Five games left - how many points to secure a play-off place?

[Tony Le Mesmer]

It was the late late late injury time equaliser away at Forest last season that curtailed our season.
We never won a game from that game til the end of the season.

Hopefully not the same again, but as others have said, this season has so far been a remarkable carbon copy of last season.

 

[T soprano]

It was the late late late injury time equaliser away at Forest last season that curtailed our season.
We never won a game from that game til the end of the season.

Hopefully not the same again, but as others have said, this season has so far been a remarkable carbon copy of last season.

Even yesterdays game to me was a carbon copy of the home game last year against Middlesbrough at the Amex on the back of the Forest away draw
We drew 1-1 with Boro and came aWay from that game thinking I dont think were quite ready and might blow the chance of a play off
Yesterday we drew 1-1 with Leicester and once again I came away from the Amex thinking were still not quite ready and might blow the chance of a play off

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Even yesterdays game to me was a carbon copy of the home game last year against Middlesbrough at the Amex on the back of the Forest away draw
We drew 1-1 with Boro and came aWay from that game thinking I dont think were quite ready and might blow the chance of a play off
Yesterday we drew 1-1 with Leicester and once again I came away from the Amex thinking were still not quite ready and might blow the chance of a play off

Yes, but ... there's also the sense that Palace, Forest and Leicester are also blowing their chances, just like Middlesbrough have.

Most of the teams we are up against are playing like lemmings.

 

[glasfryn]

I voted 11 points
but those who have voted 9/10 could all be right
all the other teams have to play one another or have difficult games our last game is at home so I am hoping that nothing rides on it for Wolves.
play-off are always a bit of a lottery but we have as much chance as any of the others that might be there and knowing Gus he will know every player we might have to face and even know how he ties his boot laces
hold on it might be a bit of a SBT or a roller coaster ride but we must keep our nerve and more importantly so must the team

 

[T soprano]

Yes, but ... there's also the sense that Palace, Forest and Leicester are also blowing their chances, just like Middlesbrough have.

Most of the teams we are up against are playing like lemmings.

I'm really hope I'm wrong Mr Bracknell, And we can go to Middlesbrough next week playing a team out of form in a half empty stadium with no atmos it might suit the players not playing in an intimidating venue like at Forest or the expectation of winning at home and they can relax and not feel so tense

 

[SIMMO SAYS]

I'm really hope I'm wrong Mr Bracknell, And we can go to Middlesbrough next week playing a team out of form in a half empty stadium with no atmos it might suit the players not playing in an intimidating venue like at Forest or the expectation of winning at home and they can relax and not feel so tense

You're a bit pally with Mr? Bracknell--------I'm gonna call him Brackers from now on
BTW I think we have drawn too many and will just get pipped--hope I'm wrong tho

 

[blue2]

I suspect 9 points from five games will be enough I really think we will win our last two home games and Boro away

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

Why is the lowest option 7? We can make the play-offs with less than that.

My arbitrary judgement that just six out of 15 points from the last five games won't be enough! Very happy to be wrong on that, but will be very surprised if I am ...

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

I wish there was a "don't know" option because I honestly don't know how many points we need. I would like to agree with Titus that we can retain a play off place with less than 7.

Well, I didn't include a "don't know" option because, let's face it, none of us do. We're all speculating, guestimating and hypothesising. If we end up in the play-offs having taken less than 7 points from our next five games, I'll take my hat off to you. Or I would if I wore one.

 

[BensGrandad]

Middlesbro hold the key having got us Forest and Bolton to play. Bolton have also to play away to Cardiff

 

[pauli cee]

Bolton still have to play - Bristol City (a), Leicester (a), Middlesbrough (h), Cardiff (a) and Blackpool (h)
Leicester play - Birmingham (h), Bolton (h), Palarse (a), Watford (H) and Notthingham Forest (a)
BHA play - Middlesbrough (a) Peterborough (a) Blackpool (h) Leeds (a) and Wolves (h)
Forest play - Cardiff (a) Middlesbrough (a) Barnsley (h) Millwall (h)and Leicester (h)
Palarse paly - Ipswich (a), Leicester (h), Blackburn (a), Millwall (a) and Peterborough (h)
I reckon Bolton will get 7 points, Leicester 5 points, BHA 8 points, Forest 9 points and Palarse 5 points - this will probably come back and bite me on the backside but i reckon we will be ok.

thanks for that.
seeing that actually makes me feel a lot better

 

[Paddy B]

In the last ten years the lowest amount required to make the play offs is 70 and the highest was 75 (the last two seasons have seen the 6th place team getting 75) I think this year it will be 70-72 so 3 wins and a draw will do it!

 

[Northstandite]

A win anytime soon would be a boost. Other than CP, none has been in sight for what seems like an epoch.

The season for us could petter out into draws and losses, with the 19 month old problem continuing to haunt us .... a lack of goals.
The momentum lost from failing to beat little old Charlton at home, for example.

 

[TheJasperCo]

Average 2 points per game, done deal I'd have thought. Goal difference is important to remember as well (if no one else has mentioned it) - winning while also keeping clean sheets would be of obvious benefit.

 

[7:18]

I voted for 9

3 Wins:
Peterborough
Blackpool
Wolves

 

[smeariestbat]

whoever said 14 is either trying to be funny, or needs to go back to school.

 

[stripeyshark]

This is crying out for a poll. For what it's worth, I think 10 points from our remaining 5 games will definitely secure a place. Possibly 8 might even be enough, if our rivals keep slipping up (and there are plenty of six-pointers in the remaining fixtures).

I reckon we can get three wins and a draw - most probably wins v Blackpool, Wolves and Leeds. A draw at Boro and a surprise defeat at Peterborough, who are still trying to beat the drop. But what do I know?

Anyone want a £100 REMF bet? We won't get 14 more points. Anyone disagree?

 

[stripeyshark]

Palace seem to have the nicer run in too. They'll be fine.

 

[Blackadder]

I going 8 points. I think 70 points will be enough this season Bolton and Leicester have to play each other, can not see any team winning more then 3 games of the last 5.

This. I went for 8 for exactly the same reasons. Teams have qualified with 70 points before when the lower sides weren't doing so well.

Usually 74/75 is enough. I can't believe some people have voted for 14/15 points.

DO THE MATHS.

 

[Blackadder]

Ah, just realised that this isn't a public poll, so it's obviously away fans (ie palace) who voted for 14/15 points.

No Brighton fan would be thick enough. Would they?

Edit: we can't get 14. Who was that bozo?