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fresh delays at falmer?







Seagull73

Sienna's Heaven
Jul 26, 2003
3,382
Not Lewes
Do you read my posts? This week the league's clubs top brass have been having their end of season meeting in Portugal (why in Portugal I do not know? Although I believe the league pays for it). I received an email this week from someone who had spoken to DK, he said he was hopeful that they would be on site in the new year.

So - it's not FACT, as you so vociferously pointed out in the previous thread, it's the "I've spoken to a mate who's spoken to DK" rumour.

Why on earth do you think that DK would say something like to that to somebody, when we've been to press that it will be December. And don't start sprouting your shit about how the club is lying, and it's all spin blah blah, it's not FACT, it's RUMOUR, and is serves your own agenda - AS USUAL.
 


dwayne

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
16,269
London
Fair enough. I'll buy that.


This is simple economics and you are both talking tosh.

Firstly this has nothing to do with supply and demand and secondly the credit crunch WILL adversely the time scales and cost of the project.

There are 2 major factors why the economic conditions of the moment are not conducive to building a big stadium

1) The rocketing prices of commodities will increase the cost of the project
2) borrowers will be asking lenders to put down more equity now than when the plans were first drawn up.

The only slightly silver lining at present is falling interest rates but I really can't see how and why the club are trying to spin the current economic climate to be a positive thing.:glare:
 


Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,930
West Sussex
This is simple economics and you are both talking tosh.

Firstly this has nothing to do with supply and demand and secondly the credit crunch WILL adversely the time scales and cost of the project.

There are 2 major factors why the economic conditions of the moment are not conducive to building a big stadium

1) The rocketing prices of commodities will increase the cost of the project
2) borrowers will be asking lenders to put down more equity now than when the plans were first drawn up.

The only slightly silver lining at present is falling interest rates but I really can't see how and why the club are trying to spin the current economic climate to be a positive thing.:glare:

It IS simple economics and there IS a fair amount of TOSH being talked.

With the falling UK demand for new buildings the contract prices will also fall - which will, at least partially, offset the effects of commodity prices driven by China and India, and any modest impact on the cost of long term borrowing.

It's swing and roundabouts... and at this stage, not anything to panic about.
 










Timbo

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
4,322
Hassocks
Just out of interest the prices for steel have been steadily falling for 3 weeks now:thumbsup:

3 weeks of falling prices makes for pennies cheaper products. Heres a few facts:

Demand in China, despite Olympic buildings all being done, will grow to 35% of the world demand compared to 15% 4 years ago.

Iron ore has risen 300% since 2004 and is expected to increase by 65% in the next year.

Coking coal, increase of 200% this year.

Scrap prices have risen by 85% since March.

Shipping is 250% higher than in December 2007.

Rising gas and Electric prices might put £10 a month on your household bills but for Energy intensive sectors, prices have risen by 300%.

As at June 6th, European steel has risen by 60% since December 2007.

Any idea how much the price has dropped since June 6th?
 




Barrel of Fun

Abort, retry, fail
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Barrel of Fun

Abort, retry, fail
That's interesting

Which route will the Bank of England take though??

My money is on dropping the rate 1/4 % not that will affect commercial loans as much as personal/mortgages

A tricky one really. I am glad that the BoE have control of this and not some half baked MPs. One good thing that Labour has done was to hand over control to the BoE.
 






steward 433

Back and better
Nov 4, 2007
9,512
Brighton
3 weeks of falling prices makes for pennies cheaper products. Heres a few facts:

Demand in China, despite Olympic buildings all being done, will grow to 35% of the world demand compared to 15% 4 years ago.

Iron ore has risen 300% since 2004 and is expected to increase by 65% in the next year.

Coking coal, increase of 200% this year.

Scrap prices have risen by 85% since March.

Shipping is 250% higher than in December 2007.

Rising gas and Electric prices might put £10 a month on your household bills but for Energy intensive sectors, prices have risen by 300%.

As at June 6th, European steel has risen by 60% since December 2007.

Any idea how much the price has dropped since June 6th?

Topped out at about £150 per metric ton (we were getting £110 scrap)

Now is £120 per ton and scrap is £80 approx depending where you go to
 




Timbo

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
4,322
Hassocks
Topped out at about £150 per metric ton (we were getting £110 scrap)

Now is £120 per ton and scrap is £80 approx depending where you go to

Even so, the price increases in everything, not just steel, have all gone skywards since £40m was bandied about. I honestly think we're looking at somewhere between £60m - £70m now.
 




Arthur

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
8,762
Buxted Harbour
Change the record. You've already said that in another thread and it wasn't funny first time.

It's true though, I've stated an opinion and asked a few questions that didn't particularly tow the party line as it were and I got called all sorts.

All I'm doing is trying to help some of you poor misguided souls.
 


steward 433

Back and better
Nov 4, 2007
9,512
Brighton
Even so, the price increases in everything, not just steel, have all gone skywards since £40m was bandied about. I honestly think we're looking at somewhere between £60m - £70m now.

The tender prices will come in aroud £46-48 million That's without the £5.3 million SEEDA grant
 


Arthur

Well-known member
Jul 8, 2003
8,762
Buxted Harbour
So - it's not FACT, as you so vociferously pointed out in the previous thread, it's the "I've spoken to a mate who's spoken to DK" rumour.

Why on earth do you think that DK would say something like to that to somebody, when we've been to press that it will be December. And don't start sprouting your shit about how the club is lying, and it's all spin blah blah, it's not FACT, it's RUMOUR, and is serves your own agenda - AS USUAL.

You believe what you want buddy but I can assure you it is FACT. Why would someone who has no connection to this football club what so ever and has very little prior knowledge of the debacle that has been Falmer up to now lie about something so trivial two days before Perry/The Argus broke this story?

The fact Perry has said December and DK has said January really doesn't make a blind bit of difference, it's the fact that the two of the clowns can't get their story straight about little things such as this, what are they like when it comes to important stuff like getting funding!!
 


I really can't see how and why the club are trying to spin the current economic climate to be a positive thing.
I'm not aware of ANYONE trying to do that. All that is happening is that a few people are trying to persuade the disaster-mongers that the credit crunch that is hitting domestic markets, most notably housing, isn't going to produce the same effect on a stadium project that has no housing element in it.

Stadium projects like Bristol Rovers' plans (where housing was a major part of the overall scheme) have been hit hard.

Nor is anyone arguing (or at least I'm not) that there aren't other difficult issues to overcome.
 




dwayne

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
16,269
London
I'm not aware of ANYONE trying to do that. All that is happening is that a few people are trying to persuade the disaster-mongers that the credit crunch that is hitting domestic markets, most notably housing, isn't going to produce the same effect on a stadium project that has no housing element in it.

Have you got proof of that?

Wikipedias definition of "credit crunch" is;

a sudden reduction in the availability of loans (or "credit") or a sudden increase in the cost of obtaining a loan from the banks

Now; I wouldn't say interest rates are particulary high at the moment (compared with... say, the last 30 years) but in simple terms, there is no question that the borrowing of large sums of money is a lot trickier now than it was 2-3 years ago and I would argue that the higher you levearge up the harder it's going to become to acquire funds, so a stadium would actually be impacted more than housing by a credit crunch.
 


Have you got proof of that?
I appreciate that some people think this is a very unreliable source, but I'm happy to read Martin Perry's statement on the official site:-


Perry also moved to allay any fears that the current credit crunch might affect the stadium project.

"We have structured the financial package to make it attractive to the banks, even in this difficult financial climate, and we have already received strong expressions of interest from tier-one banks.

"Working closely with our financial advisors PriceWaterhouseCoopers we are confident of securing the necessary funding for our new home and hope to announce a preferred funding partner before the end of this year."
 


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