General Election 2015

[sten_super]

Labour would never willingly see an independent Scotland as it would be a death knell to majority Labour government

I've seen this said a few times, and I don't buy it. Sure, without Scotland politics would swing (further) to the right in this country, but the balance between the parties would be re-asserted within a few years around the 'new' middle ground I'm sure.

 

[larus]

What does "coalition of losers" even mean? I'll tell you - it means that more anti-Tory seats than pro-Tory seats have been elected to power. Sorry if this doesn't quite fit with your agenda.

And how many Anti-Labour seats are there likely to based then? ((Yes, I know you don't know the "number", but the principle applies).

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Hold on, you said 4-5 seats.

Election forecast predict 1 seat
Poll observatory predict 3 seats
Ladbrokes "predict" 3.5 seats
The Guardian predict 4 seats
Elections Etc predict 4 seats

You said 4 to 5. It isn't 4 to 5, it's 3 to 4 at best, or more accurately, 1 to 4.

YouGov research from 18th April concluded UKIP could be underestimated in their level of support , there are mutterings in this part of the world that UKIP could capture a Labour seat in their northern heartlands which was off the radar.

 

[Simster]

And how many Anti-Labour seats are there likely to based then? ((Yes, I know you don't know the "number", but the principle applies).

But the anti Tory sentiment is far greater than the anti Labour sentiment.

The SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens and SDLP would all work with Labour.
Only UKIP and the DUP lean towards the Tories. (so would UUP but they don't win seats anymore).

Alliance and Lib Dems would work with either so are neutral.

 

[Mr Bridger]

I love the way clegg is assuming he will have the balance, when in fact he might have so few seats it will not make an iota of difference to anyone, have people forgotten how he has sold the students down the swanee, they for sure won't have.


also I think people do not listen to the SNP they are saying that whatever they will vote against any tory measures including the Queens speech

and to add to that how many youngsters would love to have an apprentiship, now the tories are saying the will make 5000 ,so why now what about the last 5 years

TORY PARTY NOT THE ONE FOR THE BRITISH YOUNG

You can say that about numerous policies of each government , labour saying total lack of housing, well you had long enough in power to sort it , where are they?

 

[Gwylan]

Dave will step down, the Tory's will have a coronation of Boris (who is hugely popular nationally). the Labour confidence and supply will collapse within 1 year and a Tory majority government will ensue with Boris as PM and no change at all to FPTP.

I don't think the Tories would be mad enough to vote Boris as leader, but if they did it would mean they'd be in the political wilderness for a decade.

 

[Triggaaar]

"A small party hold the government to ransom" is nonsense.

That's what Andrew Neil said. I agree with him, you think it's nonsense.

I don't understand your point. Perhaps you could illustrate it with some sort of example of a scenario that you're worried about?

I think it's fairly clear. If any party was only really concerned with the population in their area, and couldn't give a stuff about the rest of the UK, then they might be after more money/funding etc to buy their support, in a way that the other areas of the country aren't doing. If we had many small parties to represent each region, then they'd all be standing up for themselves to get the best deal, but if it was one large party representing the interests of the country, and a small party that didn't care about the country, just one specific region, I don't think that's good for the country,

 

[larus]

But the anti Tory sentiment is far greater than the anti Labour sentiment.

The SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens and SDLP would all work with Labour.
Only UKIP and the DUP lean towards the Tories. (so would UUP but they don't win seats anymore).

Alliance and Lib Dems would work with either so are neutral.

That's subjective and just an opinion. What percentage of the national vote would be in the Tory camp then if you added theirs and UKIPs together? Say 47-50%, so not really such an unpopular bunch are they!

Personally, I'm disillusioned with politics and the abuse handed out. I believe free enterprise is the way to make a country successful, and public ownership is inefficient. However, I believe in a fair society; benefits where needed (but not a life-style choice), free health-care and education and fair levels of taxation. IMO, 40% tax take is fair, but this should apply to everyone and loopholes eliminated. When you get to 50%, this just feels wrong to me.

However, as certain posters (Ernest, HT, London Irish, etc.) cannot have a sensible debate I avoid commenting much (this is symptomatic of the problem pervasive within politics). It's all "Yah-Boo", "you're the nasty bunch", "whatever your 'side' does is wrong", "Tories are evil and selfish". Until this attitude changes in politics, then it's a waste of time. I don't agree with everything that the Tories do, and I accept that the excess of business and individuals needs to be curtailed, but polarisation of views stops sensible debate about genuinely improving society for all.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I don't think the Tories would be mad enough to vote Boris as leader, but if they did it would mean they'd be in the political wilderness for a decade.

Boris represents the true face of the Conservative party , he would be their outward persona. The other prospective candidates for leader have the charisma of shop window mannequins compared to Boris.

 

[nicko31]

More evidence this government's economic record is overrated, and largely built on cheap labour and piles of private and public sector debt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32493745

Failed on pretty much every benchmark target they set themselves. Sorry Dave you may be "pumped" but the economy has another puncture...

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I don't think the Tories would be mad enough to vote Boris as leader, but if they did it would mean they'd be in the political wilderness for a decade.

I disagree,

I think it would mean they would walk the next election.

 

[Stato]

As the idea of post election coalition discussions comes closer it occurs to me that the make up of who will be having these discussions is quite interesting in terms of democracy.

Labour -Ed Milliband very likely to be an MP,
Conservative - David Cameron - very likely to be an MP,
LD - Nick Clegg - At present, behind in the Sheffield Hallam polls - less likely to be an MP
UKIP - Nigel Farage - Also behind - less likely to be an MP
PC - Leanne Wood - Not standing - won't be an MP
SNP - Nicola Sturgeon - Not standing - Won't be an MP
Greens - Natalie Bennett - Likely to get trounced by Kier Starmer - Won't be an MP

I understand that the Lib Dems negotiation team is headed by Danny Alexander who is also going to lose.

You have to ask yourself why they are bothering to let us vote for who we want to be in parliament in the first place? It seems irrelevant to who governs us.

Isn't the party system great?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I'm all for coalitions HT, unless one party gets more than 50% of the national vote (not seats). I honestly do believe the SNP propping up labour will be a disaster and wont last the term as they are a narrow interest party, are labours biggest rival in Scotland, and not interested at all in the UK they want to split.

I know coalition works well in Germany as it does in many countries, as in my opinion has this last coalition,and any system of genuine PR would almost certainly guarantee coalition politics int he UK and that every vote counts and we get a true representation of voters. But in this next election with FPTP we wont get a milliband PM coalition government, (unless he's lying or the LD's have a last minute surge) we'll get a minority labour government relying on life support from a narrow self interest non UK party whose biggest rival is the party it props up. You don't think they'll pull the rug in the UK national interest and bring down Labour, if there's a chance that either the SNP or Scotland will benefit from doing so?

In Germany if a party from the former East arose that was determined to re-split Germany into East/West, That was not intersted in a united Germany, that wanted stay in the EU but disassociate from West Germany, to massively increase borrowing and had an agenda to see a disproportionate amount of wealth flowing West Germans to East Germans to shore up their support in East Germany at the expense of West Germans, set out its manifesto only to favour those from East at the expense of all other regions, but still wanted to vote on issues that only affect the West. Could they become the kingmaker that Merkel relies on as the only way to be chancellor? could they be the next biggest party on Merkel's side of the political spectrum with the 3rd largest number of seats (15%) but only 4% of national votes? Would the people in Cologne, Bonn and Munich be expected to think nothing of it, there's no risk to the European powerhouse economy, after all we still get to keep Merkel?

No, there isn't a party which is intent on breaking up Germany but there have been numerous junior coalition partners with a small block of votes and wildly different plans to the main party. Take the 2009 election, Merkel teamed up with the FDP and they had just 9% of the vote, vastly different plans and were, and still, are hell-bent on privatisation and free-markets. If the FDP were in sole charge Germany would look very very very different....but their policies were kept in check. Whilst the details are different the principle is the same as the Labour/SNP set up I.e. the FDP were not able to hold anyone to ransom and flog off Germany's family silver and turn Germany into a raging free-market hell-hole.

Oh, and there's a solidarity tax here and has been for decades; plenty of money flows to the east at the expense of the West. No one seems to care

 

[Pavilionaire]

I love the way clegg is assuming he will have the balance, when in fact he might have so few seats it will not make an iota of difference to anyone, have people forgotten how he has sold the students down the swanee, they for sure won't have.

and to add to that how many youngsters would love to have an apprentiship, now the tories are saying the will make 5000 ,so why now what about the last 5 years

TORY PARTY NOT THE ONE FOR THE BRITISH YOUNG

Clegg isn't assuming he's going to have the balance of power. He's simply saying that it is going to be a hung parliament and explaining where the Lib Dems would stand in that eventuality if they were approached to form a coalition.

Bashing the Lib Dems as if they were the only party that has compromised their manifesto is just tedious. Labour have admitted already they didn't build enough houses and got it badly wrong on immigration, Tories said they wouldn't increase VAT and they did, they also banged on about Employer's NI being a "jobs tax" then increased it by 1% in the Emergency Budget. There. Was. No. Money.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I'm all for coalitions HT, unless one party gets more than 50% of the national vote (not seats). I honestly do believe the SNP propping up labour will be a disaster and wont last the term as they are a narrow interest party, are labours biggest rival in Scotland, and not interested at all in the UK they want to split.

I know coalition works well in Germany as it does in many countries, as in my opinion has this last coalition,and any system of genuine PR would almost certainly guarantee coalition politics int he UK and that every vote counts and we get a true representation of voters. But in this next election with FPTP we wont get a milliband PM coalition government, (unless he's lying or the LD's have a last minute surge) we'll get a minority labour government relying on life support from a narrow self interest non UK party whose biggest rival is the party it props up. You don't think they'll pull the rug in the UK national interest and bring down Labour, if there's a chance that either the SNP or Scotland will benefit from doing so?

In Germany if a party from the former East arose that was determined to re-split Germany into East/West, That was not intersted in a united Germany, that wanted stay in the EU but disassociate from West Germany, to massively increase borrowing and had an agenda to see a disproportionate amount of wealth flowing West Germans to East Germans to shore up their support in East Germany at the expense of West Germans, set out its manifesto only to favour those from East at the expense of all other regions, but still wanted to vote on issues that only affect the West. Could they become the kingmaker that Merkel relies on as the only way to be chancellor? could they be the next biggest party on Merkel's side of the political spectrum with the 3rd largest number of seats (15%) but only 4% of national votes? Would the people in Cologne, Bonn and Munich be expected to think nothing of it, there's no risk to the European powerhouse economy, after all we still get to keep Merkel?

And you have to ask yourself why the Liberals never "pulled the rug" or held the Tories to ransom to get a pile of their policies through. I genuinely think you're worrying about nothing. At most SNP will extract a few favourable items to benefit those north of the border. And to me that seems reasonable, in fact in England we'd call it great constituency politics. The idea the UK will be left without Trident, pouring bags and bags of cash over Hadrians wall and Scotland sailing off into the sunset is simply not going to be the case. In fact it's disingenuous to say it will be.

 

[Gwylan]

I disagree,

I think it would mean they would walk the next election.

Well, he's not favourite according to Populus

There are three things about Johnson: he's not much of a team player, which a PM needs to be; he's not good on the detail of policy, something else that PM needs to have and he's widely loathed by a section of the Tory party ... and divided parties don't do well.

My money would be on May as a leader, she's more popular among the Tory faithful

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Well, he's not favourite according to Populus

There are three things about Johnson: he's not much of a team player, which a PM needs to be; he's not good on the detail of policy, something else that PM needs to have and he's widely loathed by a section of the Tory party ... and divided parties don't do well.

My money would be on May as a leader, she's more popular among the Tory faithful

I'd agree with this.

 

[glasfryn]

Clegg isn't assuming he's going to have the balance of power. He's simply saying that it is going to be a hung parliament and explaining where the Lib Dems would stand in that eventuality if they were approached to form a coalition.

Bashing the Lib Dems as if they were the only party that has compromised their manifesto is just tedious. Labour have admitted already they didn't build enough houses and got it badly wrong on immigration, Tories said they wouldn't increase VAT and they did, they also banged on about Employer's NI being a "jobs tax" then increased it by 1% in the Emergency Budget. There. Was. No. Money.

this of coarse depends on how many seats the Lib Dems get which might not be to many

 

[yxee]

And you have to ask yourself why the Liberals never "pulled the rug" or held the Tories to ransom to get a pile of their policies through. I genuinely think you're worrying about nothing. At most SNP will extract a few favourable items to benefit those north of the border. And to me that seems reasonable, in fact in England we'd call it great constituency politics. The idea the UK will be left without Trident, pouring bags and bags of cash over Hadrians wall and Scotland sailing off into the sunset is simply not going to be the case. In fact it's disingenuous to say it will be.

They would certainly block any attempt to bring the spend/tax ratio of Scotland in line with that of England.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

They would certainly block any attempt to bring the spend/tax ratio of Scotland in line with that of England.

I agree with that. The balance of money pouring across the border should be redressed.