Fascinating Story in the FT

[Kalimantan Gull]

Understandable theory, however I’ve read quite a bit now about lots of different epidemiologists thinking this virus either hasn’t mutated, or isn’t likely to significantly in the future. If anything, they were suggesting it was likely to become milder if altering at all.

Sure, I'm not really talking about the virus mutating, but the virus combining with a similar virus from an animal host which has made it deadly. I read a report somewhere the other day where some initial studies suggested that the virus was 90% similar to a bat coronavirus and 10% to a pangolin version, and hypothesising that the two had combined, maybe in an animal market where the two species were held in close proximity.

But its also possible that the bat one was already circulating in humans, and the 10% from the pangolin combined later. Or something completely different. All wild speculation of course.

 

[Beach Hut]

But interestingly, and of course not unexpectedly, it was not pooh-poohed.

And so it shouldn't as although medically unproven it might possibly be correct but until people are tested no-one knows

 

[Bodian]

Sure, I'm not really talking about the virus mutating, but the virus combining with a similar virus from an animal host which has made it deadly. I read a report somewhere the other day where some initial studies suggested that the virus was 90% similar to a bat coronavirus and 10% to a pangolin version, and hypothesising that the two had combined, maybe in an animal market where the two species were held in close proximity.

But its also possible that the bat one was already circulating in humans, and the 10% from the pangolin combined later. Or something completely different. All wild speculation of course.

Or maybe that as we weren't testing for it, and didn't know it existed - then those dying of pneumonia, flu and other underlying health conditions were logged as just that. Whereas now, you die of the same thing but test positive for covid-19 as well because there are tests for it. There seem to be very few people in the UK who have actually died directly of covid-19, they die of the other, but covid 19 is obviously a major contributing factor in stopping them fighting the other ailments - it's the thing that pushes them over the edge.

 

[Mellotron]

Or maybe that as we weren't testing for it, and didn't know it existed - then those dying of pneumonia, flu and other underlying health conditions were logged as just that. Whereas now, you die of the same thing but test positive for covid-19 as well because there are tests for it. There seem to be very few people in the UK who have actually died directly of covid-19, they die of the other, but covid 19 is obviously a major contributing factor in stopping them fighting the other ailments - it's the thing that pushes them over the edge.

Not to downplay the seriousness of the virus, but someone leading - I’ll try to find the quote - did say that as many as 2/3rds of coronavirus deaths would be people “who may have died anyway”.

 

[Si Gull]

Not to downplay the seriousness of the virus, but someone leading - I’ll try to find the quote - did say that as many as 2/3rds of coronavirus deaths would be people “who may have died anyway”.

That may be so, but they wouldn't all have died in the space of a month and brought the NHS to its knees.

 

[Triggaaar]

Not to downplay the seriousness of the virus, but someone leading - I’ll try to find the quote - did say that as many as 2/3rds of coronavirus deaths would be people “who may have died anyway”.

Well we all may die. But 2/3rds were going to die this year? Not so sure.

 

[Mellotron]

That may be so, but they wouldn't all have died in the space of a month and brought the NHS to its knees.

Absolutely, not disagreeing with that.

 

[Bodian]

That may be so, but they wouldn't all have died in the space of a month and brought the NHS to its knees.

Yes - fair point. But at the moment, overall deaths in the UK for 2020 for this time of the year is lower than for same period in the last five years.

http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-how-the-current-number-of-people-dying-in-the-uk-compares-to-the-past-decade-134420

This may well change in the next few weeks. And it's the overall strain on the NHS from the sudden rush of previously vulnerable people that get worse that is the real concern.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Or maybe that as we weren't testing for it, and didn't know it existed - then those dying of pneumonia, flu and other underlying health conditions were logged as just that. Whereas now, you die of the same thing but test positive for covid-19 as well because there are tests for it. There seem to be very few people in the UK who have actually died directly of covid-19, they die of the other, but covid 19 is obviously a major contributing factor in stopping them fighting the other ailments - it's the thing that pushes them over the edge.

But they're hasn't been any big spike in flu deaths, just 100 people this winter so far. We'd know if our hospitals were full of people with a strange respiratory disease, the Chinese picked up on it quite early

 

[Triggaaar]

Right, IF there is any truth in this theory, that weaker version would still be here, and would still be showing up as a positive test for coronavirus, and thus the modelling being done by this scientist could be completely accurate that 50% of the population have been exposed to this virus - but its not the deadly strain that has recently arrived and is tearing through the other 50% of the population.....

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Not impossible mr trig.......

 

[Bakero]

Not to downplay the seriousness of the virus, but someone leading - I’ll try to find the quote - did say that as many as 2/3rds of coronavirus deaths would be people “who may have died anyway”.

Well we all may die. But 2/3rds were going to die this year? Not so sure.

This guy? https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

 

[pb21]

I'm feeling quite optimistic with this analysis, at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if thing's aren't getting back to normal sooner than currently expected. Trump may be right with his Easter assertion.

 

[Machiavelli]

Not to downplay the seriousness of the virus, but someone leading - I’ll try to find the quote - did say that as many as 2/3rds of coronavirus deaths would be people “who may have died anyway”.

It was Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College. He was speaking to parliament (yesterday and to a select committee, I think on both counts)

 

[Machiavelli]

I'm feeling quite optimistic with this analysis, at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if thing's aren't getting back to normal sooner than currently expected. Trump may be right with his Easter assertion.

How so? Have you looked at the 'curve' in the US? It's not curving, it's just heading straight upwards. My hunch is the CV news story will increasingly shift to the US in the coming weeks.

 

[dazzer6666]

I'm feeling quite optimistic with this analysis, at the moment I wouldn't be surprised if thing's aren't getting back to normal sooner than currently expected. Trump may be right with his Easter assertion.

Possible irony here is that some countries may be inching towards getting back to normal by then, but probably not the US..........................

 

[The Spanish]

How so? Have you looked at the 'curve' in the US? It's not curving, it's just heading straight upwards. My hunch is the CV news story will increasingly shift to the US in the coming weeks.

In which case let’s hope there’s some empathy and not smugness or weird satisfaction on here about that.

 

[pb21]

How so? Have you looked at the 'curve' in the US? It's not curving, it's just heading straight upwards. My hunch is the CV news story will increasingly shift to the US in the coming weeks.

I appreciate things do not look good for the US at the moment.

However, if this has been around in the UK since January and 50% are now immune as they have already had the virus or are experiencing minor symptoms (as the Oxford model suggests) then we would be close to the 'herd immunity point' of ~60%.

Maybe I am tending towards comforting lies though.

 

[Triggaaar]

Right, IF there is any truth in this theory, that weaker version would still be here, and would still be showing up as a positive test for coronavirus, and thus the modelling being done by this scientist could be completely accurate that 50% of the population have been exposed to this virus - but its not the deadly strain that has recently arrived and is tearing through the other 50% of the population.....

Meanwhile...

we have to remember that only a small proportion of the population has so far come into contact with this virus

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Meanwhile...

I'm talking about two very different things matey....


My unsubstantiated, speculative hypothesis was that an earlier version of this virus has circulated and up to half the population has come into contact with it, and they will have some immunity to this current version, and the other 50% won't.

But regardless of whether there is any truth in that, I believe it is true to say that a very small proportion of the population have come into contact with Covid19.

Which you would realise if you had read my posts properly