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[Albion] Final league position prediction.



darkwolf666

darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,651
Sittingbourne, Kent
spanish flair said:
No matter how much better the football is, the gathering of points compared with other teams in the bottom half is not, (the bottom teams are all better this season) so 17/18
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I will reply to this post, as I don’t know how to link all the quotes together in one post - sorry!

Clearly I didn’t understand where you were coming from, and didn’t see what you were trying to get at... however, it is still flawed logic, as you can’t compare points gathered from last season to those gathered this. All that matters is where we sit in comparison to those around us, this season.

I took your original statement to mean we weren’t gathering as many points THIS season, compared to those below and around us! As far as I am aware no team has ever been promoted or relegated because they got more or less points than those in a similar position the previous year...
 




Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
27,221
11th, really annoyingly outside the top half, but top of the bottom half.
 




spanish flair

spanish flair

Well-known member
Jan 30, 2014
2,349
Brighton
darkwolf666 said:
I will reply to this post, as I don’t know how to link all the quotes together in one post - sorry!

Clearly I didn’t understand where you were coming from, and didn’t see what you were trying to get at... however, it is still flawed logic, as you can’t compare points gathered from last season to those gathered this. All that matters is where we sit in comparison to those around us, this season.

I took your original statement to mean we weren’t gathering as many points THIS season, compared to those below and around us! As far as I am aware no team has ever been promoted or relegated because they got more or less points than those in a similar position the previous year...
Click to expand...

At this point last season we were 10 points clear of the relegation places and not four as we are now
Huddersfield and Fulham we’re practically gone leaving one place to fill
The teams that are at the bottom now are showing some signs of recovery as Southampton did last season
to finish 5 points above us
So I feel we are vulnerable especially as sounds coming out of the club appears there is little chance we are going to strengthen in this window. This was the same stance the club took in the last January window and we escaped by the skin of our teeth. What I are am saying, the clubs at the bottom are picking up points better and than the clubs down there last season, we are not.
 


GT49er

GT49er

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 1, 2009
49,181
Gloucester
spanish flair said:
I was hoping you would tell what is wrong with my stats, when as you suggested I checked them out, which I did and it doesn’t change my view
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It's your analysis of them, especially the things you're not factoring in, that's wrong. Like not factoring in the fact we imploded last year, that (although many of us didn't realise it then) we were running out of steam, and more importantly had run out of ideas. Like not factoring in that this season after 21 games we've already played all six of our away matches with the big six. Plus the fact that no two seasons pan out the same way anyway.
 






darkwolf666

darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,651
Sittingbourne, Kent
GT49er said:
It's your analysis of them, especially the things you're not factoring in, that's wrong. Like not factoring in the fact we imploded last year, that (although many of us didn't realise it then) we were running out of steam, and more importantly had run out of ideas. Like not factoring in that this season after 21 games we've already played all six of our away matches with the big six. Plus the fact that no two seasons pan out the same way anyway.
Click to expand...

Thank you for saving me the time...
 


spanish flair

spanish flair

Well-known member
Jan 30, 2014
2,349
Brighton
GT49er said:
It's your analysis of them, especially the things you're not factoring in, that's wrong. Like not factoring in the fact we imploded last year, that (although many of us didn't realise it then) we were running out of steam, and more importantly had run out of ideas. Like not factoring in that this season after 21 games we've already played all six of our away matches with the big six. Plus the fact that no two seasons pan out the same way anyway.
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A lot of what you say is true, but it does not stop me worrying that we do have a weakness for not being able to close games down. It also worries me that it appears we are not seriously looking to increase our strike force
An injury to Maupay could seriously have an impact on a fight for survival.
 




W

warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,385
Beaminster, Dorset
spanish flair said:
the clubs at the bottom are picking up points better and than the clubs down there last season, we are not.
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True that Watford and Saints are having a purple patch, but so did Bournemouth at start of season, and Newcastle in November/ early Dec. Of the 8 teams at the bottom, only Watford (9) have gained appreciably more points than Albion (5) in last 5 games. Burnley, Villa and WHU all gained 6, Bournemouth 4, Newcastle & Norwich 3.

The gap saved us last season. This season it is unlikely we shall repeat the 2 wins from now to end of season. If so, we shall be relegated, end of. 4 wins and 4 draws will probably be enough.

The issue for Newcastle, Villa, Bournemouth and Norwich is injuries. I fancy the three will come from them + Watford as I don't think Pearson pixie dust will go on too long.
 












spence

spence

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Oct 15, 2014
9,953
Crawley




moggy

moggy

Well-known member
Oct 15, 2003
5,061
southwick




Seagull

Seagull

Yes I eat anything
Feb 28, 2009
804
On the wing
spence said:
According to that. 2 away draws and the rest all defeats ? No way we are going to win 6 home matches either.
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No it is a bit clunky in its individual scores but gives an overall view that shifts according to results over time. We have hovered roughly between a final position 10th & 16th this season on their reckoning.
 


spence

spence

British and Proud
Oct 15, 2014
9,953
Crawley




*Gullsworth*

*Gullsworth*

My Hair is like his hair
Jan 20, 2006
9,351
West...West.......WEST SUSSEX
spence said:
According to that. 2 away draws and the rest all defeats ? No way we are going to win 6 home matches either.
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Agreed, while I fancy our chances for points against Arsenal and Man United, I cannot see us winning BOTH, possible but highly unlikely. Having said that I would settle for that set of results even though our away games would produce little points yield.
 




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