General Election 2015

[Bozza]

The ICM Guardian poll should be treated with caution, as it's markedly different to the majority of polls that have appeared of late, which either shows the Tories and Labour level pegging, or Labour pulling away slightly -- both of these scenarios will end up with Labour as the largest party.

The bookies must know something you don't.

 

[Ernest]

You do realise [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] that most seats and who forms the next government are 2 completely different things ? Funny how a 6 point Tory lead in a poll that is already shown to be discredited has all the usual suspects foaming at the mouth

 

[Ernest]

BTW next government being Labour is the favourite

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The bookies must know something you don't.

View attachment 64566

These are the "most seats" odds. You seem to be missing the numbers for Labour+SNP?

 

[beorhthelm]

Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.

er, isnt the point of polling to find out how many people hold a view, not try to match it to an expectation? obviously the ICM poll is an outlyer, but with the contrast to the betting markets, the UKIP and SNP factors, one does wonder how accurate they are at the moment. what could cause this demographic shift? clue might be in the point about professionals in the the sample, alot of office people off last week, gives some weight to the argument that polling doesnt pickup Tory voters well as they are at work.

 

[driller]

Sorry herr

 

[Ernest]

[MENTION=5285]driller[/MENTION] stop clutching at straws

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Sorry herr

This has already been posted and dismissed. Please keep up.

 

[Bozza]

You do realise [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] that most seats and who forms the next government are 2 completely different things?

Yes, yes I do. I was responding to a specific point about Labour getting most seats - nothing more, nothing less.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Congratulations, you totally missed the point I was making.

I made an absolute point not a relative but i can understand that may be confusing.

 

[Hampster Gull]

View attachment 64567

Sorry herr

isn't this where , if it was for Labour, that a couple of poster on here would be posting smug self congratulatory notes? I hold to my line though that one poll doesnt mean too much, fingers crossed more come

 

[melias shoes]

isn't this where , if it was for Labour, that a couple of poster on here would be posting smug self congratulatory notes? I hold to my line though that one poll doesnt mean too much, fingers crossed more come

 

[melias shoes]

Yes, vote Tory.

emoji106]

ok. I will.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Nice to see Red Eds promising to sort out the countries finances. Trouble is this is the man who didnt even mention the deficit in his party speech, from a party that left a message when they left government saying that there was no money left and after they led the country into the worst financial crisis in 100 years. Hmz

 

[Ernest]

Nice to see Red Eds promising to sort out the countries finances. Trouble is this is the man who didnt even mention the deficit in his party speech, from a party that left a message when they left government saying that there was no money left and after they led the country into the worst financial crisis in 100 years. Hmz

Try reading this

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/29/labour-government-not-responsible-crash-bank-england-governor-mervyn-king

 

[drew]

I made an absolute point not a relative but i can understand that may be confusing.

I'll explain. I never disagreed there was in fighting at the Labour party, especially the Blair/Brown issue. I just pointed out that you don't seem to accept that there is in fighting in the Tory party, and probably all of the parties.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Liz Truss, ffs, does she ever shut up?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Nice to see Red Eds promising to sort out the countries finances. Trouble is this is the man who didnt even mention the deficit in his party speech, from a party that left a message when they left government saying that there was no money left and after they led the country into the worst financial crisis in 100 years. Hmz

You forgot to mention the gold.......yawn.

 

[Machiavelli]

The bookies must know something you don't.

View attachment 64566

You're bright enough to know that bookies odds are a reflection of what people have spunked their cash on, on a betting market like this. So, that's not a reflection of what the bookies think, but what punters think who have put money on. It just so happens that there are a certain group with large pots of cash going spare at the moment.

And while we're engaging in a conversation, are my suspicions about your voting intention still 'wild' and 'inaccurate'?

 

[Hampster Gull]

Try reading this

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/29/labour-government-not-responsible-crash-bank-england-governor-mervyn-king

Sounds like a man too keen to spread the blame as wide as possible. A Guardian article on the twenty five people who lead us into the financial crisis had Mervyn was on the list. According to them he refused to believe it was a crisis that would spread internationally when it first took hold, he refused to bail out banks initially arguing moral hazard and that the Treasury select committee said he should have done more.

Btw Brown was also the list. apparently he was dazzled by the city, applied light touch regulation etc.