[Football] FA Cup odds

[pasty]

I like a football bet as much as anyone, but have never really understood how bookies come up with the odds.

Can someone explain to me how PaddyPower have us as slight favourites to beat Utd (7/5 v 17/10) but Utd at a shorter price than us to actually win the cup (us 4/1 Utd 7/2)

Doesn’t make sense to me

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

I like a football bet as much as anyone, but have never really understood how bookies come up with the odds.

Can someone explain to me how PaddyPower have us as slight favourites to beat Utd (7/5 v 17/10) but Utd at a shorter price than us to actually win the cup (us 4/1 Utd 7/2)

Doesn’t make sense to me

I suspect it the bookies belief than Man City are clear favourites to win, but that Man U have a better chance of beating them than us.

 

[Victor Chandler]

The short answer is it is effectively the punters setting the odds not the bookmakers but that does not really explain the anomaly in the two markets - The only answer I can come up with is it shows there are different punters for each market and they do not entirely agree with each other.

The longer answer…

It’s not anything to do with what bookmakers expect to happen.

For each individual market bookmakers need to lock in a profit to cover all outcomes by balancing their book. They do this by continuing to adjust the odds to ensure, as much as possible, they are not over exposed to any singe outcome. They push the odds out to attract more money. They reduce the odds to attract less money.

If near the off they find they are overexposed to any one outcome they might “lay off” that liability by having a bet themselves with another bookmaker on that outcome.

Good bookmakers are great at balancing their books. If bookmakers relied on their own judgement to analysis form to set the odds they would quickly go out of business.

 

[Whitechapel]

I like a football bet as much as anyone, but have never really understood how bookies come up with the odds.

Can someone explain to me how PaddyPower have us as slight favourites to beat Utd (7/5 v 17/10) but Utd at a shorter price than us to actually win the cup (us 4/1 Utd 7/2)

Doesn’t make sense to me

I’d assume it’s partly down to Rashford supposedly being injured for the semi but not the final.

That and the fact United have already beaten City this season whilst we haven’t beaten them since we were in L1.

Although as VC says above, it’s much more to do with what the punters think than what the bookies think will happen. It could also be them balancing out for all the people who have bets on United to win 2+ trophies this season.

 

[Bozza]

I’d assume it’s partly down to Rashford supposedly being injured for the semi but not the final.

That and the fact United have already beaten City this season whilst we haven’t beaten them since we were in L1.

Although as VC says above, it’s much more to do with what the punters think than what the bookies think will happen. It could also be them balancing out for all the people who have bets on United to win 2+ trophies this season.

Rashford has travelled with United to Seville and ten Hag says he is available tonight.

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

Rashford has travelled with United to Seville and ten Hag says he is available tonight.

Lets hope he plays and gets injured
same for Shaw and the other returnees

 

[JetsetJimbo]

That and the fact United have already beaten City this season whilst we haven’t beaten them since we were in L1.

Ahem: https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57066733

 

[Simster]

I’d assume it’s partly down to Rashford supposedly being injured for the semi but not the final.

That and the fact United have already beaten City this season whilst we haven’t beaten them since we were in L1.

Although as VC says above, it’s much more to do with what the punters think than what the bookies think will happen. It could also be them balancing out for all the people who have bets on United to win 2+ trophies this season.

Er, yes we have beaten City since we were L1, 3-2 the season before last.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

I’d assume it’s partly down to Rashford supposedly being injured for the semi but not the final.

That and the fact United have already beaten City this season whilst we haven’t beaten them since we were in L1.

Although as VC says above, it’s much more to do with what the punters think than what the bookies think will happen. It could also be them balancing out for all the people who have bets on United to win 2+ trophies this season.

Big Dan Burn would like to have a word……

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

That and the fact United have already beaten City this season whilst we haven’t beaten them since we were in L1.

Beat them in May 2021 - comeback from 0-2 down

 

[Whitechapel]

Rashford has travelled with United to Seville and ten Hag says he is available tonight.

Ahem: https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57066733

Er, yes we have beaten City since we were L1, 3-2 the season before last.

Big Dan Burn would like to have a word……

Okay, but apart from that my post was spot on.

 

[Peacehaven Wild Kids]

There’s two books, one for the match, one for outright. Utd have always been above us in the outright list and were favourites to win the match after the draw. Since then (after Chelsea, their injuries etc) money has been placed on us to beat them and subsequently we’ve become slight favourites for the match, the outright book has meanwhile probably remained quiet and with no money of any note flagging up bookmakers won’t bother changing the prices just for the sake of it.

 

[dejavuatbtn]

I suspect it the bookies belief than Man City are clear favourites to win, but that Man U have a better chance of beating them than us.

Just goes to show - the bookies can get it wrong.

 

[Carlos BC]

Er, yes we have beaten City since we were L1, 3-2 the season before last.

Great night out

 

[CheeseRolls]

Punters think there is a good chance Brighton will beat Man Utd. Man Utd fans think there is a chance they could win the FA Cup. Hence the discrepancy in the odds.

 

[Napper]

I'd rate Utd as the slight favourites , 60/40

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Er, yes we have beaten City since we were L1, 3-2 the season before last.

It was the only covid ballot game I got a ticket for, and what a game. Big Dan B with his long long legs scoring in the North goal.
Marvellous scenes.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The short answer is it is effectively the punters setting the odds not the bookmakers but that does not really explain the anomaly in the two markets - The only answer I can come up with is it shows there are different punters for each market and they do not entirely agree with each other.

The longer answer…

It’s not anything to do with what bookmakers expect to happen.

For each individual market bookmakers need to lock in a profit to cover all outcomes by balancing their book. They do this by continuing to adjust the odds to ensure, as much as possible, they are not over exposed to any singe outcome. They push the odds out to attract more money. They reduce the odds to attract less money.

If near the off they find they are overexposed to any one outcome they might “lay off” that liability by having a bet themselves with another bookmaker on that outcome.

Good bookmakers are great at balancing their books. If bookmakers relied on their own judgement to analysis form to set the odds they would quickly go out of business.

Something about your user name and confident response tells me i'm questioning someone who knows a lot more than me, but this has never really made sense to me.

Presumably at some stage they have to open the book on a particular event, so at that stage they are relying on their own judgement. Isn't it a mix of both likelihood and the weight of money being bet?

And what about events where you have a large number of dumb people betting with their hearts, say for example England to win the world cup final (in some counterfactual universe where we didn't bugger it up every time and got to the final). Surely the bookies can't adjust the odds too much in favour of England, because they know full well, that someone intelligent, will take full advantage by placing a thumping great bet on the opposition.

 

[LamieRobertson]

It was the only covid ballot game I got a ticket for, and what a game. Big Dan B with his long long legs scoring in the North goal.
Marvellous scenes.

Amazingly I got a ticket for all the ‘ballot’ games …that though was far and away the best

 

[Peacehaven Wild Kids]

Something about your user name and confident response tells me i'm questioning someone who knows a lot more than me, but this has never really made sense to me.

Presumably at some stage they have to open the book on a particular event, so at that stage they are relying on their own judgement. Isn't it a mix of both likelihood and the weight of money being bet?

And what about events where you have a large number of dumb people betting with their hearts, say for example England to win the world cup final (in some counterfactual universe where we didn't bugger it up every time and got to the final). Surely the bookies can't adjust the odds too much in favour of England, because they know full well, that someone intelligent, will take full advantage by placing a thumping great bet on the opposition.

There is certain % built in to every selection for example if a book was made on the tossing of a coin both head and tails would be priced up at 10/11 (as opposed to Evens (1/1)) given a profit margin (as long as there is a wide range of bets placed) of around 4-5% to the bookmaker. England to win the World Cup at 5/1 (when in reality they should be 10/1) doesn’t have any notable effect in the price of price of, say Argentina or Spain. Bookmaking is NOT an exact science hence how “arbours” can get in early, get the best prices to then trade on Betfair. However it doesn’t take long for the bookmaker to catch up. A bookmaker having a losing event, is a bit like missing the Number 1 to Whitehawk. There’s another one along in six minutes.