General Election 2015

[Greyrun]

This particular record is mentioned every time they announce the unemployment figures. The population of this country is currently the highest it's ever been, so of course the number of people in work will be a record. The unemployment rate - 5.7% - isn't anywhere near a record. In fact, it's about level with the average during the Blair-Brown years.

It does not follow that jobs increase in line with population growth, therefore the government deserves praise for record employment, if it was the reverse they would be criticised.

 

[yxee]

To complete the destruction of Labour's "cost of living crisis" election platform,... "wage growth outpaced inflation at the fastest rate in almost five years."

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

To complete the destruction of Labour's "cost of living crisis" election platform,... "wage growth outpaced inflation at the fastest rate in almost five years."

With inflation at 0.3% , a 1% pay rise sounds fantastic

 

[Machiavelli]

Latest TNS poll has Lab with a 7% lead - CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%

Does this offset the earlier poll from ICM which showed the Tories with a 4% lead

Congratulations. You managed to get in ahead of [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] on that one. We'd have to wonder why that is the case, wouldn't we?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Congratulations. You managed to get in ahead of [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] on that one. We'd have to wonder why that is the case, wouldn't we?

The latest TNS and ICM polls are out of kilter with the flow of the other polls over the last fortnight which put LAB and CON roughly level.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Personally I think this is the more telling one and it shows the trending. The fall of Labour and the rise of UKIP to me show this is going to be a close run one.

 

[Camicus]

Lol rise of UKIP. More statistical electoral and political illiteracy.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Lol rise of UKIP. More statistical electoral and political illiteracy.

Errr ..... I didn't draw the graph ! It's the combination of all the main polls ( a Poll of Polls ). You might not like it but UKIP have increased their polling share - it's a fact. As have the Greens. The cliff face that is the Lib Dems is rather telling as well.

 

[Camicus]

Errr ..... I didn't draw the graph ! It's the combination of all the main polls ( a Poll of Polls ). You might not like it but UKIP have increased their polling share - it's a fact. As have the Greens. The cliff face that is the Lib Dems is rather telling as well.

Erm once more no its not a fact! you can see by your own graph you can see that Ukip support is down.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Erm once more no its not a fact! you can see by your own graph you can see that Ukip support is down.

You're somewhat letting your hatred get in the way of statistics.

So just for your simple mind ( and the figures are rough given the graph doesn't have exact axis ). First figure is the parties start %, the second their current % and the final their change from be beginning of their polling in the graph :

Tory - 35%, 32%, -3%
Labour - 28%, 33%, +5%
Lib Dem - 29%, 7%, -22%
UKIP - 8%, 15%, +7%
Green - 2%, 7%, +5%

 

[Camicus]

You're somewhat letting your hatred get in the way of statistics.

So just for your simple mind ( and the figures are rough given the graph doesn't have exact axis ). First figure is the parties start %, the second their current % and the final their change from be beginning of their polling in the graph :

Tory - 35%, 32%, -3%
Labour - 28%, 33%, +5%
Lib Dem - 29%, 7%, -22%
UKIP - 8%, 15%, +7%
Green - 2%, 7%, +5%

I did my degree in comp sci with statistics and astrophysics so Im sure my simple mind can grasp it. Your data set is incomplete and you are cherry picking your data points. I don't "hate" anyone I leave that to kippers. Ukip are polling down on their high. You would have to poll at 34% to gain any seats. Still don't let the mathematics get in the way

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I did my degree in comp sci with statistics and astrophysics so Im sure my simple mind can grasp it. Your data set is incomplete and you are cherry picking your data points. I don't "hate" anyone I leave that to kippers. Ukip are polling down on their high. You would have to poll at 34% to gain any seats. Still don't let the mathematics get in the way

Well I'm somewhat surprised you passed then. How am I 'cherry picking' my data points ? That graph is the normalisation of all the main polls - about a dozen of them. UKIP are indeed polling down on their high - so are the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems - so I'm really not sure what your point is ?

As for "You would have to poll at 34% to gain any seats" - really ?

How did Labour gain 258 seats on only 29% of the vote ?
How did the Lib Dems gain 58 seats on only 23% of the vote ?
How did the Greens gain 1 seat on only 0.9% of the vote ?

I could also highlight the vote for the SNP, Sinn Fein, DUP or Plaid Cymru - all of whom got seats with far far less than 34% of the vote.

Of course, you could be talking about having to gain 34% to actually get A seat ? That would show you up as a very poor statistician though. As if you were any good you'd have detailed your data set given you were commenting on a post that quite clearly was about NATIONAL statistics.

 

[Camicus]

Yes really. still we shall see in may when Ukip get no MPs. Im somewhat surprised you can walk and breath at the same time but hey we all have our crosses to bare

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Yes really. still we shall see in may when Ukip get no MPs. Im somewhat surprised you can walk and breath at the same time but hey we all have our crosses to bare

So no real response to the actual stats then ? Just another petty swipe ? So come on then, you're so f**king clever with your degree - explain the graph ? Explain how the Tories, the Greens and UKIP have increased the share of the polled vote ? Or did you not pay attention in those statistics lessons ?

 

[Buzzer]

Yes really. still we shall see in may when Ukip get no MPs. Im somewhat surprised you can walk and breath at the same time but hey we all have our crosses to bare

Far be it for me to call the kettle black but if you're going to go down the route of intellectual willy-waving you might want to make extra sure you understand the difference between bare and bear and breath and breathe.

 

[beorhthelm]

I did my degree in comp sci with statistics and astrophysics so Im sure my simple mind can grasp it. Your data set is incomplete and you are cherry picking your data points. I don't "hate" anyone I leave that to kippers. Ukip are polling down on their high. You would have to poll at 34% to gain any seats. Still don't let the mathematics get in the way

erm... giving a fine reference model of the practice.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I did my degree in comp sci with statistics and astrophysics

Strange that here appears to be no such degree on the UK don't you think ?

 

[Camicus]

Strange that here appears to be no such degree on the UK don't you think ?

A couple of points 1) Tapatalk via phone so autocorrect. 2) Prehaps you should look at the OU and ELECTIVE modules but hey about up to your normal research levels.

 

[Buzzer]

It auto-corrected bear to bare and breathe to breath but didn't auto-capitalise a word starting a new sentence and it didn't auto-correct "Im" as "I'm"?

 

[Camicus]

Whatevs I don't have to prove anything to you or anyone else. However it fits the pattern. You can't argue the point so you call my integrate into question. TBF I don't actually give a feck one way or the other what the right wing nutjobs here think.