General Election 2015

[beorhthelm]

Interesting so it'll be a bun fight between Labour forming a coalition with the SNP and the Tories and Lib Dems trying to form one if those figures are correct.

the thing is, on the same page we have a link to Guardian's analysis that has Labour seat allocations that aren't even in the ranges. the data and methods of analysis are being thrown out badly. it will probably require one of the two larger parties to ally with both SNP and Liberals to have a majority. i dont see that holding together, frankly i dont see them being able to negotiate something in the first place.

so the conclusion is a minority government with alot of powers getting devolved to Scotland in exchange for votes on each issue. wish they'd voted for independence now, they'll be that in all but name at the end of the next parliament.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Wow .... just watched PMQs. I'm no fan of Milliband but that was an utterly pathetic performance from Cameron. All he could should about was the SNP, he can't count ( four reasons suggested but only three named ) and he claimed he was willing to debate with Milliband "any place, anywhere, anytime" unless of course it's after 30th March and not on TV. UKIP it is then.

 

[Ernest]

Labour up 4% in the latest Yougov poll, how DESPICABLE

 

[Eeyore]

I still think the Conservatives, in a mirror of 1992, will win the election. If they get to the final six weeks with a lead it may increase. They may need help to form a government though. Will the Liberal Democrats join in again ?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...e-years-in-latest-poll-of-polls-10101519.html

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, with topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 13%(+4), GRN 6%(-1).

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Poor old Miliband, seems to have all the luck of Neil Kinnock as a leader. This from the BBC website...

On Tuesday evening - in an apparent reference to an interview Ed Miliband's wife Justine had given to the BBC - Clarkson tweeted: "Sorry Ed. It seems I knocked your 'I'm a human' piece down the news agenda."

Jeremy Clarkson is a fervent Tory who was considering standing against Miliband in Doncaster North as an independent. Clarkson's very own Member of Parliament is Dodgy Dave , say no more.

 

[Titanic]

Latest YouGov poll (11 - 12 Mar):
CON - 33% (-1)
LAB - 32% (-3)
UKIP - 16% (+2)
LDEM - 7% (-)
GRN - 6% (+1)

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Labour up 4% in the latest Yougov poll, how DESPICABLE

I hope we're given due respect when Cameron is kicked out of number 10. We've been calling this for ages now.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Latest YouGov poll (11 - 12 Mar):
CON - 33% (-1)
LAB - 32% (-3)
UKIP - 16% (+2)
LDEM - 7% (-)
GRN - 6% (+1)

Why don't the SNP figure in these polls?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Here's the latest Ashcroft poll

CON - 112% (-1)
LAB - -4% (-3)
UKIP - 16% (+2)
LDEM - 7% (-)
GRN - 6% (+1)

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I hope we're given due respect when Cameron is kicked out of number 10. We've been calling this for ages now.

I'm not sure - too close to call IMO - unlike when the thread was started when Labour had a seven point lead. You would have thought that with 'the cost of living crisis' they would have at least maintained that lead? I still think it will come down to how many Tories vote UKIP in marginals. Although Labour will also lose support to UKIP, it won't be so much.

I still think we're in for a hung parliament, with another Tory /Lib Dem coalition being a possibility - which hasn't been so bad - the Lib Dems have certainly reigned in the Tories, and the economy is clearly picking up.

A lot will depend on what Osborne gives away in the budget - let's remember most people will vote for whoever they think will make them better off.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I'm not sure - too close to call IMO - unlike when the thread was started when Labour had a seven point lead. You would have thought that with 'the cost of living crisis' they would have at least maintained that lead? I still think it will come down to how many Tories vote UKIP in marginals. Although Labour will also lose support to UKIP, it won't be so much.

I still think we're in for a hung parliament, with another Tory /Lib Dem coalition being a possibility - which hasn't been so bad - the Lib Dems have certainly reigned in the Tories, and the economy is clearly picking up.

A lot will depend on what Osborne gives away in the budget - let's remember most people will vote for whoever they think will make them better off.

I'm certain it will hung.

 

[London Irish]

Latest poll is Labour by 3% - that's a non-SNP parliamentary majority

Populus VI: Lab 32 (-1), Con 29 (-3), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 18 (+3), Greens 6 (-), Others 7 (+1).

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Anyone else see the loathsome Sarah Vine (aka Mrs Gove) getting a kicking from Michael Portillo - of all people - on This Week for her negative piece on Mrs Miliband in the Daily Mail?

It seems even other Tories are getting fed up with the relentless Miliband-bashing. Although you have to wonder what anyone expected from a Mail journo writing about someone named Miliband ... .

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Latest poll is Labour by 3% - that's a non-SNP parliamentary majority

Populus VI: Lab 32 (-1), Con 29 (-3), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 18 (+3), Greens 6 (-), Others 7 (+1).

I guess this rubbish poll us Populus, please refrain from reprinting their inaccurate lies (see previous posts)

 

[beorhthelm]

Why don't the SNP figure in these polls?

probably because they are national polls, and nationally SNP doesnt/cant poll above ~4% so will be lumped into "other". if they are rUK polls, not counting any polling in Scotland, they are massively over-reporting the likely Labour support.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I guess this rubbish poll us Populus, please refrain from reprinting their inaccurate lies (see previous posts)

You have to live with the rough and smooth of opinion polls instead of highlighting those which suit your agenda

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

probably because they are national polls, and nationally SNP doesnt/cant poll above ~4% so will be lumped into "other". if they are rUK polls, not counting any polling in Scotland, they are massively over-reporting the likely Labour support.

Er, what?

 

[Dandyman]

If the polls from 12 February to 12 March are taken into account Labour would be the largest party but around 27 seats short of an absolute majority:

Labour 299 Tories 265 LibDem 17 SNP 46 Greens 1 UKIP 1 PC 3 NI parties 18