- Aug 7, 2003
- 8,090
Le Pen will win. Brexit - Trump - Le Pen, a pattern is emerging. Not my political views, but the world is changing after years of status quo
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French presidential election.
- Thread starter larus
- Start date
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Le Pen won't win.
Of the candidates that didn't make it to the run off, none are more closely aligned to Le Pen than to Macron so their supporters will naturally vote for Macron by way of preventing a FN win
Of the candidates that didn't make it to the run off, none are more closely aligned to Le Pen than to Macron so their supporters will naturally vote for Macron by way of preventing a FN win
deletebeepbeepbeep
Well-known member
- May 12, 2009
- 21,802
I haven't a clue on this one. Is Le Pen like our UKIP and Macron Labour
Le Pen is far right, Macron is centre right.
bobby baxter
Well-known member
- Jan 31, 2014
- 719
Macron is a Blairite, allegedly.
topbanana36
Well-known member
Le Pen will have no chance in the second round as all the other parties will gang up on her regardless of their political persuasion.
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Le Pen is more like the BNP and Macron doesn't really have a UK equivalent as he's unaffiliated to a party. However broadly speaking he's a pro-business liberal moderate which would make him most closely aligned to our Lib Dems. Just without being tainted by failure.I haven't a clue on this one. Is Le Pen like our UKIP and Macron Labour
Early results show Macron took the most votes in the first round, with Le Pen second. In the second round it's very unlikely Le Pen will pick up many extra votes whilst supporters of the Socialist candidate will naturally plump for Macron and the majority of centre-right Fillon's supporters would sooner a centrist than an extremist, so would also tend to vote for Macron.
Supporters of the left extremist are harder to read but it's very unlikely they'd all sooner see Le Pen returned as president than Macron.
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I haven't a clue on this one. Is Le Pen like our UKIP and Macron Labour
There aren't any direct equivalents: the FN is more like our BNP, it's a bit more statist than UKIP but equally anti-foreigners and anti-EU. Macron is probably closer to the Lib Dems or New Labour.
The interesting result is that Melenchon was only a fraction behind Fillon - to put that into perspective, it would be like the Tories just pipping the SWP. If Hamon had stood down and put his support behind Melenchon, he'd be in the run-off with Macron.
Macron is going to walk the second round: the polls predict a 25 to 30% win.
East Preston Gull
New member
Macron is a lefty who served in Hollande's government but saw the Socialist slow death March and jumped ship to a party that he made up and has no candidates as yet.
He is going to struggle to get anything done without a party of elected candidates.
Interesting times and he will be forced to call some sort of EU Referendum if Le Pen can muster up at least 26% of the vote.
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He is going to struggle to get anything done without a party of elected candidates.
Interesting times and he will be forced to call some sort of EU Referendum if Le Pen can muster up at least 26% of the vote.
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Yep, i think you are right.
Exactly, Le Pen has little to no chance.
topbanana36
Well-known member
Le Pen will have no chance in the second round as all the other parties will gang up on her regardless of their political persuasion.
We get what you said the first time
topbanana36
Well-known member
Sorry double post.
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Fascinating result as the race has always been contested by the two main centre-left and centre-right parties so to have both fail to meet the run off this time round is an historic event.
Macron beating Le Pen will be seen as the more establishment outcome but had he been facing one of the more traditional party candidates the story would be all about how an independent with a new movement came along to shake things up and make history.
Whilst Brexit and Trump suggested a growing appetite for populist nationalism, Macron's potential victory would suggest that traditional centre-left/centre-right politics is what people are rejecting. And that's true of both Brexit and Trump too.
Following on from the Dutch elections seeing their right wing extremist party fail to win power this result will have a lot of people breathing a sigh of relief that populist right wing extremism isn't on a rampant unstoppable march.
People are sick of outdated establishment politics, but they're not all turning to reactionary bigoted extremists.
It's good news for Europe and the wider world so fingers crossed it's a sign of things to come with more progressives taking power from the establishment.
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Macron beating Le Pen will be seen as the more establishment outcome but had he been facing one of the more traditional party candidates the story would be all about how an independent with a new movement came along to shake things up and make history.
Whilst Brexit and Trump suggested a growing appetite for populist nationalism, Macron's potential victory would suggest that traditional centre-left/centre-right politics is what people are rejecting. And that's true of both Brexit and Trump too.
Following on from the Dutch elections seeing their right wing extremist party fail to win power this result will have a lot of people breathing a sigh of relief that populist right wing extremism isn't on a rampant unstoppable march.
People are sick of outdated establishment politics, but they're not all turning to reactionary bigoted extremists.
It's good news for Europe and the wider world so fingers crossed it's a sign of things to come with more progressives taking power from the establishment.
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Surely the French don't want Lib Dem or Labour to be in charge?
Buzzer
Languidly Clinical
- Oct 1, 2006
- 26,121
It's a fascinating election, if that's the right word to use. If you take race and immigration out of the equation, Le Pen is running on a traditional Gallic protectionist, left-wing platform that has appeal to the older French voters whereas her party's nationalism has huge appeal with 18-25 age bracket. The usual centre-right/centre-left 2nd round coalition against FN will be seriously tested this time round. All the indicators are that Merkel's mass immigration disaster and the numerous terrorist attacks will decimate the usual voting through gritted teeth to keep FN out.
As others have said, if Le Pen wins then it will make Brexit look like a storm in a teacup.There will be riots.
Edit - just seen Gwylan has made the same point earlier.
As others have said, if Le Pen wins then it will make Brexit look like a storm in a teacup.There will be riots.
Edit - just seen Gwylan has made the same point earlier.