Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Victory over Newcastle would boost our 6 game form to 1.16 so I'm not sure how much use such a volatile figure is ?
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[Albion] Form table
- Thread starter CaptainDaveUK
- Start date
Yup, right with you there on the xG. The thing I like about xG is that it's a single metric, and *theoretically* easy to understand (baffles me how so many on here fail to though!). It's a single metric that summarises what a bunch of other metrics tell us about our season: We're amongst the best at creating shooting opportunities, we're the worst at getting those shots on target (and even when we do they're within reach of the keeper too often), we're among the worst at converting so-called "Big Chances".
xG is an easy metric to share that does a decent job at summarising a range of other metrics (along with adding some of its own unique spin). I don't get why it's maligned so often for being a metric that "only tells us what we can see with our eyes". Sure it does, but it puts a number on it, and makes that number comparable across players and teams that the vast majority of us *aren't* seeing with our own eyes on a regular basis.
Xg just says nearly but not quite, which anyone can see with thgeir eyes.
we're on target for a whisker over a point a game . .39. Fulham 34.
but its all a guess in a random bizarre scenario.
we're on target for a whisker over a point a game . .39. Fulham 34.
but its all a guess in a random bizarre scenario.
paulfuzz
Well-known member
To echo what Thierry Henry said on MNF football is played by humans not computers. Xg is great for an analytical overview but no comfort to a side with zero confidence. I am not suggesting that the Albion do not play with confidence as we can see they do, every game for the most part.
schmunk
Why oh why oh why?
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Yes, agree with this, and I don't disagree with [MENTION=38194]paulfuzz[/MENTION] either. There are other -- more human, less analytical -- factors involved. And, yes, my eyes and brain tell me that we've played pretty well this season and are not lacking confidence, although I might add that we seem to be lacking confidence in our finishing -- the intention is that there is a circularity to this post.
Except when finishing. We're playing with confidence right up to, and into, the box. And then it's gone. Seeing a lot of poor decision making that's likely down to a lack of confidence in taking the shot - things like taking an extra touch or two trying to improve the position before shooting and then losing the opportunity getting closed down, or looking for a pass instead of taking the shot on.
Seasidesage
New member
If you look at that 10 game form table and then think about the defeats in there...it reaffirms yet again what my eyes are telling me we are a good team who cannot take the chances we create. We have been without some key players through those 10 games and most sides would miss our two wing backs and arguably our best defender this season and yet here we are 4th best record with several very very unlucky defeats in that 10 game record too.
Trick obviously is to replicate it in the next 10 games and so on but its possible that our turnaround has already happened and we have yet to pick up on it as a support group? Imagine if we ran that sort of form through a season? Tough ask obviously, but 10 games is enough to suggest it may not be a statistical blip at all but may be where we actually are right now? Replicate that till the end of the season and things will be just fine.
Lose to the Geordies of course and all bets are off but it is possible we are on the up rather than just struggling to stay up...
Trick obviously is to replicate it in the next 10 games and so on but its possible that our turnaround has already happened and we have yet to pick up on it as a support group? Imagine if we ran that sort of form through a season? Tough ask obviously, but 10 games is enough to suggest it may not be a statistical blip at all but may be where we actually are right now? Replicate that till the end of the season and things will be just fine.
Lose to the Geordies of course and all bets are off but it is possible we are on the up rather than just struggling to stay up...
I could give a few instances where things COULD have gone the other way...no really crazy things, but still fine margins:
- Last minute pen at home to Liverpool (Robertson accidentally kicked Welbeck when he didn't have possession of the ball) +1 pt
- Horrendous injury time open goal miss by Wolves sub +1 pt
- Alzate's deflected goal at Anfield +2 pts
- Last minute penalty to Villa overturned by VAR + 2 pts
- Last minute goal-line clearance by Dunk v Fulham +1 pt
blue-shifted
Banned
Definitely stuff which isn't crazy
- Last minute pen at home to Liverpool (Robertson accidentally kicked Welbeck when he didn't have possession of the ball) (Obvious pen - Silly by Robertson. He kicks him)
- Horrendous injury time open goal miss by Wolves sub +1 pt (that was a very young player, that sort of thing happens)
- Alzate's deflected goal at Anfield +2 pts (a bit lucky that went in, no serious commentators complaining about the result)
- Last minute penalty to Villa overturned by VAR + 2 pts (Would have been ridiculous if not)
- Last minute goal-line clearance by Dunk v Fulham +1 pt (We've got Dunky. That's what he does)
The other poster's list was mostly quite abnormal stuff ... and far from comprehensive, could have included the Connolly penalty at home to Man U for example
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
I don't think anything will ever beat the "fine margin" of Man Utd actually scoring a winner after the match had ended.
a margin so fine you could park a bus on it.
It'll be a WHN on ? of sport in 10 years. Sue Barker presenting after her 17th exhumation
Badger Boy
Mr Badger
- Jan 28, 2016
- 3,658
Yes, but the obvious handball happened during the game. Fairly straight forward situation really, but been played up to death because it was Man Utd and it's a tale of woe for us.
Stumpy Tim
Well-known member
I agree with that. The Connolly penalty being overturned was far more ludicrous
KeegansHairPiece
New member
- Jan 28, 2016
- 1,829
Given that was Attwell in that game, heart was in mouth when that Southampton pen shout in injury time was looking like going to VAR...
Hotchilidog
Well-known member
- Jan 24, 2009
- 9,130
Did it? handled two minutes after we scored with 30 seconds left of the allotted extra time. Also wasn't a corner the ball went out. I do not think I will ever get over the injustice of that game.
CaptainDaveUK
Well-known member
- Oct 18, 2010
- 1,537
- Thread starter
- #77
And now probably wouldn’t even be given as handball. Regardless if the ref blew to end the game surely that is of greater relevance than a ref blowing the whistle to stop the game (as the ball went into the net, although many would argue it had actually crossed the line. Overall we have had way more dodgy decisions go against us.
AZ Gull
@SeagullsAcademy @seagullsacademy.bsky.social
The referee for the Man Utd match was Chris Kavanagh (from........Manchester).
KeegansHairPiece
New member
- Jan 28, 2016
- 1,829
Okay you’re completely right. When has Attwell wronged us for the source of my confusion!?
Thanks for sharing this - really interesting listen. Actually explains why the odds for us being relegated are where they are - we have underlying numbers that the gamblers probably like the look of.