General Election 2015

[Bry Nylon]

It's tough to call. My own expectation is that Miliband will be PM, but in an unstable coalition which won't last.

I too think that is a likely outcome. The only thing that ultimately dissuades me is that the SNP are on course to take 50 odd seats from Labour. I just don't see where Labour will compensate for a loss of seats on that magnitude (and then some more) south of the border. If the SNP only take 20 or 30 seats from Labour then I would say Ed is a shoe-in, but it really does look like Labour are going to be wiped out in Scotland this time around.

 

[larus]

I too think that is a likely outcome. The only thing that ultimately dissuades me is that the SNP are on course to take 50 odd seats from Labour. I just don't see where Labour will compensate for a loss of seats on that magnitude (and then some more) south of the border. If the SNP only take 20 or 30 seats from Labour then I would say Ed is a shoe-in, but it really does look like Labour are going to be wiped out in Scotland this time around.

One projection I saw was 270 Labour and 48 SNP. Conservative 283 Lib-Dem 24. Niether 'group' would have a majority, and the Lib-Dems won't support Lab/SNP (IMO). Very interesting times....

 

[jimbob5]

I don't really follow politiks. Whoo s that bloke who said he's goner sort the immigrants out. I think I might vote for him.

 

[clapham_gull]

I've been unlucky to have always lived in ultra safe seats and refuse to vote nationally now. I always get out locally though.

However fascinated by this election. Particularly how polarised the rhetoric is and how the two main parties are both at a dismal percentage.

Not sure who the hell does Cameron's PR. I have next to no time with Russell Brand but his attack on Milliband for simply being interviewed by him was idiotic.

Slightly odd choice by Milliband - but subsequently appears to be a masterstroke simply because of Cameron's response.

Attacking somebody for challenging somebody who is asking people not to vote ?

It's all become about holding onto the core vote and nothing else. Depressing but fascinating to observe.

 

[Soulman]

I too think that is a likely outcome. The only thing that ultimately dissuades me is that the SNP are on course to take 50 odd seats from Labour. I just don't see where Labour will compensate for a loss of seats on that magnitude (and then some more) south of the border. If the SNP only take 20 or 30 seats from Labour then I would say Ed is a shoe-in, but it really does look like Labour are going to be wiped out in Scotland this time around.

Seems laughable really. Looks like the Scots are going to support SNP after years of supporting Labour......then the SNP are going to join up with Labour (after the Scots have turned their backs on them) in the government.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Have to say, none of the main parties have had good campaigns. This campaign is crying out for one of the parties to say, "fvck it", bet the farm and set out a bold, clear vision on the 3 or 4 major issues facing the country. Nobody is cutting through.

 

[Ernest]

Hey [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] normal service resumed

Tonight's YouGov:

CON 34% (-1)
LAB 35% (+1)
LD 9%
UKIP 12%
GRN 4% (-1)

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

I'm not claiming I've done a scientific study on it, but it appears I'm not alone in my suspicions. See this from politicalbetting.com:

The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering.

Looking at the Press Association expected declaration timings we are not going to get much on these seats before 1am when the Nuneaton result is scheduled.

This Midlands seat is LAB target number 32 from CON in England and Wales which would change hands on a 2.32% swing. A successful CON defence would be a good pointer to them winning most seats. A loss a bad one.

Nuneaton looks set also to be the first LAB-CON marginal in England and Wales where Lord Ashcroft has carried constituency polling. His last there, carried out in March, (see above) had LAB taking it on a 5% swing. What will be interesting for me is not just the result here but what it says about the many other 100 or so seats that Lord Ashcroft has polled which have had a big impact on constituency betting markets.

If on the night the Ashcroft polling prove to be good predictors then betting prices linked to his seat polls will harden. If not then the other way.

Now I know that Lord A describes his polls as snapshots but they have had a big impact on the betting. What is important is to look at the fieldwork dates. Polling done as far back as July might be less relevant.

I wonder why this is. I also wonder why he's released so many Scottish polls during the election proper period. Is it because he's a Tory, tax avoiding peer, that has bankrolled the party?
As Hong Kong Phooey says: Could be.

Is that a comment or an actual post?

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

Land mass is a third though. It's a significant chunk of the UK which ever way I look at it. They have recently spent more time than not being governed by a parliament 400 miles away, run by a party they don't vote for, so I think it's about time they had a stronger say in UK Politics.

Let's scrap democracy and let the land owners decide. That's fair. They know best.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

A belated Happy Ed Balls day!!

While we have you Mustafa any comment on the fact that UKIP are the only party that seem to be offering direct democracy options. Couldn't see anything from TUSC on it?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Land mass is a third though. It's a significant chunk of the UK which ever way I look at it. They have recently spent more time than not being governed by a parliament 400 miles away, run by a party they don't vote for, so I think it's about time they had a stronger say in UK Politics.

You've really excelled yourself there. Oh dear.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Let's scrap democracy and let the land owners decide. That's fair. They know best.

Can you read English?

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

Can you read English?

Yep. I can also read the blatant self justification of a partisan party follower that will justify pretty much anything if it leads to their party having power.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yep. I can also read the blatant self justification of a partisan party follower that will justify pretty much anything if it leads to their party having power.

I'm pleased your English is better than your geography. Now go back and read my posts fully, and don't just select one minor piece for twisting around to suit your agenda.

 

[janee]

When I hear the left wing candidates who oppose Austerity, I change that word to the phrase 'Living Within Your Means'. Then the arguments against austerity seem weak.

But scrapping trident or tax raises surely = living within your means.

What those who want huge cuts often forget is the added costs of service cuts. I work in housing and cutting social housing has led to billions of pounds increase in the housing benefit bill - all paid to private landlords. Also has an impact on health, social care and education budgets.

It's just not that simple

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

But scrapping trident or tax raises surely = living within your means.

Correct. Right wingers don't seem to understand this though. And I do find it odd that the Labour manifesto is fully costed yet there is a gaping 12bn hole in the Tory manifesto but the Tories supporters blather on about how they're the party of economic competence. Given yesterday's economic figures and the recent and shocking productivity figures coupled with debt doubling this clearly isn't the case. We need a change before the nation collapses; thankfully it's now only a week away.

 

[Kevlar]

I see the preliminary gdp figures for the first quarter of this year show
growth of 0.3% down from 0.6% for the last quarter of last year .
In terms of GDP growth per capita both would be weaker still.
It seems the slowest recovery in modern history is slowing down.
This is the plan that is working?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I see the preliminary gdp figures for the first quarter of this year show
growth of 0.3% down from 0.6% for the last quarter of last year .
In terms of GDP growth per capita both would be weaker still.
It seems the slowest recovery in modern history is slowing down.
This is the plan that is working?

Even Stevie Wonder can see the plan isn't working.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I see the preliminary gdp figures for the first quarter of this year show
growth of 0.3% down from 0.6% for the last quarter of last year .
In terms of GDP growth per capita both would be weaker still.
It seems the slowest recovery in modern history is slowing down.
This is the plan that is working?

Can you imagine the Tucker-esque scenes when they discovered that news coming out!

 

[ROSM]

Can you imagine the Tucker-esque scenes when they discovered that news coming out!

Well you could if there was any likelihood that the tory press would cover them in an honest way. But given that they currently have a poodle in number 10 who owes them loads now, and don't want the other guy who despite being abused and ridiculed by them for 5 years is within touching distance of number 10, that was never going to happen