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Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible



Stat Brother

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Jul 11, 2003
73,888
West west west Sussex
[tweet]1322318727392710656[/tweet]
 




Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
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Oct 8, 2003
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I am a university lecturerer in London. My college is hell bent on getting students back on campus. They are all back in London (apart from some sensible ones who saw some small print that asked them if they wanted to come in and said 'you're OK, mate, I'll work online'). I won't go into details now - it will take too long, but I am being coerced by my head of teaching to provide 'wet' labs (perfused tissues) in January to classes of 2 (instead of 16), repeated on 15 days (instead of 8) providing one quarter of the lab time each student would normally get. A bit like the Albion spending twice as much as as the entire matchday income in order to let 5000 fans into the ground. WTAF? ???

I told my head of teaching my plan is to not catch Covid as my risk of death if I do is 5-20%, greater than the risk associated with mainlining heroin (if you get a supply of the good stuff, and decent hypos and needles). I said if it is safe to come in to work I shall do so. Otherwise I won't. Because of this she has requested I have a meeting with my head of research (what?) to discuss my 'plans for returning to work'. Passive aggressive coercion.

Elsewhere in the uni, staff are being openly bullied into contact teaching by simply being emailed a timetable. I am supposed to write my own. What was initially contingency is now fact - timetabled, online, rooms booked etc.

The students are very generous with staff right now. We do nearly all lectures online and the students like it. I have teams meetings with individual students, as well as give lectures recorded and live (all online) and my workload has shot up (but not commuting 3.5 hours a day balances that).

The university sector will collapse next year if it isn't bailed out. This is controversial but.....I would close 70% of unis. I have worked as an external examiner around the country and some places are simply silos to keep kids off the dole for 3 years. They seem to get some sort of work at the end of it so why not cut out the middle man? Workplace apprenticeships.

Anyway.....I actually agree with [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] that it hardly matters what choices HMG make. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I disagree with him slightly, though, in as much as my impression is HMG have succeeded in garnishing each decision at every turn with little curls of poo, and putting these decisions on display in the worst possible light.
 


Bozza

You can change this
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Jul 4, 2003
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[tweet]1322318727392710656[/tweet]

Presumably he ran out of characters to also say:

Throughout: Lots and lots of people saying "What's the fuss all about? Hospitals are empty. Rampaging packs of llama killed more people than Covid-19 this month. False positives. WITH Covid not OF Covid. T-cells. Herd immunity. We have to get back to normal and learn to live with it."
 




Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,271
Withdean area
Quite how anyone ever thought we would get through a whole winter without any period of a few weeks when all bars and restaurants have to shut am not sure

Living in a ( as of today ) tier two area and a lot of places we shop at still being in tier 1 ( we are about two miles from county border ) the regional approach is rather confusing re what you can and cannot do

Though given all going on the number of folk who just ignore the advice never ceases to amaze - Nottingham students seem to live in their own "bubble" and were still going out in large groups up to this week - whilst also no shortage of under 30's and over 60's out shopping locally seemingly with the view "masks are not for me mate"

In Aldi this week there was a bloke wearing no mask. About 40 years old, he had what I call the bald, Chelsea thug look. People weren’t going to challenge him. Yes I know he could be severely asthmatic or highly vulnerable ... I wonder.

Some simply don’t agree with the whole thing, so give a 2 fingers to their fellow man.
 




Lyndhurst 14

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2008
5,241
Johnson's handling of the Covid crisis has been half arsed at best. At the start the UK only went into full lockdown about 2 or 3 weeks after most of Europe had already done so allowing the virus to proliferate at super spreader events like Cheltenham. This was then followed by the 'world class' test and trace fiasco and then the ill thought out Tier system. It seems that Johnson has always treated the virus as an annoyance or distraction preventing him from doing other government business. He must now be casting an eye over the pond at the US Election next week which has really become a referendum on the Trump Administrations handling of Covid and realizing at some stage he will be judged in the same way
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
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Oct 8, 2003
56,103
Faversham
If you’re going to lock everyone up and make the vulnerable stay home again anyway, why treat those who have a 0.01% chance of dying with the virus the same as people who have a 5% fatality rate? If we lock down, those vulnerable people will in all likelihood have to do some degree of shielding again anyway?

If you have a underlying condition that makes you high risk - try to stay home as much as possible. Full financial support.
If you have a household with a member with a high risk condition - isolate and stay home, fully financially supported.

The unbelievably dumb thing is that people will genuinely think they will release restrictions after 3 weeks, it simply will not happen and don’t let that date of ‘1st December’ be a dangled carrot again, they did this the first time round.

This.

I have been consistent since it looked like it had 'gone', in early summer: let most people go back to normal and shield the old and immunocompromised. And yet I am not sure anywhere in the world is doing this, are they? China? Why not? It deals with health and the economy in a way the current u-turning and faff will never do.

Looking at the graphs of this second wave versus the first, this now looks exactly like seasonal flu. The peak will be Jan/Feb. The only difference is we have no vaccine, and rather feeble therapy (and I'm now on an American medics renegade Covid treatment internet group, and it is still all piss and wind, even for the Trump supporting conspiracy theorists among them). So there will be lockdowns, many deaths and general carnage.
 






WATFORD zero

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Jul 10, 2003
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Anyway.....I actually agree with [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] that it hardly matters what choices HMG make. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I disagree with him slightly, though, in as much as my impression is HMG have succeeded in garnishing each decision at every turn with little curls of poo, and putting these decisions on display in the worst possible light.

Medicine's gain is Literature's loss :lolol:
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
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Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
This.

I have been consistent since it looked like it had 'gone', in early summer: let most people go back to normal and shield the old and immunocompromised. And yet I am not sure anywhere in the world is doing this, are they? China? Why not? It deals with health and the economy in a way the current u-turning and faff will never do.

Looking at the graphs of this second wave versus the first, this now looks exactly like seasonal flu. The peak will be Jan/Feb. The only difference is we have no vaccine, and rather feeble therapy (and I'm now on an American medics renegade Covid treatment internet group, and it is still all piss and wind, even for the Trump supporting conspiracy theorists among them). So there will be lockdowns, many deaths and general carnage.

I think leaders are worried if they do something different they will be hammered.

Without opening up the “do a sweden” argument - Using sweden as an example - the PM there got slaughtered everywhere for going down a different path.
 


BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
As I’ve said elsewhere I wont be going to work then. If it is not safe for me to visit a non essential shop, or have a family member or friend over, then it cannot be safe to sit in an office. I work in public sector and can work from home, as much as employer wants people in the office.

You are fortunate you work in the public sector, your salary is guaranteed.
Many are not so well placed.
 






Stat Brother

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Jul 11, 2003
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Presumably he ran out of characters to also say:

Throughout: Lots and lots of people saying "What's the fuss all about? Hospitals are empty. Rampaging packs of llama killed more people than Covid-19 this month. False positives. WITH Covid not OF Covid. T-cells. Herd immunity. We have to get back to normal and learn to live with it."
No much of that is in the subsequent tweets.
 






Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,271
Withdean area
Lockdowns don't actually solve anything. They are merely intended to buy some time.

If they can't stop the spread, what is the next alternative? And if they wreck a significant part of the economy, what happens then? How do those with no job and no livelihood, and little prospect of any improvement rebuild their lives.

It isn't about following the science, because the science isn't certain and a lot remains open to debate and different interpretations. Science is not a simple issue of black or white, right or wrong, truth or untruth. It remains all about opinions.

It is about finding a path between reducing the spread without destroying society. If the cure becomes worse than the disease, and the cure doesn't even work very well, what then?

I don't think anyone in power has the faintest idea what to do. Instead they are desperately grasping at straws and hoping something will turn up.

Which it hasn't.

“If they (lockdowns) can’t stop the spread”.

Lockdowns of the March onwards variety do, it worked, no argument.

But no one ever said it wouldn’t stop future waves after a long spell of near normal living.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
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Oct 8, 2003
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Faversham
You are fortunate you work in the public sector, your salary is guaranteed.
Many are not so well placed.

(Edit I just realised your post is not a reply to me. That said the same applies to me and the person to whom you were replying, so I'll not edit what I posted below.)

Indeed. Till I'm laid off at the drop of a hat, of course.

I'm not sure what your point is, though. Do you think I should just suck it up and go back to work? Nobody should be forced to work and catch Covid and die - that was half my point. The other half being everyone else should go back to normal life.

Obviously I feel for thosed forced to work or starve. That, happening in the UK, is a national disgrace. I know everyone keeps on saying HMG are damned if the do and damned if they don't, but if they are presiding knowingly over a situation where people are not financially supported and have no choice other than to go to work and risk their lives, Boris and his shower should resign now.
 


I appreciate the education motivation as kids have missed a lot of school; however the idea of keeping Schools, colleges & Universities open in an otherwise full on lockdown seems a bit like leaving the car window open in the rain and then wondering why your seat is wet. Education areas have played a huge part in fuelling the 2nd wave. If you want a short sharp shock to minimise contact I can't see this being it.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,103
Faversham
I think leaders are worried if they do something different they will be hammered.

Without opening up the “do a sweden” argument - Using sweden as an example - the PM there got slaughtered everywhere for going down a different path.

Yes, you are probably correct.

Are you old enough to have done the 'Untied Diaries' experiment at school? In 1967 out teacher wrote Untied Diaries on the blackboard and asked everyone to say out loud what was written.

Everyone said 'United Dairies' (the nations supplier of milk at the time) except one girl, Dianne Abbey, who said, blushing, Untied Diaries (half correct). The whole class laughed at her in mocking glee. We all felt somewhat foolish when the truth was revealed.

Safer in a herd, even, apparently, when the herd is galloping towards the edge of a cliff.
 




Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
5,467
Mid Sussex
I appreciate the education motivation as kids have missed a lot of school; however the idea of keeping Schools, colleges & Universities open in an otherwise full on lockdown seems a bit like leaving the car window open in the rain and then wondering why your seat is wet. Education areas have played a huge part in fuelling the 2nd wave. If you want a short sharp shock to minimise contact I can't see this being it.

That boat has already sailed. Cases in <21 are going down. This certainly appears to be backed up with the info from my two who are at uni. One went into isolation after 10 days, the other has fortunately been fine but the number of cases in both establishments have greatly reduced in the last week or so.

The issue now is that it’s in the >40’s so shutting schools is redundant. Not only has the horse bolted, it is now at the knackers yard being made into glue ....


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Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
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Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
Yes, you are probably correct.

Are you old enough to have done the 'Untied Diaries' experiment at school? In 1967 out teacher wrote Untied Diaries on the blackboard and asked everyone to say out loud what was written.

Everyone said 'United Dairies' (the nations supplier of milk at the time) except one girl, Dianne Abbey, who said, blushing, Untied Diaries (half correct). The whole class laughed at her in mocking glee. We all felt somewhat foolish when the truth was revealed.

Safer in a herd, even, apparently, when the herd is galloping towards the edge of a cliff.

I’m not old enough no, but I seem to recall doing something along the same lines at school.

But yes, that’s a better way of putting what I mean!
 


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