General Election 2015

[Herr Tubthumper]

Did you forget to post the Populus poll from yesterday ? CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%, GRN 5%

There's nothing in this whole wide world that cheers me up as much as seeing that seagullsovergrimsby has made a post to this thread.

I open the thread up with much anticipation. He rarely lets me down.

 

[Surf's Up]

He's better looking than me.

Fair enough, but in all other aspects identical I assume!!!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Fair enough, but in all other aspects identical I assume!!!

No comment

 

[Machiavelli]

Thought I better get in and post these before [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] does:
It’s no change with Survation for Mail on Sunday

CON 30%+1
LAB 34%+1
LD 10%=
UKIP 17%-2
SNP 4%=
GRE 3%+1

Mike Smithson [MENTION=20472]msmith[/MENTION]sonPB
Follow
LAB 2% ahead in latest YouGov poll for S Times

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Simon Danczuk MP (Labour) has succinctly described his boss Edward as a 'F***ing knob'

 

[Titanic]

Latest YouGov poll (22 - 23 Mar):

LAB 34% (-1)
CON 34% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-2)
LDEM 8% (-)
GRN 6% (+1)

 

[Titanic]

Ashcroft National Poll, 20-22 March:

CON 33%,
LAB 33%,
LDEM 8%,
UKIP 12%,
GRN 5%.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It doesn't look like the Budget has made any difference. If the announcement to abolish tax returns was hastily shoehorned in to win votes then it hasn't worked and could actually be a big stick that Labour could use against them in future.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Ashcroft National Poll, 20-22 March:

CON 33%,
LAB 33%,
LDEM 8%,
UKIP 12%,
GRN 5%.

Curtains for Dave.

 

[wellquickwoody]

For some reason I seem to recall that opinion polls historically have regularly over estimated the size of the Labour vote in advance of the general election. Wishful thinking on my part, or is there any evidence of this?

 

[beorhthelm]

It doesn't look like the Budget has made any difference. If the announcement to abolish tax returns was hastily shoehorned in to win votes then it hasn't worked and could actually be a big stick that Labour could use against them in future.

why would tax returns be a particularly political issue?

 

[Greyrun]

For some reason I seem to recall that opinion polls historically have regularly over estimated the size of the Labour vote in advance of the general election. Wishful thinking on my part, or is there any evidence of this?

Yes, they looked at last year's local and European elections and the 5 by elections and the Tory vote was under estimated by 2.2% and the Labour vote over estimated by 2%.

 

[Camicus]

Believe it or not it's because don't know are discounted and people are embarrassed to say that they vote tory.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

For some reason I seem to recall that opinion polls historically have regularly over estimated the size of the Labour vote in advance of the general election. Wishful thinking on my part, or is there any evidence of this?

Pollsters factor in historic data, it's part of the job. Ashcroft certainly does as he's explained his methods.

 

[Machiavelli]

For some reason I seem to recall that opinion polls historically have regularly over estimated the size of the Labour vote in advance of the general election. Wishful thinking on my part, or is there any evidence of this?

1992 was the last time this happened. There is the notion of 'silent Tories' -- those that think Tory, espouse Tory policies, yet stubbornly refuse to say that they are a Tory, or will vote for them -- but that has been factored out of the polls.
Since 1992, the pollsters have been remarkably accurate. At the last election the exit poll got the number of seats of the three leading parties spot on.

 

[Pavilionaire]

why would tax returns be a particularly political issue?

If the Chancellor perceived that the electorate hated completing Tax Returns then he may feel announcing their abolition just 7 weeks before an election might be a popular measure.

Given that the accounting, taxation and financial advice sectors had no idea this was coming, and given HMRC are clearly not ready for such a sweeping change to the tax reporting system, then why else did he announce it? I'm genuinely baffled, I think Osborne has simply misread the situation.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Curtains for Dave.

I think he has to leave them behind when he vacates number 10

 

[Titanic]

Yougov 'megapoll 8k' 18-23 March:

CON 34%,
LAB 33%,
UKIP 14%,
LDEM 8%,
GRN 5%.

 

[Dave the OAP]

I am no fan of cameron, but he made milliband look a right **** on PMQs this lunchtime.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

I am no fan of cameron, but he made milliband look a right **** on PMQs this lunchtime.

Well said Big D, I'm guessing you mean knob or Bean?