General Election 2015

[Buzzer]

Ladbrokes political betting has the Tories as favourite to win most seats for the first time since 2012.

http://politicalbookie.com/2015/01/.../?hootPostID=ae8f3370bf9b70161da92fc30a14c9d6

 

[Gwylan]

but i rather expect we'd be seeing alot of Baroness Sturgeon.

I would be absolutely staggered if she accepted a peerage: it would go against everything the SNP stands for.It would completely reverse all the gains the party has made in the past decade or so

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

BE GREEN VOTE GREEN. If that helps...

In the key Lab-Con marginals up and down the country voting GREEN means ending up with BLUE in number 10.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I would be absolutely staggered if she accepted a peerage: it would go against everything the SNP stands for.It would completely reverse all the gains the party has made in the past decade or so

Baroness of Alba does have a nice ring to it though

 

[DTES]

The TV debates are now set to feature SEVEN parties, with the Greens, SNP & Plaid Cymru all being invited: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jan/22/bbc-and-itv-set-to-expand-party-leader-debates-to-include-greens-snp-and-plaid-cymru

We're still behind Sweden though - they had eight in theirs...

 

[Gwylan]

In the key Lab-Con marginals up and down the country voting GREEN means ending up with BLUE in number 10.

Unless lots of the Tory voters opt for UKIP.

Brighton Kemptown could be very interesting

 

[Dandyman]

"While hardly a senior figure inside the Labour party, his defection may rattle some who fear working class voters could abandon Ed Miliband’s party in May



So far, UKIP has two defected MPs, both from the Tories. There is nothing to suggest they will make any inroads into traditional Labour vote. Cunning Fergus makes a compelling case as to why it should, but I guess most working class labour voters look at the UKIP leader, his pompous city-boy mannerisms and think "what a complete nob". Along with that, you can probably discount the majority of any Labour-supporting 2nd or 3rd generation immigrants from switching to UKIP too.

This. UKIP will get a small former Labour vote but the majority of it's support will be Monday Club Tories and other right-wingers.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

The TV debates are now set to feature SEVEN parties, with the Greens, SNP & Plaid Cymru all being invited: http://www.theguardian.com/media/20...debates-to-include-greens-snp-and-plaid-cymru

We're still behind Sweden though - they had eight in theirs...

Utterly daft. Now Wales and Scotland are so devolved, if they want a TV debate, then it they should have one on their local channels with the parties in their region. A majority of us can't even vote for the SNP or Plaid Cymru.

 

[Soulman]

Any particular reason why Nicola Sturgeon wouldn't be Deputy PM in a Lab-SNP coalition ?

Scotland’s First Minister said SNP MPs elected in May would back Labour’s bid to repeal the Government’s NHS reforms, even though Holyrood is in complete control of the health service north of the border.
It has to be said that the NHS needs an overhaul but why should the Scots have a say on the English NHS.

 

[cunning fergus]

Fergus, the more I read your posts, the more I think I understand where you are coming from. Would I be right to say that if there were a party with a broadly socialist agenda, that advocated a withdrawal from the EU, they would likely have your support.

Have you any idea why the common thought process seems to be that being anti-EU (in its current form) isn't commensurate with being "left-wing?"

To be honest given my opposition to the EU and what it stands for I would vote for anyone who proposes for us to leave it.

My preference would be for a more progressive party to do this however there is a paucity of choice at the moment. Bob Crow was of course associated with No2EU a leftist and trade union supported party that wanted to exit the EU, proof that the issue spans the political spectrum, however they are small beer currently.

It's a mystery to me, in old money it was the Labour Party that was anti EU and the Tories pro EU. I think Thatcher changed that dynamic as the EU (or EEC) was the one "lever" that Labour could influence in opposition with their more prevalent socialist European counterparts to undermine Thatcherism in the UK.

Since the 90s the EU has morphed essentially into a new state and this has lead to sovereignty issues that pull on the national minded Tories more than the internationalist minded socialists. Generally loss of sovereignty is too big a cost to most traditional minded Tories.

In theory this makes sense, however in practice, especially now the social policy victories won by socialists in recent years are being swept away in Europe by new socialist politicians in thrall to big business (sound familiar). In the EU countries hardest hit employers have got free rein to employ on minimal terms compared to years ago, just like the zero hours contracts we have here. Unions are retreating across the continent too so it is the capitalists that hold the balance of power.

I am astounded with the support that the EU has with supposedly socialist minded people in the EU; the devastation of the British working class is clear as a consequence of free movement of Labour within the EU is undeniable, and it's unforgivable that this was done by Labour.

Today we have the launch of QE a policy that will really only benefit the rich and big business, the ECB has indicated they will withhold it from Greece if Syzria get in............that tells us all we need to know about the a EU and their contempt for democracy.

Wankers.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Utterly daft. Now Wales and Scotland are so devolved, if they want a TV debate, then it they should have one on their local channels with the parties in their region. A majority of us can't even vote for the SNP or Plaid Cymru.

Well, if UKIP and the Greens are major parties then so are others like Plaid Cymru. Also, can everyone in the UK vote for a UKIP or Green candidate?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Well, if UKIP and the Greens are major parties then so are others like Plaid Cymru. Also, can everyone in the UK vote for a UKIP or Green?

Both are UK parties while the SNP and Plaid Cymru are only national parties.

 

[stripeyshark]

In the key Lab-Con marginals up and down the country voting GREEN means ending up with BLUE in number 10.

Unless you're a conservative supporter who then votes green...

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Both are UK parties while the SNP and Plaid Cymru are only national parties.

True, but if you're advocating they stick to regional tv then I'd advocate UKIP stick to the back rooms of pubs.

 

[Ali_rrr]

The TV debates are now set to feature SEVEN parties, with the Greens, SNP & Plaid Cymru all being invited: http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jan/22/bbc-and-itv-set-to-expand-party-leader-debates-to-include-greens-snp-and-plaid-cymru

We're still behind Sweden though - they had eight in theirs...

Swedish politics is not great at the moment. The government can't get anything through and the rise of the Swedish Democrats is very worrying. So maybe in this case, they aren't ahead?

 

[jakarta]

True, but if you're advocating they stick to regional tv then I'd advocate UKIP stick to the back rooms of pubs.

Oh my aching sides, you really are becoming one of the most tedious posters on NSC, which takes some doing.

 

[spring hall convert]

To be honest given my opposition to the EU and what it stands for I would vote for anyone who proposes for us to leave it.

My preference would be for a more progressive party to do this however there is a paucity of choice at the moment. Bob Crow was of course associated with No2EU a leftist and trade union supported party that wanted to exit the EU, proof that the issue spans the political spectrum, however they are small beer currently.

It's a mystery to me, in old money it was the Labour Party that was anti EU and the Tories pro EU. I think Thatcher changed that dynamic as the EU (or EEC) was the one "lever" that Labour could influence in opposition with their more prevalent socialist European counterparts to undermine Thatcherism in the UK.

Since the 90s the EU has morphed essentially into a new state and this has lead to sovereignty issues that pull on the national minded Tories more than the internationalist minded socialists. Generally loss of sovereignty is too big a cost to most traditional minded Tories.

In theory this makes sense, however in practice, especially now the social policy victories won by socialists in recent years are being swept away in Europe by new socialist politicians in thrall to big business (sound familiar). In the EU countries hardest hit employers have got free rein to employ on minimal terms compared to years ago, just like the zero hours contracts we have here. Unions are retreating across the continent too so it is the capitalists that hold the balance of power.

I am astounded with the support that the EU has with supposedly socialist minded people in the EU; the devastation of the British working class is clear as a consequence of free movement of Labour within the EU is undeniable, and it's unforgivable that this was done by Labour.

Today we have the launch of QE a policy that will really only benefit the rich and big business, the ECB has indicated they will withhold it from Greece if Syzria get in............that tells us all we need to know about the a EU and their contempt for democracy.

Wankers.

Thanks for the analysis.

Slightly off that trail, do you see a time when the Unions stop donating to the Labour Party? Do you think the Unions could do more to shape a Labour Party more the way they want to see it?

I don't really see what they're getting for that money. Ed Milliband was supposed to be more pro-union but I don't see it. I'll wait for the manifesto but he looks like a "socialist politician in thrall to big business" as you put it.

Last question, Labour's dereliction of duty regarding the traditional working class in the country as you see it, do you think it was intentional or the result of incompetent stewardship?

 

[Stato]

This is a response to Fergus's post from some pages back. I have not quoted his post because mine is already far too long winded. Please feel free to move on should any of you have no interest in the views of a complete stranger:

I think it was Ronald Reagan who said ‘If you’re explaining, you’re losing.’ I’ve been a believer in socialism since I was a teenager and have lived with capitalism my whole life, so, as a perennial loser, I’ll explain. I score in the bottom left hand corner of the http://www.politicalcompass.org/index and so, although I’d argue for socialism, I’m too liberal to force any change on anyone. Therefore I have to look to the long game and hope for the best.

I don’t see any distinction between the ‘British’ working class and the rest of the world’s working class. They have the same interests, but, because they are not organised internationally, they are continuously played off against each other by International capital and populist politicians.

I don’t believe that the Labour Party is completely at fault for abandoning the working classes. The working classes abandoned it first, voting for Thatcher, choosing owning council houses over union solidarity. It is a mistake to mythologise the working class. In my experience growing up in it, the levels of racism, selfishness and bigotry are no less than in any other class. The too many ‘immigrants’ dog whistle has always had a receptive audience among the working man and is currently a tactic of a shape shifting European far right. I believe that Gordon Brown was right about Gillian Duffy. She was being bigoted. She was blaming the changes in the country on East European immigrants, claiming that they were given more rights than the British. This is not true and she provided no evidence other than her own gut feeling. I am free to say this as I am not seeking her or anyone else's vote.

I am also free to say that I don’t think that more open immigration has been a disaster for Britain’s Working Classes. Large numbers of people were not saying this before the recession. It is the recession that caused the problems, but, as has happened repeatedly throughout European history, when times get tough, the immigrants get the blame. There is now a widely held perception that immigration is a problem and Yvette Cooper, as she is seeking election, does not argue against this because, if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

Given that I am a socialist under capitalism, but would not advocate violent revolution, my best hope is to try to persuade others into more progressive versions of capitalism. I have to argue in capitalist terms. Most people in this country would think that an improved GDP is a good thing, hence my pointing out that immigration has had a positive effect on this figure.

As far as the EU is concerned, I am drawn towards it because it gives the chance for government to regulate business on a more international scale. However, it has massive problems with corruption and waste and needs major reform. It is, at heart, a trade organisation of capitalist countries and will support market ideologies in the same way as our national governments will. I do believe that history has shown humanity becoming very slowly more socially liberal and that a move towards a more egalitarian division of resources is eventually inevitable. As this happens, multi-national legislation will help to minimise exploitation. Whatever their faults, without organisations like the EU there is only an unregulated international market and we have seen where survival of the fittest leaves most of us.

I know that you do not agree on the EU, but I hope this answers your questions, and goes some way to explaining my reaction to your labelling me as a tory. I am quite happy to have my views challenged, but, as is evident in the editorial voice of The Guardian, the last comfort left to us perennial losers is the sense of moral superiority and complacent smugness we get from believing that we are the nice ones.

 

[cunning fergus]

This is a response to Fergus's post from some pages back. I have not quoted his post because mine is already far too long winded. Please feel free to move on should any of you have no interest in the views of a complete stranger:

I think it was Ronald Reagan who said ‘If you’re explaining, you’re losing.’ I’ve been a believer in socialism since I was a teenager and have lived with capitalism my whole life, so, as a perennial loser, I’ll explain. I score in the bottom left hand corner of the http://www.politicalcompass.org/index and so, although I’d argue for socialism, I’m too liberal to force any change on anyone. Therefore I have to look to the long game and hope for the best.

I don’t see any distinction between the ‘British’ working class and the rest of the world’s working class. They have the same interests, but, because they are not organised internationally, they are continuously played off against each other by International capital and populist politicians.

I don’t believe that the Labour Party is completely at fault for abandoning the working classes. The working classes abandoned it first, voting for Thatcher, choosing owning council houses over union solidarity. It is a mistake to mythologise the working class. In my experience growing up in it, the levels of racism, selfishness and bigotry are no less than in any other class. The too many ‘immigrants’ dog whistle has always had a receptive audience among the working man and is currently a tactic of a shape shifting European far right. I believe that Gordon Brown was right about Gillian Duffy. She was being bigoted. She was blaming the changes in the country on East European immigrants, claiming that they were given more rights than the British. This is not true and she provided no evidence other than her own gut feeling. I am free to say this as I am not seeking her or anyone else's vote.

I am also free to say that I don’t think that more open immigration has been a disaster for Britain’s Working Classes. Large numbers of people were not saying this before the recession. It is the recession that caused the problems, but, as has happened repeatedly throughout European history, when times get tough, the immigrants get the blame. There is now a widely held perception that immigration is a problem and Yvette Cooper, as she is seeking election, does not argue against this because, if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

Given that I am a socialist under capitalism, but would not advocate violent revolution, my best hope is to try to persuade others into more progressive versions of capitalism. I have to argue in capitalist terms. Most people in this country would think that an improved GDP is a good thing, hence my pointing out that immigration has had a positive effect on this figure.

As far as the EU is concerned, I am drawn towards it because it gives the chance for government to regulate business on a more international scale. However, it has massive problems with corruption and waste and needs major reform. It is, at heart, a trade organisation of capitalist countries and will support market ideologies in the same way as our national governments will. I do believe that history has shown humanity becoming very slowly more socially liberal and that a move towards a more egalitarian division of resources is eventually inevitable. As this happens, multi-national legislation will help to minimise exploitation. Whatever their faults, without organisations like the EU there is only an unregulated international market and we have seen where survival of the fittest leaves most of us.

I know that you do not agree on the EU, but I hope this answers your questions, and goes some way to explaining my reaction to your labelling me as a tory. I am quite happy to have my views challenged, but, as is evident in the editorial voice of The Guardian, the last comfort left to us perennial losers is the sense of moral superiority and complacent smugness we get from believing that we are the nice ones.

So, there we have it; you make no distinction between the rights of the British working class to anyone else from the four corners of the world who arrives here.

Despite all the undeniable evidence that Labour's policy of not controlling the labour market (whilst in power) has been disastrous for the working class in particular, you think they deserve it because they voted in Thatcher and are broadly racist. I don't care what the political compass says, you comments point to misty eyed Marxism combined with free market capitalism and bigotry against the British working class.........sorry to break it to you but you are far from being one of the "nice ones".

My outlook on how to help the poor and powerless is formed around an episode in British history which provides an essential lesson for Govts today if they want to help the poor and powerless. After the plague in the 1300s the workforce was reduced by 30% and the previously powerless, largely unpaid workers were empowered by this change in the labour market to such an extent that feudalism in Britain ceased almost overnight. This loss of power compelled the landowners to lobby the King to introduce a MAXIMUM wage (statute of Labourers act 1380). It didn't work, albeit this change in the relationship between the workers and their employers set in chain events that would ultimately lead to the peasants revolt.

If anyone wants to help the British working class (or any other working class) then they need to control the labour market.......anyone who doesn't want to do that is either a free market Tory or a smug Marxist ****. I will make no apologies for what I am, I was bought up in Moulsecoomb the son of a roof tiler who bought his house........evidently the wrong kind of socialist.

As for Duffygate, I will let you review these links at you leisure (including the transcript). You will recall Brown apologised for his comments, it says a lot about you that you don't think he should have. Let's face it, it's not the first thing you have got wrong on this thread.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/29/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-bigot

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ele...-versus-Gillian-Duffy-transcript-in-full.html

Not enough time for the EU, however for genuine socialists it's a busted flush, it's only big business capitalists who are holding it together..........listen and read the reports about the ECBs QE programme, the banks and big business are made up. You need to work out which side you are on.

You are evidently not down in the bottom left hand corner on everything.........Margaret.

 

[Stato]

So, there we have it; you make no distinction between the rights of the British working class to anyone else from the four corners of the world who arrives here.

Despite all the undeniable evidence that Labour's policy of not controlling the labour market (whilst in power) has been disastrous for the working class in particular, you think they deserve it because they voted in Thatcher and are broadly racist. I don't care what the political compass says, you comments point to misty eyed Marxism combined with free market capitalism and bigotry against the British working class.........sorry to break it to you but you are far from being one of the "nice ones".

My outlook on how to help the poor and powerless is formed around an episode in British history which provides an essential lesson for Govts today if they want to help the poor and powerless. After the plague in the 1300s the workforce was reduced by 30% and the previously powerless, largely unpaid workers were empowered by this change in the labour market to such an extent that feudalism in Britain ceased almost overnight. This loss of power compelled the landowners to lobby the King to introduce a MAXIMUM wage (statute of Labourers act 1380). It didn't work, albeit this change in the relationship between the workers and their employers set in chain events that would ultimately lead to the peasants revolt.

If anyone wants to help the British working class (or any other working class) then they need to control the labour market.......anyone who doesn't want to do that is either a free market Tory or a smug Marxist ****. I will make no apologies for what I am, I was bought up in Moulsecoomb the son of a roof tiler who bought his house........evidently the wrong kind of socialist.

As for Duffygate, I will let you review these links at you leisure (including the transcript). You will recall Brown apologised for his comments, it says a lot about you that you don't think he should have. Let's face it, it's not the first thing you have got wrong on this thread.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/apr/29/gordon-brown-gillian-duffy-bigot

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ele...-versus-Gillian-Duffy-transcript-in-full.html

Not enough time for the EU, however for genuine socialists it's a busted flush, it's only big business capitalists who are holding it together..........listen and read the reports about the ECBs QE programme, the banks and big business are made up. You need to work out which side you are on.

You are evidently not down in the bottom left hand corner on everything.........Margaret.

The 'undeniable evidence' is something you mention, but have not provided.

I have read the transcript previously. Duffy raised no points of fact, just prejudice. Brown apologised because, in politics, nobody seeking election can be seen as criticising a member of the electorate even when they deserve it. However she is one person, not the entire working class.

I have said nowhere that the British working class need punishment, just that a lot of them wouldn't vote for Labour until it abandoned socialism.

It is not possible to control the labour market on a national basis. The failure of Stalinism proved this.

Its the violent reaction and personal insults that made me wonder about the direction you are coming from in the first place. It is possible to address points without abusing the person making the point.