading to parliamentary bottlenecks to anywhere near the extent we saw it over the last 5 years.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes and no.

If the majority was 10, he would effectively require 100% of Labour MP's support, from all wings. The bigger the majority the less Labour MPs he needs on his side to get stuff through.

yes, there is clearly a practical difference between and 10 and 100 seat majority. dont know why the term supermajority its bothering anyone beyond a bit of mocking at the panic, it's almost a coordinated response.

 

[Rdodge30]

I think the term super majority is being used in entirely the wrong context, comparing it to the super majority required to pass some votes in the US and quite rightly that doesn’t apply here as it is not required in Parliament.

( incidentally the repeal of the fixed term parliament act was a manifesto pledge in both the Conservative AND Labour manifesto at that time).

500+ seats in the house would though effectively be an untouchable majority allowing a Government to pass anything through the house they choose regardless of 100 of their MPs breaking a 3 line whip. Use of The Parliament Act could then force anything through a reluctant upper house.

However that would not necessarily be a bad thing in this instance as it is the most likely way of effecting change.

 

[TomandJerry]

Labour candidates and activists are privately braced for a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s hard-right Reform UK in north-west England and the Midlands, with some forecasting a margin of fewer than 2,000 votes between the two parties in some seats in Thursday’s general election.

In certain Conservative-held seats, campaigners told the Guardian that the Tories were likely to be pushed into third place by Reform, with one citing the phenomenon of “shy Reformers” affecting the results.

 

[beorhthelm]

Labour candidates and activists are privately braced for a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s hard-right Reform UK in north-west England and the Midlands, with some forecasting a margin of fewer than 2,000 votes between the two parties in some seats in Thursday’s general election.

In certain Conservative-held seats, campaigners told the Guardian that the Tories were likely to be pushed into third place by Reform, with one citing the phenomenon of “shy Reformers” affecting the results.

maybe its the leader, i struggle with the concept of "shy" Reformer. methinks this is also Labour shoring up their vote: dont be complacent or Reform might nick it. otherwise they are saying they have lost lots of votes to Reform, which would be a cause for concern.

 

[oldboyroy]

99% does seem pretty safe, but the Reform lot are beating their drums pretty hard....surely not.

It's hard to tell up here. All friends I've spoken to when politics comes up say they're voting reform albeit, around 10 that I've chatted with over the last week. They all say no, not labour so guessing reform will get a large vote. 1 things for sure, they want the tory out!

 

[HH Brighton]

Sums it up brilliantly

 

[oldboyroy]

maybe its the leader, i struggle with the concept of "shy" Reformer. methinks this is also Labour shoring up their vote: dont be complacent or Reform might nick it. otherwise they are saying they have lost lots of votes to Reform, which would be a cause for concern.

Think Reform will take a lot of the vote totals. Here in Birmingham everyone seems to say they are voting for them! Could we see an election seismic shift that the polls are missing? Reform to be opposition?

 

[oldboyroy]

I am voting Labour. I am not totally convinced by the Starmer version. Still, I hope we will return to some competent, sensible, and disciplined politics that might give the country a fighting chance of improving albeit slowly.
I think the country underestimates the collective trauma of living through the last 14 years (and the last 5 in particular). The consent uncertainty, in fighting changes of PM and government has made it impossible to tackle the key issues we've been paralysed.
I hope on Friday we wake up to a Labour government with a working majority (I doubt it will be as big as people say), one that is willing to serve and do what needs doing, and one that grows in confidence and boldness to tackle the issues we face.
I hope Friday will feel like a new dawn, one of hope and positivity for a country that has been utterly battered for 14 miserable years.

Couldn't put it better myself. I hope they get a huge majority or either Lib dems and Reform get many that pushes the tories back to 4th!

 

[oldboyroy]

Can someone give me a prediction on how many seats labour will win please

326

 

[oldboyroy]

The Sun has announced its backing Labour. It knows the tories have no chance?

 

[Zeberdi]

Carrow Road in the Labour Constituency of South Norwich has been glowing red this week but nobody has an explanation

 

[Bry Nylon]

Shane Duffy's breathalyzer test result?

 

[TomandJerry]

Rishi Sunak has confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election, the Guardian has been told.

The prime minister, who would be the first sitting leader of the country to lose his seat, told confidants before a Conservative rally on Tuesday that he thought the vote in Richmond and Northallerton was too close to call.

 

[medwayseagull reborn]

It's hard to tell up here. All friends I've spoken to when politics comes up say they're voting reform albeit, around 10 that I've chatted with over the last week. They all say no, not labour so guessing reform will get a large vote. 1 things for sure, they want the tory out!

Get some new friends.

 

[mikeyjh]

The Sun has announced its backing Labour. It knows the tories have no chance?

Have a look at the Telegraph page, they're in no such mood of acceptance!

 

[TomandJerry]

 

[TomandJerry]

Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister.

The Labour leader told reporters on Wednesday he did not think Britain would go back into any of the three blocs while he was alive, all but ruling out rejoining even if he wins a second term in office.

 

[TomandJerry]

 

[BBassic]

The Sun announces it is switching its support to Labour on eve of election​

The Sun backs Labour on eve of election as Times also offers cautious support

After years of critical coverage, tabloid backs Labour for first election since 2005, saying: ‘It is time for a change’

www.theguardian.com

Rats.