[Football] FA Cup odds

[Victor Chandler]

Something about your user name and confident response tells me i'm questioning someone who knows a lot more than me, but this has never really made sense to me.

Presumably at some stage they have to open the book on a particular event, so at that stage they are relying on their own judgement. Isn't it a mix of both likelihood and the weight of money being bet?

And what about events where you have a large number of dumb people betting with their hearts, say for example England to win the world cup final (in some counterfactual universe where we didn't bugger it up every time and got to the final). Surely the bookies can't adjust the odds too much in favour of England, because they know full well, that someone intelligent, will take full advantage by placing a thumping great bet on the opposition.

The very first bookmaker to open the book may use some (limited) judgement/analysis to determine the odds. However, the market sorts itself out very quickly. Very little money will trade on those initial odds as the bookmaker will know the market has yet to be properly formed.

In addition, in practice, with the advent of exchanges the trader working for the bookmaker setting those initial odds will most likely be taking a lead from the Betfair exchange.

If the bookmaker does open a book before Betfair forms a market then as @Peacehaven Wild Kids says the arbers try to get in quickly – usually get frustrated because they can’t get much on – and are then effectively banned because the bookmaker knows they are not mug punters. You can’t win unless you have enough £ to join Tony’s syndicate!

Bookmakers will always adjust their odds depending on where the money goes even if some of that money is “misguided”– That is how they make a profit as explained by @Peacehave Wild Kids with his example of tossing the coin. That profit margin or “overround” as it known is the figure the bookmakers work to. When it gets to 30% as it sometimes does in horse racing they are laughing all the way to the bank.

Absolutely astonishing punters use bookmakers when Betfair is available with no overround and only 2% commission.

 

[dwayne]

Think those game odds will swing back in utds favour as long as they don't pick up any more injuries tonight as suddenly they don't seem to have many players out.

Comparatively we have more players out.

Very different situation this time last week. Frustrating.

 

[Stat Brother]

I assume we're all going to be on Herr Groß to be on the scoresheet?

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

All I know is I got 33/1 with Billy Hill at the start of the season £330 coming my way!