Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[LamieRobertson]

The one thing I do not get with this, is that this is leaked in a week where appears the number of new cases are plateauing and the R estimate has fallen to 1.1. <-- This data is from King's College combined with the Zoe app. They have the largest and most up to date data set being used.

Lets not forget SAGE use Imperial College (who have by and large been a joke through out this with their predictions), whose recent ReACT study was using ONS data, which uses a smaller sample of random general population testing plus actual data from standard testing. This ONS data is always at a minimum of two weeks lag.

No wonder people get confused when you have to groups coming out with widely different figures

 

[LamieRobertson]

I don't know how anyone looking at the crisis can not finally see that the government actually does have a magic money tree, its called the Bank of England! Where do you think that all this money to fund the crisis suddenly has come from??!

Although UK national borrowing has gone up by £200 Billion this year, the Bank of England (on behalf of the government) has spent £250 billion buying back UK National debt using freshly created money through the process of QE.

I’m perfectly aware of where the money is coming from...and it doesn’t come without cost...just like everything in this saga

 

[Bob!]

PM Johnson news conference at 4pm today

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

My wife has had CAR-T treatment , T-Cells extracted and modified to attack the Lymphoma she had. Problem with fiddling with T-Cells is a) your immune system has to be supressed for re-inserted cells to work b) she and others who have had the treatment have bad major reactions ( CRS ) . It has worked though.

CAR-T is revolutionary and the future for some cancer patients.

Good for your wife [emoji3] and good luck going forward


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[cheshunt seagull]

My wife has had CAR-T treatment , T-Cells extracted and modified to attack the Lymphoma she had. Problem with fiddling with T-Cells is a) your immune system has to be supressed for re-inserted cells to work b) she and others who have had the treatment have bad major reactions ( CRS ) . It has worked though.

I am really pleased that CAR-T has worked for your wife. I have myeloma and it presents the only possible cure at the moment although it is a long way from being widely available. I know it is a tough process to go through, I had a stem cell transplant last year and that has some similarities in terms of process, particularly temporary loss of your immune system, but is much less intensive. Wishing you both all the best.

 

[swindonseagull]

average age of death is 81.

And that makes it OK?

 

[beorhthelm]

The one thing I do not get with this, is that this is leaked in a week where appears the number of new cases are plateauing and the R estimate has fallen to 1.1. <-- This data is from King's College combined with the Zoe app. They have the largest and most up to date data set being used.

Lets not forget SAGE use Imperial College (who have by and large been a joke through out this with their predictions), whose recent ReACT study was using ONS data, which uses a smaller sample of random general population testing plus actual data from standard testing. This ONS data is always at a minimum of two weeks lag.

take a step back there. Imperial College isnt one entity, there are different groups doing different work. the React study is clinical field work, gathering data from random thousands of people across the country with tests provided. Zoe app is self-selecting group completing a questionnaire on symptoms. apart from the potential for huge divergence in demographics, the latter isnt as scientifically valid.

 

[Yoda]

take a step back there. Imperial College isnt one entity, there are different groups doing different work. the React study is clinical field work, gathering data from random thousands of people across the country with tests provided. Zoe app is self-selecting group completing a questionnaire on symptoms. apart from the potential for huge divergence in demographics, the latter isnt as scientifically valid.

But when the two are compare to what has actually happened since both reports, the Kings/Zoe report is closest to reality.

 

[beorhthelm]

But when the two are compare to what has actually happened since both reports, the Kings/Zoe report is closest to reality.

im not aware React is making predictions, its measuring incidence of covid in the population, it is reality.

 

[BLOCK F]

Fair enough.

In reality if I get laid off tens of thousands of academics would have been laid off before me, and the country would be a very different place ecen to what it is now.

I'm worried about my son whose job isn't secure, and who's not especially resourceful. It will be what it will be, though. I'm turning my 'office' into a spare bedroom in case he has to move in with us.

All the best

Ah yes, the revolving offspring.
London based son moved in with us for a few weeks earlier in the year, but is now permanently in London and he used our spare bedroom as an office. Funnily enough our teacher son is moving into a flat with a mate next week, so we will have an empty house. He hopes that moving will put him into a better catchment area to pick up some work. So do we or else he will be back, pronto, 'cos he can't pay the rent!
Anyway, I am eternally grateful that my career is over and done with and I feel nothing but huge sympathy for all those youngsters whose lives and aspirations are all over the place. I hope your boy manages to hang on to his job.

 

[The Wizard]

Arguments about lockdown aside, What a horrific winter this is going to be, no family Christmas, can’t visit each other’s houses, freezing cold outside, wind and rain, dark nights, restaurants/bars and leisure closed etc, its so bleak.

It was hard enough in April/May when we had nice daylight hours and some good weather. I fear for my own mental health and I’ve never really had those issues before, generally keep myself well by keeping fit in the gym but without that, not sure how I will occupy myself over a long bleak winter. I’m sure many are the same, whatever the little things that help us all day to day are.

I fear we are on the verge of a generational mental health crisis.

 

[Yoda]

im not aware React is making predictions, its measuring incidence of covid in the population, it is reality.

It's not, though. The week of the study, they were saying new incidents in ENGLAND were 96,000 per day. (Kings/Zoe 43,000 for the UK). ONS data was 52,000 for the UK.
Yes, Kings/Zoe is based on people reporting symptoms so add on 20%, but that is still closer than Sage/ReACT.

Don't believe me, listen to an expert:

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Ah yes, the revolving offspring.
London based son moved in with us for a few weeks earlier in the year, but is now permanently in London and he used our spare bedroom as an office. Funnily enough our teacher son is moving into a flat with a mate next week, so we will have an empty house. He hopes that moving will put him into a better catchment area to pick up some work. So do we or else he will be back, pronto, 'cos he can't pay the rent!
Anyway, I am eternally grateful that my career is over and done with and I feel nothing but huge sympathy for all those youngsters whose lives and aspirations are all over the place. I hope your boy manages to hang on to his job.

Cheers, BF.

My son moved out under a cloud some years ago (all lovely again, now) but I have had an extension built in the interim so it would be do-able if he loses his job to move back in for the duration, but hopefully (etc etc). He works for a law firm that manages house sale legals so all the while folk continue to move house he'll be fine. He was furloughed for a while at the start of 'round one' but has been back at work for months now, so there is hope.

Stay safe

 

[darkwolf666]

Arguments about lockdown aside, What a horrific winter this is going to be, no family Christmas, can’t visit each other’s houses, freezing cold outside, wind and rain, dark nights, restaurants/bars and leisure closed etc, its so bleak.

It was hard enough in April/May when we had nice daylight hours and some good weather. I fear for my own mental health and I’ve never really had those issues before, generally keep myself well by keeping fit in the gym but without that, not sure how I will occupy myself over a long bleak winter. I’m sure many are the same, whatever the little things that help us all day to day are.

I fear we are on the verge of a generational mental health crisis.

While I understand the potential for future mental health issues, my immediate concern, and call me selfish, is for those who are going to die NOW, not in some possible maybe distant future. These people shouldn't just be written off as some charmer has said, "as collateral damage"...

 

[Questions]

If this goes as far as Christmas then the 6 person rule might get broken once or twice

 

[Weststander]

MS food area very busy yesterday i was informed by the assistant that it was because of a potential lockdown .. this was 6pm ..now i know who was involved in the leak. ...apparently they are going to have a system for booking shopping slots nearer to XMas...via the internet ..wonder how many of the older age group that frequent MS will cope with that .....

I wondered about that. I would imagine that government/civil service would provisionally liaise with vital supply chain bosses.

 

[Weststander]

We have effing curfew at night here now

What went wrong? The Czech Republic was exemplary in the spring, but now high per capita CV19 deaths.

Is it possible that some luck came into it originally, in that:
1. You were bordered by countries that had CV19 largely under control?
2. Czechs weren't big overseas travellers last winter? Whereas I know for example that Brits, the Dutch, Swedes and Belgians carried on with their holidays e.g. winter sports.

 

[LamieRobertson]

While I understand the potential for future mental health issues, my immediate concern, and call me selfish, is for those who are going to die NOW, not in some possible maybe distant future. These people shouldn't just be written off as some charmer has said, "as collateral damage"...

Aye..but then there are people dying now because of mental health issues

 

[drew]

That is both selfish and unethical.

Surely the real collateral damage are those who lose their lives as a result of Covid related restrictions.

No, it's both. The problem is dealing with what is the immediate bigger problem.

 

[drew]

Aye..but then there are people dying now because of mental health issues

And there are increasing numbers of people dying from covid. Why do people keep banging on about it being one or the other but not both?