General Election 2015

[Deleted member 22389]

Keep them coming. From recent polling it seems to be benefiting the Labour Party. And it's the very thing which most of the electorate despise in modern day politics; how much are they paying their strategic advisor again?

It worked for UKIP.

 

[Titanic]

YouGov/Sun poll (8-9 Apr):
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
UKIP 12 (-1)
LD 8 (=)
GRN 4 (-1)

Latest Scottish Westminster poll (YouGov 8/9 Apr):
SNP - 49% (+3)
LAB - 25% (-4)
CON - 18% (+2)
LDEM - 4% (+1)

 

[Titanic]

Before anyone comments on selectivity... here is another one from last night:

Latest ComRes/Daily Mail/ITVnews poll:

CON - 34%
LAB - 33%
LDEM - 12%
UKIP - 12%
GRN - 4%

 

[Monsieur Le Plonk]

Just read it: what a totally bizarre story. There's no indication of any wrong-doing on anyone's part, no infidelity, no unusual sexual activity, just that he had some relationships before meeting his wife. That's probably the story of 99% of all married men or women. What on earth was Tory central office thinking when it came up with that one?

It's staggering.

If it was a game of football the tories would have been 3 - 0 up and coasting after 15 minutes against a team with no right to get back into the match. Now, after some inept managerial decisons and 3 Dunk own goals it's all square with 5 minutes left to play and the tories keep playing the man instead of the ball leading to direct free kicks in very dangerous positions.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Do you have any real knowledge of the methods these "newcomers" are using? And I'm also very interested to know what you mean by "untested" in statistical terms.

Part info is in previous post, also online only get responders who are active online biased towards younger which we know as every age group the younger you go the higher the red %ages.
On this thread there are more reds, they get involved more whereas 'older' Tories don't as much
Untested in as much as they have not had a General Election to 'Test, Learn,Enhance' their own levels of accuracy & its subsequent reporting. They have yet to have their first shag but are telling everyone how to do it....
Statistically the cheap & easy to set up online only polls should both come with a different Margin of Error warning and be given less credibility but interestingly neither seem to be case!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Part info is in previous post, also online only get responders who are active online biased towards younger which we know as every age group the younger you go the higher the red %ages.
On this thread there are more reds, they get involved more whereas 'older' Tories don't as much
Untested in as much as they have not had a General Election to 'Test, Learn,Enhance' their own levels of accuracy & its subsequent reporting. They have yet to have their first shag but are telling everyone how to do it....
Statistically the cheap & easy to set up online only polls should both come with a different Margin of Error warning and be given less credibility but interestingly neither seem to be case!

Just because their polling is online it doesn't mean they're all youngsters voting in-between Snapchat posts does it? The internet is used by a wide spectrum of ages. And the argument that they have no previous experience is nonsense as you have no idea who or what people make up the company in question; they might be a new company but made up of industry veterans. Also, polling methods, theories, philosophies and the science, the questions asked, as well as previous figures etc are all very well documented so a new company can easily come along and jump in using previous information; there are literally thousands of papers on the subject from across the world. To suggest a new company is completely green as it has no history is utter nonsense; the history is out their and readily available. To draw an analogy you would not expect a new bike company to only be able to initially make bone-shakers and penny farthings would you?

Your thoughts seem nothing more than stereotyping and guess work. You don't have any idea about the scientific and statistical rigour of these polls do you?

 

[alfredmizen]

Wonderful - please look at the Daily Mail tomorrow - the latest attack line on Ed M is that he's ****ed a lot of hot women in his life

Hot women ?? Ive just seen the article, christ only knows what your wife/girlfriend looks like if you class any of those munters as hot.......

 

[Hampster Gull]

Keep them coming. From recent polling it seems to be benefiting the Labour Party. And it's the very thing which most of the electorate despise in modern day politics; how much are they paying their strategic advisor again?

I agree it's distastful and unhelpful to their cause. Equally I do not think that the press that leans to the right will only publish articles if they are told to by the Tories. I am sure all parties lean on the press at this time in particular and will on occasions be successful but I do not believe that eg the mail now only publishes political articles that the Tories demand and that the guardian the same with labour.

Btw good to see some more poll results coming in. These feel better but polls a re one offs. The bbc poll of polls is a good indicator, and it's still neck and neck

 

[Bold Seagull]

Before anyone comments on selectivity... here is another one from last night:

Latest ComRes/Daily Mail/ITVnews poll:

CON - 34%
LAB - 33%
LDEM - 12%
UKIP - 12%
GRN - 4%

POPULUS
LABOUR 34%
CONS 31%
UKIP 16%
LIBS 8%

IPSOS MORI
LABOUR 34%
CONS 33%
UKIP 13%
LIBS 8%

TNS-BMRB
LABOUR 33%
CONS 30%
UKIP 19%
LIBS 8%

Always so balanced with your poll selections Titanic!!

 

[beorhthelm]

it was a pretty piss poor showing yesturday on the "back stabbing" story. the fact Labour might give away trident was completely lost. its made me realise that generally, this campagin so far has been poor with negative stories rather than selling what party will do positively, and seemingly a single daily policy announcement. whens the real electioneering going to start?

 

[Hampster Gull]

POPULUS
LABOUR 34%
CONS 31%
UKIP 16%
LIBS 8%

IPSOS MORI
LABOUR 34%
CONS 33%
UKIP 13%
LIBS 8%

TNS-BMRB
LABOUR 33%
CONS 30%
UKIP 19%
LIBS 8%

Always so balanced with your poll selections Titanic!!

Today the BBC poll of polls has it 33% each. This is the one I go with to avoid picking polls. Most will use some statistic variance, probably 95%, and have a margin of error of c3% either way. So any individual poll is not necessary accurate and actually is likely to be inaccurate, it's just about how inaccurate it is. Also how questions are framed etc impact also. So a poll of polls smooths this out a bit. Anyway it's super tight. Has an election ever been more interesting?

 

[Hampster Gull]

Part info is in previous post, also online only get responders who are active online biased towards younger which we know as every age group the younger you go the higher the red %ages.
On this thread there are more reds, they get involved more whereas 'older' Tories don't as much
Untested in as much as they have not had a General Election to 'Test, Learn,Enhance' their own levels of accuracy & its subsequent reporting. They have yet to have their first shag but are telling everyone how to do it....
Statistically the cheap & easy to set up online only polls should both come with a different Margin of Error warning and be given less credibility but interestingly neither seem to be case!

The bbc have a great page on how polls work and the reasons they could come up with different results. Search bbc how the poll tracker works

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

That Ashcroft chap has been quiet for a while now. I wonder, has he finally run out of the mind-bending drugs which clearly fuel his analysis?

 

[spring hall convert]

I really love the utter arrogance of this Tory Party. They are still maintaining that yesterday's attack on Milliband was justified, when it clearly hasn't played well, it's totally backfired on a subject where the Tories really could have gained some traction around Trident.

Tosspots.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

"Bad news for recovery as Britain’s trade deficit widens in February
George Osborne could be facing the prospect of cooling growth when the country heads to the polls next month after Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened sharply in February."

I thought the Tories were good with the economy? A huge increase in the debt, absolutely shocking UK productivity and now this, all on the back of zero hours and a minimum wage work force. Clowns.

 

[Titanic]

<forget it>

 

[Hampster Gull]

"Bad news for recovery as Britain’s trade deficit widens in February
George Osborne could be facing the prospect of cooling growth when the country heads to the polls next month after Britain’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened sharply in February."

I thought the Tories were good with the economy? A huge increase in the debt, absolutely shocking UK productivity and now this, all on the back of zero hours and a minimum wage work force. Clowns.

Nice try. We have the best growth rate in the G7. The economy is turning around from the mess that Labour left it in (remember he note saying there was no money left - funny in a public house but not in public office).

The deficit bubbles around of course, taking a data set or two is a bit like taking two polls which have labour in the lead and assuming that is it.

Productivity is a real issue, as it was under Labour.

Very crude to say that the best growth in the G7 is on the back of zero hour labour and minimum wage. The former work for many individuals (agreed not all) and some employers, eg some labour MPs and councils. Is the minimum wage now a bad thing? It's a bit like Labour saying removing non Dom status would hurt us and then proposing to abolish it a few months later to win a few votes. Shameless.

But hey, more central planning from the elite and those in the club, yet more inefficient spending of other people's money, it clearly makes sense to some.

 

[Triggaaar]

The housing crisis - although there are half arsed utterings about building more homes, or helping first time buyers a tiny bit more - none of them are offering any real solutions for the lost generation who will never own their own homes.

What solution do you suggest?

our planet is relentlessly being destroyed

Fear not, our planet will be here long after the humans are all dead.

Democracy - they're all too busy squabbling and mud-slinging with personal insults to address the point that this democratic system no longer works for the people and is in desperate need of modernisation.

You've yet to come up with an alternative, and it makes no sense for the polical parties to come up with an alternative that would see them lose their jobs.

 

[sten_super]

But hey, more central planning from the elite and those in the club, yet more inefficient spending of other people's money, it clearly makes sense to some.

The problem is, if you boil down any political party to this kind of trite soundbite, you can make them sound however you want.

The Tories, cutting benefits and taxes, putting the burden of the deficit on the backs of the poor.
The Tories, making sure Britain is "open for business".

Both have some decent ideas and some truly terrible ones. To be honest, if I thought that either party was genuinely acting out of some kind of genuine belief in "a better way" I'd be much more inclined to vote for them. As it is they are clearly in it for self-promotion and making friends in the private sector. That's why there are such massive moral holes in their actions.

 

[spring hall convert]

Drug laws - if Labour were to announce that they were to legalise cannabis, they would win the general election - no brainer. Even I'd vote for them then.

The housing crisis - although there are half arsed utterings about building more homes, or helping first time buyers a tiny bit more - none of them are offering any real solutions for the lost generation who will never own their own homes.

The environment - possibly the most important issue of all, largely being ignored, as Brighton is once again covered in smog and our planet is relentlessly being destroyed

Democracy - they're all too busy squabbling and mud-slinging with personal insults to address the point that this democratic system no longer works for the people and is in desperate need of modernisation.

Can we add energy security to this?