[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[A1X]

Is it me?

This campaign has become 'presidential to me, certainly from the tories. Every other party leader has 'subbed' out some roles whereas Sunk in the last couple of weeks is mostly going it alone.

Several reasons IMHO;

- A lot of senior Tories retiring so don’t care (Gove etc)
- More senior Tories scrapping for their own seats (Shapps, Cleverley, Hunt)
- High turnover of leaders meaning disgruntled people lurking in shadows (Boris, Truss, Dorries)

 

[Pinkie Brown]

I go by the individual, how extreme are they. Trump’s new mate Truss losing would be enjoyable, due also to the financial hurt she caused.

Moderate, Remain Tory’s losing won’t do anything for me. I remember the Bitter Left getting overly excited when the likes of Chris Patten lost in 92 …. as if they were all neo-fascists …. I worked with an unhinged angry bloke who was like that. Some solace after Labour blew it.

The difference between 92 and indeed recent elections, there really aren't any moderate tories left. The Rory Stewarts and Dominic Grieve's of the party were driven out by Johnson during his spiteful purge. Mostly replaced by red wall intellectually challenged gobs-on-a-stick like Anderson et al. Patten was interviewed recently lamenting the current state for the tory party. Basically saying it was tory in name only with the right extremes having taken over.

 

[Eeyore]

Looking forward to some Portillo results on Thursday.

My most wanted boot out is Rees-Mogg, but Truss would be another funny one, even Sunak is possible. Braverman would be wonderful. And what if Farage actually fails ?

Lots of potential entertainment on Thursday/Friday.

Rees-Mogg would be fun but he would be magnanimous in defeat though. I'm not sure he would be too bothered. It wouldn't be quite a Portillo moment. Truss, with a face like a bag of tin tacs, would be sight to behold. She would then say that it was all down to her world changing political philosophy being ditched as she does a tour of all good charity shops promoting her book.

 

[Weststander]

The difference between 92 and indeed recent elections, there really aren't any moderate tories left. The Rory Stewarts and Dominic Grieve's of the party were driven out by Johnson during his spiteful purge. Mostly replaced by red wall intellectually challenged gobs-on-a-stick like Anderson et al. Patten was interviewed recently lamenting the current state for the tory party. Basically saying it was tory in name only with the right extremes having taken over.

Definitely a shift to the right, also some would have cynically changed their lifelong views to keep in line. For example, on the EU. I’ve witnessed some cringy mental gymnastics in the last 10 days, some (ex) Tory MP’s already maneuvering with “I’ve always considered Nigel a friend” in media interviews.

But imho within the 365 elected in 2019 there would’ve been a huge number who most would consider moderate, Heseltine type Tories.

I do find it interesting/predictable how non-Tories who despised Major/Rudd/Grieve/Heseltine/Soubry etc as part of the enemy in say 2009, very belatedly thought they’re okay people. I think they were all along. But lifelong Tory haters, normally because one of their parents passed on entrenched and rigid thinking, just wouldn’t evaluate individuals beyond blue v red.

Looking forward …. let’s say the Tories are de facto finished. At the 2029 GE et al, how on earth will Reform, LibDems and SNP collecting get close to 325 seats? No Western democracy has one party with overall control by themselves forever. I can only think that some world crises, a recession, Putin waging further genocides and illegal wars will eventually hurt Labour.

 

[A1X]

Looking forward …. let’s say the Tories are de facto finished. At the 2029 GE et al, how on earth will Reform, LibDems and SNP collecting get close to 325 seats? No Western democracy has one party with overall control by themselves forever. I can only think that some world crises, a recession, Putin waging further genocides and illegal wars will eventually hurt Labour.

It has happened before with the collapse of the Liberal party after the First World War. The inter-war years were essentially dominated by the Tories (other than a brief interlude under Ramsey MacDonald) and it took the Second World War to shift the dial and bring in Labour as the serious contender.

 

[raymondo]

Apparently the Tories are bricking it about Sunak, he’s been in his own constituency several days this week whereas usually the PM’s seat is a slam dunk

I think he'd have More chance in his own constituency if he WASN'T there

 

[Weststander]

It has happened before with the collapse of the Liberal party after the First World War. The inter-war years were essentially dominated by the Tories (other than a brief interlude under Ramsey MacDonald) and it took the Second World War to shift the dial and bring in Labour as the serious contender.

It finished the Liberals for 40 years until relatively modest revivals under Grimond, Ashdown and Clegg.

I wonder if right wing Tories and Reform would formally merge. For the first time since Mosley, the UK would have a party akin to National Rally in France. Historians and political scientists would look back at Sunak, Mitchell, Tugendhat and Hunt as the last of the non neo-fascists.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Remember on Thursday it could be a once in a century event. Vote Labour for Starmergeddon and LibDem for Sunakalypse Now.

 

[A1X]

Oops.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Definitely a shift to the right, also some would have cynically changed their lifelong views to keep in line. For example, on the EU. I’ve witnessed some cringy mental gymnastics in the last 10 days, some (ex) Tory MP’s already maneuvering with “I’ve always considered Nigel a friend” in media interviews.

But imho within the 365 elected in 2019 there would’ve been a huge number who most would consider moderate, Heseltine type Tories.

I do find it interesting/predictable how non-Tories who despised Major/Rudd/Grieve/Heseltine/Soubry etc as part of the enemy in say 2009, very belatedly thought they’re okay people. I think they were all along. But lifelong Tory haters, normally because one of their parents passed on entrenched and rigid thinking, just wouldn’t evaluate individuals beyond blue v red.

Looking forward …. let’s say the Tories are de facto finished. At the 2029 GE et al, how on earth will Reform, LibDems and SNP collecting get close to 325 seats? No Western democracy has one party with overall control by themselves forever. I can only think that some world crises, a recession, Putin waging further genocides and illegal wars will eventually hurt Labour.

Labour's support will evaporate if they can't bail us out of the current situation without forming 'closer ties' with Europe ('Brexit betrayal') and somehow fixing public services without cuts and/or tax rises in the next 12 months.

The interesting thing is whether the Tories will lurch further right in response, into 'Truss waters' with added Farage, or whether they will go 'one nation' with centre right old-school tory values with a modern twist. The former could happen tomorrow with any number of goons available to grasp the chalice. I am nor sure they have anyone yet who could grasp the nettle and 'go moderate' though.

 

[Weststander]

Labour's support will evaporate if they can't bail us out of the current situation without forming 'closer ties' with Europe ('Brexit betrayal') and somehow fixing public services without cuts and/or tax rises in the next 12 months.

The interesting thing is whether the Tories will lurch further right in response, into 'Truss waters' with added Farage, or whether they will go 'one nation' with centre right old-school tory values with a modern twist. The former could happen tomorrow with any number of goons available to grasp the chalice. I am nor sure they have anyone yet who could grasp the nettle and 'go moderate' though.

My instinct is to the right. Huge numbers of blue rinsers and CFC-esque little Britain oafs in the constituencies are blaming your friend Sunak for being a high taxation liberal, the wrong creed?, for everything under the sun. I’ve never done newspaper politics, but being a Telegraph subscriber for other interests, I did have a glance at the comments on recent polling. Reform/Truss type now dominate, although the DT itself is anti Reform. Funny thing was, I posted half a dozen posts against Truss and Farage, all polite and objective, one was deleted by a moderator , the others were widely pilloried.

If I’m right, there’ll be a party that might get 30% in future GE’s, see France and Italy. The Africa/climate change cause thing isn’t going away. But god I hope not. Annoyingly we’re going to see an awful lot more of Parker from Thunderbirds in the years to come.

 

[Motogull]

Patten was interviewed recently lamenting the current state for the tory party. Basically saying it was tory in name only with the right extremes having taken over.

A clever person I was speaking to last week said that the tories are effectively UKIP at the moment. We both felt that Farage joining would split the party and make it potentially even less supported.

 

[Eeyore]

Looks like he'll be out before England now..

 

[A1X]

Looks like he'll be out before England now..

Imagine his morning pep talk

“…and if Jude Bellingham can produce an overhead equaliser in the 95th minute, maybe…just maybe…we can keep hold of Tunbridge Wells on Thursday!”

 

[aolstudios]

Looks like he'll be out before England now..

Yep. Someone asked if the prime minister would be attending the England v Switzerland quarter final on Saturday.
It won't be him

 

[abc]

The results of the French election are sobering this morning. Akin to us facing a Farage government on Friday. Those who criticise Starmer for bringing Labour back to somewhere near the political centre should take note. If Labour was still controlled by the Corbynistas of this world we could easily be seeing a big shift to the hard right across the country

 

[Hugo Rune]

The results of the French election are sobering this morning. Akin to us facing a Farage government on Friday. Those who criticise Starmer for bringing Labour back to somewhere near the political centre should take note. If Labour was still controlled by the Corbynistas of this world we could easily be seeing a big shift to the hard right across the country

I don’t think they’d care. Like the SNP, they realise they need a successful hard right and/or Tory government to give their perma-opposition any legitimacy or meaning. The hard left will be at it’s weakest next week with a possible Labour supermajority. Rather than ‘playing nicely’ and working within the party to move them to the left, I think we might see a breakaway. A breakaway that will soon be consigned to oblivion.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?​

One of the defining images of the Conservative era came before the election that brought it into being. The infamous photo of David Cameron and Boris Johnson at Oxford University’s elitist Bullingdon Club.

By Friday morning, Britain could have its most state-educated cabinet in decades. The shadow cabinet heading into the general election is 77.5% state-educated, with seven out of 31 members having attended fee-paying schools.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time#:~:text=Jon Ashworth, the shadow paymaster,of defining socio-economic class.

It's almost as if they haven't realised that privately educated, ex city trader Nigel Farage is the real 'man of the people'

 

[Withdean South Stand]

Brutal truths.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

So here we are. It’s election week. Labour victory, 100% done. Let’s go!