Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[Icy Gull]

Probably not a popular post but a practical one.

We have a population in the UK almost 70 million.

Most people dying of COVID are 80 years plus.

If we had a million deaths would it really make a difference to our country/economy as opposed to lockdowns which are clearly ****ing the working lives and GDP of the UK, not to mention the effect it is taking our collective mental health?

Would you think like that if you worked in an NHS hospital do you think? How fecked up are the staff going to be dealing with overflowing Covid wards?

 

[sparkie]

Probably not a popular post but a practical one.

We have a population in the UK almost 70 million.

Most people dying of COVID are 80 years plus.

If we had a million deaths would it really make a difference to our country/economy as opposed to lockdowns which are clearly ****ing the working lives and GDP of the UK, not to mention the effect it is taking our collective mental health?

All Lives Matter.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Probably not a popular post but a practical one.

We have a population in the UK almost 70 million.

Most people dying of COVID are 80 years plus.

If we had a million deaths would it really make a difference to our country/economy as opposed to lockdowns which are clearly ****ing the working lives and GDP of the UK, not to mention the effect it is taking our collective mental health?

Well, if we let it rip to that extent the number of cases could be huge at any one time. So who treats the borderline, keeps the economy ticking and buries the huge increase in the numbers of dead?

 

[keaton]

Probably not a popular post but a practical one.

We have a population in the UK almost 70 million.

Most people dying of COVID are 80 years plus.

If we had a million deaths would it really make a difference to our country/economy as opposed to lockdowns which are clearly ****ing the working lives and GDP of the UK, not to mention the effect it is taking our collective mental health?

I reckon a million people dying might have an affect on our collective mental health.

 

[Poojah]

I read it much more as a roadmap out of here, but it is the opinion of "some scientists" and the opinions journalists choose for these pieces are never going to be the bland ones that wouldn't make a story.

I'm afraid that, for me, it contains a lot of common sense. Covid is now endemic. Flu has never gone. Colds have never gone.

One of my mum's friends is a virologist who spent a lot of time at Uni studying pandemics and worked for GSK for years. She thinks that it's possible the current cold virus started out life as something similar to Covid and weakened over time. I think in one form or another it's here to stay forever.

The questions then become how do you deal with it and how good, really, are the vaccines. I can certainly see this lasting for several years with summers being "good times" and winters being pretty harsh. Certainly, if anyone thinks that Euro 2021 will be taking place across Europe with full crowds in the summer, vaccine or no vaccine, then they are stark, staring mad. It will have to move to a single country with BCD or restricted, socially distanced crowds and no away fans. Maybe now people will start to see why football is moving to a PPV model - we may not be back in a 30,000 Amex for a few seasons.

The alternative view is, of course, that no one knows for certain what will happen over the next 5 years, We are much better at science and technology now than in the past. Vaccines by themselves are certainly not a magic bullet but if we can combine a "good" vaccine with improvements in treatment of both acute and long covid and "instant" (let's say 30 minute or less) testing results then we will be very much more normal fairly soon.

And don't think any of that fills me with glee. As well as taking elderly relatives from us what this virus has done is effectively killed fun and culture. Sport, gigs, festivals and the theatre. With the exception of eating out those four things WERE my social life, so I find the above depresssing and stark. But we do need to be realistic, because that puts focus on those three medical things that could restore "normality" sooner.

The alternative, of course, is to just let it rip and carry on regardless. There are those on here who think that's the best strategy. Presumably they don't have beloved elderly relatives or know anyone working in the NHS.

You may be right, but I definitely find that assessment hard to swallow. A line in that article suggested that some form of social distancing may have to be a thing for ‘decades’. I mean, I’m mid-thirties and I don’t know how long I’m going to live, but that’s almost tantamount to saying that my life as I knew it is over.

And that’s thoroughly depressing.

 

[jakarta]

I reckon a million people dying might have an affect on our collective mental health.

Not really, I am of the generation that is seeing all my elderly relatives go so I am not sentimental about it.

If you are 80 plus you have had your innings, or do you think people should live forever?

 

[A mex eyecan]

Not really, I am of the generation that is seeing all my elderly relatives go so I am not sentimental about it.

If you are 80 plus you have had your innings, or do you think people should live forever?

if I’m following you correctly ....

let’s let all the old un’s die, just as long as everyone else go carry on regardless?

 

[franks brother]

It must be a devastating truth for all Tory supporters. Boris Johnson has not learnt, grown or evolved since beginning of pandemic. He is calamitously failing to manage crisis and keep people out of harm’s way. Rejecting circuit breaker simply because it was suggested by Labour.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

The devil will be in the detail as to what can stay open but I fail to see how screwing our economy EVEN more than we already have is going to help us in the long run. This is going to push a lot of businesses and a lot of people to the brink.

I do agree with you, but with scientist predicting a crazy amount of deaths, what else can he do.

He really is in a lose-lose situation, because the world is in a lose-lose situation and so many people have been irresponsible.

Kids and grandkids will be picking up the covid bill for years, and ironically they are the ones who don't give a monkey's at the moment.

 

[Is it PotG?]

It must be a devastating truth for all Tory supporters. Boris Johnson has not learnt, grown or evolved since beginning of pandemic. He is calamitously failing to manage crisis and keep people out of harm’s way. Rejecting circuit breaker simply because it was suggested by Labour.

Where is your evidence that a 2 week national break would have worked?

School half-terms were staggered all around this time, a load of claptrap.

 

[BBassic]

I don't remember much outrage on here at the effective cancellation of Eid mere hours before it was due to start.

At least we're getting 8 weeks notice that Chistmas might be a bit shit this year

 

[Rodney Thomas]

If that were the case it would've ripped the the entire student population in a week from one single case at each university, and that's based on the largest university in the country, University College London (41,180 total students)

Day 1. 1 case
Day 2. 6 new cases
Day 3. 36 new cases
Day 4. 216 new cases
Day 5. 1,296 new cases
Day 6. 7,776 new cases
Day 7. 46,656 new cases

Except not all students returned, most lectures were online (with minimal face to face seminars) and freshers / social events / bars were cancelled/socially distanced.

So, yeah, could well have been R:6 at some point. Stats, dont you just love them put of context.

 

[Bob!]

It must be a devastating truth for all Tory supporters. Boris Johnson has not learnt, grown or evolved since beginning of pandemic. He is calamitously failing to manage crisis and keep people out of harm’s way. Rejecting circuit breaker simply because it was suggested by Labour.

It wasn't a suggestion by Labour.

It was a recommendation by SAGE that the Government decided against. It was only when the SAGE minutes were released a couple of weeks after their meeting that Sir Kier Starmer started pushing it.

So they were ignoring SAGE, not Labour.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Expectations nothing like 2019 will be seen for at least 5 years, maybe decades with constant in and out lockdowns. There seems absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

If he doesn’t.......and our hospitals are overwhelmed.....what then ? It’s precisely about avoiding people dying in hospital corridors isn’t it ?

Instead of at home ? Where tens of thousands have done so this year already

 

[ken tiler]

Not sure that's correct - there are two things at play...

- The number of people each person infects (this is R)
- The speed with which that reinfection occurs.

Stuff I've read suggests that most people who develop symptoms do so between 4-6 days after infection, and that people typically start to become infectious a day or two before the onset of symptoms. I'm not sure what this means for those who remain asymptomatic throughout, but it feels like a good guess to suggest they also won't be immediately infectious.

If these are correct (and I'm not going to research that now at twenty past midnight) then no one can infect anyone the day after they became infected themselves as per your model.

I would also think that as soon as you start confining people to their accommodation, an R of 6 would plummet very, very quickly.

Forgive me if this point has already been made but I presume these figures are not really “cases” in fact but merely people who have tested positive for SARS-cov2, and are not necessarily infectious or present with symptoms of COVID-19. The false positive rate for the PCR test is likely to be very high and the resulting r values highly dubious. As a result of the accuracy of the current testing regime, I think instead we should be more worried about the overall all cases excess death rate as it would be a better indicator of something untoward happening. So far, in Brighton and Hove, judging by the figures reported on the NHS data site, and given my caveats about testing, the current Covid related deaths and bed occupancy seems very low. Nationally the figures seem to align with a normal autumn winter rise in respiratory rates. I see no justification for further lockdown measures apart from protecting the vulnerable should they wish. I firmly believe in the measures taken in Sweden and Japan which follow this ethos which is also advocated in the Great Barrington Declaration backed by Epidemiology experts at Oxford, Sussex, and Stanford Universities amongst others.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

It must be a devastating truth for all Tory supporters. Boris Johnson has not learnt, grown or evolved since beginning of pandemic. He is calamitously failing to manage crisis and keep people out of harm’s way. Rejecting circuit breaker simply because it was suggested by Labour.

Incorrect - SAGE suggested it.

The government would only have been criticised by some for doing it during half-term, resulting in less fortunate families having to stay inside and children suffering.

This is a terrible situation for everyone, the political point scoring is embarrassing at times. I’m sure the government wished they’d approached some aspects differently - in fact they should have IMO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[vegster]

Well, if we let it rip to that extent the number of cases could be huge at any one time. So who treats the borderline, keeps the economy ticking and buries the huge increase in the numbers of dead?

Dead people don't spend money either.

 

[The Merry Prankster]

Loaded question maybe but why are universities open? Can't everything (except partying and mass gathering) be done over video conference?

Libraries were more important when I was at uni but these days most things are online.

I don't remember doing much work at uni, it was pretty much one big party!

I'm sure you know the answer to this but it is so that they can demand full fees and get rents from students (student accommodation rent comprising a huge percentage of Uni income). Massively cynical.

 

[LlcoolJ]

I’m no fan of Johnson at all, but it’s fairly evident he’s a policy taker rather than a policy maker.

The information was "leaked" to The Times and the Fail last night.

Yesterday Raab was on TV telling everyone there was no way they would impose a national lockdown. So someone's chucked him under the bus.

No statement from the PM.

It's pretty bloody obvious that Cummings is in charge and is taking the piss.

I bet Shapps is sent out again tomorrow to deal with Sophy Ridge and Andrew Marr (with a metaphorical "kick me" post it on his back).