[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Zeberdi]

Yep I think so too. Weather getting better, the sunny uplands approaching. Another six months for people to forget just how bad the last 13 years have been

Yes, - but it won’t be the weather that will make some people forget - it will be the NIC cuts, especially the changes for class 2 self-employed assessments (a big gain for my family (not sure about class 3?)

Edit - it doesn’t change the fact that the Tories are no longer the party to be trusted with the economy or anything and the majority of the electorate know that judging by most opinion pollls

 

[jcdenton08]

Not Ivor "Jest Ye Not Madam" Biggun, of the Standing At The Back Dressed Stupidly And Looking Stupid Party?

By an extraordinary stroke of luck, my constituency is a rotten borough…

 

[Is it PotG?]

I don’t currently see a path for the Conservative Party to win the next election, but they have a united and organised network of client journalists across the Mail, Express, Sun, Times and Telegraph, plus I suspect @Is it PotG? still watches GBeebies, so there’s at least one vote won for them there.

See post #19

 

[bhafc99]

Remember, the Tory mindset is ALWAYS to look after No.1 and your own selfish interests above all else. Slimy Sunak is the antithesis of this mindset.

Umm, did you mean that? That he’s the opposite of a typical selfish Tory?

 

[Bob!]

Yes, I think it will be a May election too - but it won’t be the weather that will make some people forget - it will be the NIC cuts, especially the changes for class 2 self-employed assessments (a big gain for my family (not sure about class 3?)

Edit - it doesn’t change the fact that the Tories are no longer the party to be trusted with the economy or anything and the majority of the electorate know that judging by most opinion pollls

Well, it looks like yesterday's bribe on NI will be wiped out anyway.

BBC News - Energy price cap will rise in January adding pressure on households

Energy price cap will rise in January adding pressure on households

A new domestic energy price cap has been announced leading to higher bills for millions.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Hotchilidog]

Please can we have an early election. The NI tax cut certainly seems like a cheap electoral gimmick designed to rally the base and minimise losses.

Labour will win the election but if the Tories can win back a few Reform voters they can prevent an absolute disaster.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

We need an election asap. These last 13 years, and particularly the last 7 (since THAT vote) have been awful, not just personally, but economically and also in terms of eroding our democracy and rights. We desperately need this lot out of power and a fresh start.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Please can we have an early election. The NI tax cut certainly seems like a cheap electoral gimmick designed to rally the base and minimise losses.

Labour will win the election but if the Tories can win back a few Reform voters they can prevent an absolute disaster.

NI cuts mean nothing to pensioners who don't pay it. Higher fuel bills will cut deep for them.
Pensioners are already beginning to see the difference between the old and 'new' pension rises, which is upsetting more than just the 50s women.
Seeing as how many see pensioners as the backbone of Tory voters, this seems like putting the boot in.

 

[WATFORD zero]

See post #19

I'll file post #19 along with these two

I am a little old fashioned in this respect.

When I voted (don't anymore, live in a very blue constituency), I voted for the Party, not any individual.

Just been to plant my 'X', reassuring that the rain doesn't seem to have deterred the wrinklies at my local.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

NI cuts mean nothing to pensioners who don't pay it. Higher fuel bills will cut deep for them.
Pensioners are already beginning to see the difference between the old and 'new' pension rises, which is upsetting more than just the 50s women.
Seeing as how many see pensioners as the backbone of Tory voters, this seems like putting the boot in.

They had a good innings ... let them die. Not my words, they belong to Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, according to the Covid enquiry). Quite an odd way to treat your base.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

They had a good innings ... let them die. Not my words, they belong to Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, according to the Covid enquiry). Quite an odd way to treat your base.

Revolting, but the media most of my generation read won't report it.
There are times when I wish I was already gone (don't worry, folks, I'm not going to anything daft) as the world has gone backwards. I feel so sorry for my grandchildren.

 

[WATFORD zero]

They had a good innings ... let them die. Not my words, they belong to Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, according to the Covid enquiry). Quite an odd way to treat your base.

It is incredible that even after they've been treated with complete and utter contempt, millions of them will still vote for more of the same

 

[Is it PotG?]

I'll file post #19 along with these two

If you take a little more time out of your day, there are more posts than these.

 

[Hotchilidog]

NI cuts mean nothing to pensioners who don't pay it. Higher fuel bills will cut deep for them.
Pensioners are already beginning to see the difference between the old and 'new' pension rises, which is upsetting more than just the 50s women.
Seeing as how many see pensioners as the backbone of Tory voters, this seems like putting the boot in.

Oh I completely agree, but the Tories will still pick up the vast majority of the pensioner vote though, more for cultural reasons rather than financial thought. Any votes the tories can claw back from gullible workers could make the difference between a wipeout and a more manageable defeat.

If the Tories start to lose the over 60 vote then they will disappear.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Oh I completely agree, but the Tories will still pick up the vast majority of the pensioner vote though, more for cultural reasons rather than financial thought. Any votes the tories can claw back from gullible workers could make the difference between a wipeout and a more manageable defeat.

If the Tories start to lose the over 60 vote then they will disappear.

If my local area is indicative (and I think it probably is for a certain demographic) all the pensioners I see out whilst I'm walking the dog in the morning come home with a Daily Mail tucked under their arm. They possibly know no better.

 

[Zeberdi]

NI cuts mean nothing to pensioners who don't pay it. Higher fuel bills will cut deep for them.
Pensioners are already beginning to see the difference between the old and 'new' pension rises, which is upsetting more than just the 50s women.
Seeing as how many see pensioners as the backbone of Tory voters, this seems like putting the boot in.

The Triple Pension Lock was confirmed in the budget yesterday which means pensions will rise by 8.8%

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2023/11/22/state-pension-to-rise-8-5-as-triple-lock-confirmed/#:~:text=Hunt%20said%20the%20triple%20lock,high%20inflation%2C”%20he%20said.

Pensioners also get between £300-600 in winter fuel allowances and pensioners on Pension Credit can also get £25 per week cold weather allowance on top of winter fuel allowances.

I am not defending the Tories or trying to undermine the fact pensioners are struggling but the higher fuel bills will effect most those people on low incomes who are below pension age but not in receipt of benefits who get no extra help at all.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Absolutely, I think Sunak has to hold the general election before the local elections.

If results are bad in the local elections, Sunak will certainly be challenged for the leadership by one of the far right frothers currently infesting the Conservative Party, so I don’t think he can afford to wait.

His only chance of retaining power and keeping the Conservatives at least partially out of the far-right’s grip is to call the election and rely on the general public having really short memories. (Spoiler: they do)

I don’t currently see a path for the Conservative Party to win the next election, but they have a united and organised network of client journalists across the Mail, Express, Sun, Times and Telegraph, plus I suspect @Is it PotG? still watches GBeebies, so there’s at least one vote won for them there.

The attack dogs are going to be relentlessly focused on Starmer/Labour from the New Year onward, Starmer is going to have to continue his policy of making himself and Labour as small a target as possible right up to election day.

None of the media outlets listed above have enough clout to swing an election individually, but cumulatively they have the effect on people’s minds that “if they’re all saying it, it must be true.”

I wouldn’t include the Times so readily. I subscribed to the Times for a long time, until I decided the subs were too high, but I was constantly struck by how critical of the Tories they are. Just look at today's headlines which are all about the tax increases and no focus on what Hunt would perceive as benefits. I think it’s easily as close to being evenhanded as any national paper.

I get quite fed up by the 'tyrannical MSM' moaning. Both left and right are represented by the papers, and people will read what they feel most comfortable with. There’s the Guardian, Mirror, Independent, the i, on the left, and Mail, Telegraph, Express, Sun on the other side. Just read what you want, and let others read what they want.

 

[ClemFandango]

NI cuts mean nothing to pensioners who don't pay it. Higher fuel bills will cut deep for them.
Pensioners are already beginning to see the difference between the old and 'new' pension rises, which is upsetting more than just the 50s women.
Seeing as how many see pensioners as the backbone of Tory voters, this seems like putting the boot in.

Pensioners got an £18 a week rise yesterday and the triple lock protected, they ain’t doing too badly

 

[HeaviestTed]

NIC reductions would suggest a May election (allowing for the March budget first for further bribes) - since these are being implemented on January 6 rather than in the new tax year, I‘m guessing the tax carrots need a few months for the electorate to digest them and benefit from them before going to the polls.

From what I understand the ni changes will mean people have an extra £45 a month - if that is all then I don’t think people will even see it as a tax cut?

 

[chickens]

I wouldn’t include the Times so readily. I subscribed to the Times for a long time, until I decided the subs were too high, but I was constantly struck by how critical of the Tories they are. Just look at today's headlines which are all about the tax increases and no focus on what Hunt would perceive as benefits. I think it’s easily as close to being evenhanded as any national paper.

I get quite fed up by the 'tyrannical MSM' moaning. Both left and right are represented by the papers, and people will read what they feel most comfortable with. There’s the Guardian, Mirror, Independent, the i, on the left, and Mail, Telegraph, Express, Sun on the other side. Just read what you want, and let others read what they want.

I’m sorry, but I have to disagree with you. There are newspapers to the left of the titles I mentioned above, but there’s little to no coordination in their output. The Mirror’s a joke, the Independent will criticize everybody, and the Guardian is an oddball as it doesn’t have an owner in the traditional sense, which can be both a blessing and a curse. It seems to have become increasingly confused and woolly as time has gone on, with the exception of some genuine investigative reporting which none of the other papers touch and doesn’t get the kudos it deserves from across the political spectrum.

The right-leaning titles have (and I would say this is quite a recent phenomenon) organized to a hitherto unknown degree. They take the same cues, parrot the same information and toe the same lines between them. However, I would agree that you can find dissenting opinions/voices in the Times, far more than you can in the Telegraph for example. And I agree people should read what they want to read.

My question for you is: does the revolving door between the current cabinet and the Daily Mail/GBeebies not give you any cause for concern?

Added there’s a genuine game of “capture the flag” going on for the Telegraph right now, and most of those bidding want to increase the amount of US style “divide and conquer” politics that we import.

Look at America, currently tearing itself apart in almost every regard, and tell me that this style of politics is something we should be encouraging.

The reason it’s so important to fire the Conservatives so far from power that they leave earth’s atmosphere at the upcoming elections, is to send a clear signal to the US Conservatives bankrolling this that we won’t stick it at any price.