Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[Bozza]

Probably merits its own thread for a while. Thanks to [MENTION=189]Wozza[/MENTION] for highlighting this on the main Covid-19 thread.

Boris Johnson is preparing to introduce national lockdown restrictions from next Wednesday

The restrictions could see everything except nurseries, schools, universities and non-essential shops close until Dec 1

PM presser on Monday

Boris Johnson held a meeting this afternoon with Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove & Matt Hancock

They discussed new NHS data which shows hospitals are being overwhelmed

Ministers left feeling they have no choice but to implement national restrictions

PM said to be very reluctant to move to national lockdown restrictions but data has left him and other ministers feeling like there’s no choice

Jonathan Van Tam, the deputy chief medical officer, told ministers on Thursday morning that coronavirus is 'out of control'​

[tweet]1322294630906503171[/tweet]

 

[dazzer6666]

No surprise, looks like it’s been coming for a while. Depressing but inevitable. Will it work ? Not sure.

 

[Giraffe]

The devil will be in the detail as to what can stay open but I fail to see how screwing our economy EVEN more than we already have is going to help us in the long run. This is going to push a lot of businesses and a lot of people to the brink.

 

[The Clamp]

Possible? Inevitable I'd say. Utter shambles.

 

[Bozza]

No surprise, looks like it’s been coming for a while. Depressing but inevitable. Will it work ? Not sure.

What is your criteria for determining whether it has worked or not?

 

[The Clamp]

The devil will be in the detail as to what can stay open but I fail to see how screwing our economy EVEN more than we already have is going to help us in the long run. This is going to push a lot of businesses and a lot of people to the brink.

Yep.

 

[Stat Brother]

Boris Johnson held a meeting this afternoon with Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove & Matt Hancock


Phew for a minute then I thought I wasn't going to be reassured.

 

[southstandandy]

But the football will no doubt go on

 

[dazzer6666]

What is your criteria for determining whether it has worked or not?

Really not sure........so much conflicting info flying about, I’m also very worried about non-Covid related illnesses and deaths that might be escalating rapidly, overwhelming damage to the economy, impact of another lockdown on mental health etc. Part of me wondering whether shielding the truly vulnerable and ‘letting it rip’ amongst the rest of the population is the answer, but I’m not sufficiently learned or qualified to make a call like that as not sure if the NHS could cope. Latest hospital admissions appear to be more in the 40-60 age group than the last wave.....

You ?

 

[Hampster Gull]

 

[Stat Brother]

[tweet]1322303736933470210[/tweet]

 

[Giraffe]

I cannot see this having any chance of working. Firstly, if education remains open there will continue to be tens of millions of potential routes of transmission. Secondly, if it’s all to ‘save Christmas’, then any progress that is made will be quickly wiped out in December anyway. This is nothing more than a selfish political move from Johnson to cling on to his job as he knows the first sign of a hospital going under is him finished.

I think I agree.

As for saving Christmas this really gets my goat. Are people so selfish that they can’t see the need that for just this year we have to compromise a little on Christmas. Being restricted to just six for Christmas lunch really isn’t that a big a hardship is it? A lot of families may actually benefit...

 

[The Clamp]

I cannot see this having any chance of working. Firstly, if education remains open there will continue to be tens of millions of potential routes of transmission. Secondly, if it’s all to ‘save Christmas’, then any progress that is made will be quickly wiped out in December anyway. This is nothing more than a selfish political move from Johnson to cling on to his job as he knows the first sign of a hospital going under is him finished.

To be fair to Johnson, whom I cannot abide, this is coming from scientists and the fact that hospitals are supposedly n danger of being overwhelmed. A lot of other countries are going back in to lockdown. I don't see that he has much choice but to follow suit. I think in this situation he's damned whatever he does.
However , it is utterly pointless.

 

[atomised]

Strange that non essential retail is listed alongside education in the allowed to stay open list in that article

 

[Milano]

I’ve said this since April - this is the biggest overreaction in the history of humanity, driven by the immediate, 24/7, hysterical media and compounded by the most incompetent leaders since royal families ran the world.
It will get ****ing worse too, imagine once we’re out of this, the media will be waiting for the next one like the ambulance chasing wankers they are.

 

[Doonhamer7]

It’s definitely coming - look at Spain, France, Belgium. Even if they want to save the economy the NHS will be overwhelmed

 

[atomised]

I think I agree.

As for saving Christmas this really gets my goat. Are people so selfish that they can’t see the need that for just this year we have to compromise a little on Christmas. Being restricted to just six for Christmas lunch really isn’t that a big a hardship is it? A lot of families may actually benefit...

I will not be compromising on Christmas. Why should I. I'm sick to death of people saying that my Christmas needs to change at all

 

[Bozza]

Really not sure........so much conflicting info flying about, I’m also very worried about non-Covid related illnesses and deaths that might be escalating rapidly, overwhelming damage to the economy, impact of another lockdown on mental health etc. Part of me wondering whether shielding the truly vulnerable and ‘letting it rip’ amongst the rest of the population is the answer, but I’m not sufficiently learned or qualified to make a call like that as not sure if the NHS could cope. Latest hospital admissions appear to be more in the 40-60 age group than the last wave.....

You ?

I won't copy and paste stuff here, but my views on those two main points are covered HERE and HERE.

I'm slightly surprised at the timing as there are signs that measures in the North are having an effect (or, for the cynically-minded: something is having an effect) and new infection rates seem to have been broadly stable for a week or so now. However, I have seen suggestion that the virus is now moving from the young to the old which, if correct, will lead to a further rise in hospitalisations and deaths.

Back to the question, though. This is a virus that thrives when we lead our normal lives, mixing closely and freely with many others. So, taking hard measures to restrict that contact will absolutely work if the criteria is to throttle the viral spread.

The big question is what next? Well, we are within touching distance of the leading vaccine contenders to be able to unblind their phase 3 trial data and if any of these, and hopefully multiple of these, are as successful as hoped, we start to move into the beginning of the end of this. The end game might not be quite as quick as we hope, but we start to have our first real defence against this ******* thing.