[Other Sport] F1 2024

[Audax]

Good predictions, let's see how you go this time.

My initial thought (I certainly won't be attempting a set of predictions!) is that you're correct about Ferrari being closer, possibly a lot closer. I don't think there's any other reason for Hamilton going there. People talk about the romance of it all and Ferrari being the team everyone wants to drive for, which is fine up to a point, but he's a winner first and foremost and will have been getting mighty fed up with the Merc's recent performance.

c.f. another red team that 'everyone wants to play for' in Man United. Not any more they don't. But they'll be rushing there if Radcliffe sorts them out.

I would personally LOVE either Lando or George to win a GP, preferably both, but I still don't quite see it this season. Will need some luck in Lando's case and a near miracle in George's.

Lando more likely, think I agree there. The McLaren looks better going into race 1 this season than it did going into race 1 last season. But that's as far as it goes - Piastri has said there's work for them to do (but last season they proved they can develop strongly in-season). Mercedes looked out of sorts during testing, but did eventually get decent times. But for me the "chasing pack" is really hard to predict, and it'll likely be a race-by-race situation. Bahrain, despite being used for testing, isn't actually a good predictor as it places specific demands on the car that aren't replicated at all circuits.

We also have a problem in that the testing patterns used by teams last week have made it very difficult to get a good read. I think it's looking something like this:

1. Red Bull (Verstappen)
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull (Perez)
?. Everyone else in some unpredictable order
9. Alpine
10. Haas

 

[Audax]

So who do you think would come in at VCARB (horrible team name) if Ricciardo replaces Perez mid-season. Lawson?

Lawson. Absolutely no doubt about it. He'll be at VCARB no later than 2025 no matter what - only question is which driver gets moved on (and how).

Ignoring the Mercedes-needs-to-replace-Hamilton situation for a moment, I think it's just a matter of a time before Perez finds himself with a P45. The only question is how much time, and that will all depend on how frequently he's getting beaten by the Ferrari boys. If Ferrari are genuinely closer, Red Bull cannot afford to have Perez going through the same dips in form he did for both 2023 and 2022. If Verstappen is out front winning races again, but Perez finds himself struggling to get podiums through the first 5-6 races, he'll be gone fairly quickly. I'm not expecting Red Bull to have the same luxury they had last year of being able to let Perez figure things out and still win the WCC comfortably.

Ferrari, I think, will be close enough to cause trouble for the WCC if Perez is underperforming again. And I expect at least 1 car from the set of McLaren, Mercedes, VCARB, Alonso to also be close enough to cause Perez headaches if he's still 3-4 tenths behind Verstappen.

 

[AstroSloth]

So who do you think would come in at VCARB (horrible team name) if Ricciardo replaces Perez mid-season. Lawson?

I much prefer the community given name of The Blue Balls.

 

[dolphins]

Horner cleared:

Christian Horner allegations: Red Bull team principal cleared of inappropriate behaviour

Red Bull's team principal Christian Horner is cleared of inappropriate behaviour towards a female colleague following an internal investigation.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[crodonilson]

I saw a particularly stony faced woman on SSN deliver the news earlier. Wrong verdict?

 

[Audax]

More rumblings via the Dutch press. Someone inside Red Bull is leaking stuff to them. Latest being that the alleged victim may be prepared to take it to court.

Given its coming out via Dutch press, the obvious hypothesis is the leaker is Jos Verstappen - there's a rumour that he and Horner have had a falling out, possibly linked to Max's issues with Perez.

 

[crodonilson]

More rumblings via the Dutch press. Someone inside Red Bull is leaking stuff to them. Latest being that the alleged victim may be prepared to take it to court.

Given its coming out via Dutch press, the obvious hypothesis is the leaker is Jos Verstappen - there's a rumour that he and Horner have had a falling out, possibly linked to Max's issues with Perez.

Horner exonerated but Red Bull’s lack of transparency does F1 no favours | Giles Richards

Parent company’s attempt to draw a line under the saga is a deeply unedifying conclusion for all concerned

www.theguardian.com

The Guardian much like Sky Sports News seem deeply unhappy at the verdict and lack of details on what Horner is alleged to have done and cleared of doing. As ever Lewis Hamilton saw the bigger picture, a prophet without honor.

 

[The Maharajah Of Hockley]

Christian Horner: Red Bull boss reiterates denial of inappropriate behaviour after leak of alleged investigation material

Allegations of inappropriate behaviour made against Red Bull boss Christian Horner were dismissed following an investigation launched by the F1 teams Austrian parent company; material purporting to be the alleged evidence in the investigation was leaked by an anonymous source on Thursday

www.skysports.com

That escalated quickly

 

[A1X]

Mercedes 1-2 in practice

 

[bhafc99]

He’s toast. Those messages show an obvious reluctance and concerns on her part, but insidious pressure on his - it’s not out and out abuse, nor is it necessarily ‘salacious and steamy’, but it’s clearly a guy working on woman’s emotions and pushing her into a situation she’d rather not be in. Mainly because she frequently mentions Geri etc, and he just ignores her comments and keeps nurturing the affair. Argument then becomes ‘what has that got to do with his job, people have affairs, including colleagues they’re grown adults who’ve become involved in a personal mess etc’, but as she’s meant to work directly for him at Red Bull, then the optics change. If the man had any respect for his wife, never mind this other woman, he’d apologise and resign. Preferably today.

 

[Creaky]

He’s toast. Those messages show an obvious reluctance and concerns on her part, but insidious pressure on his - it’s not out and out abuse, nor is it necessarily ‘salacious and steamy’, but it’s clearly a guy working on woman’s emotions and pushing her into a situation she’d rather not be in. Mainly because she frequently mentions Geri etc, and he just ignores her comments and keeps nurturing the affair. Argument then becomes ‘what has that got to do with his job, people have affairs, including colleagues they’re grown adults who’ve become involved in a personal mess etc’, but as she’s meant to work directly for him at Red Bull, then the optics change. If the man had any respect for his wife, never mind this other woman, he’d apologise and resign. Preferably today.

What messages - that post is just about as enlightening as Red Bulls statement.

 

[Bry Nylon]

What messages - that post is just about as enlightening as Red Bulls statement.

I saw the leaked messages last night. I didn't bother reading them all.

Assuming they are genuine messages, they are a series of flirty, innuendo-laden whatsapp conversations between two people working for the same company- with one person continually asking the other what they are wearing etc, asking for pictures and saying things like, "call me." When the other person responds that they are just about to get in the shower, the response is something like "Perfect time to call, then" accompanied by a winking emojie then an attempt to place a video call that wasn't accepted. From the messages I read, it seems like one person is placing unwanted attention on the other who tries to deflect and avoid and (seems to me ) to be relatively uncomfortable about the exchanges.

I didn't get as far as reading the message where one of them informs the other that they've had a wank in the aircraft lavatory, but I'm assured it is there to see for more diligent readers than me.

Again, assuming they are genuine, it doesn't look good and frankly, it doesn't look survivable from a career point of view.

 

[maltaseagull]

He’s toast. Those messages show an obvious reluctance and concerns on her part, but insidious pressure on his - it’s not out and out abuse, nor is it necessarily ‘salacious and steamy’, but it’s clearly a guy working on woman’s emotions and pushing her into a situation she’d rather not be in. Mainly because she frequently mentions Geri etc, and he just ignores her comments and keeps nurturing the affair. Argument then becomes ‘what has that got to do with his job, people have affairs, including colleagues they’re grown adults who’ve become involved in a personal mess etc’, but as she’s meant to work directly for him at Red Bull, then the optics change. If the man had any respect for his wife, never mind this other woman, he’d apologise and resign. Preferably today.

He didn´t show much respect for his first wife!

 

[GJN1]

Even though the Christian Horner saga is terrifically dull, it is still, by some distance, the most exciting thing to happen in Formula 1 in its entire history.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Even though the Christian Horner saga is terrifically dull, it is still, by some distance, the most exciting thing to happen in Formula 1 in its entire history.

I'm not sure what an independent Barrister-led internal investigation costs these days, but I hope they've kept the receipt.

 

[Audax]

I'm not sure what an independent Barrister-led internal investigation costs these days, but I hope they've kept the receipt.

Before diving into the below: to be clear I'm not in any way defending Horner with this. I'm withholding judgement and explaining my reasons why.

There's multiple sides to this, which I think an awful lot of the press and F1 figures are failing to consider as they spout their various noises on the issue.

From the investigation side: that KC will have been making a recommendation on whether or not Horner could be dismissed on employment law grounds. Whether or not what happened was morally right or wrong won't have come into it. Pure and simple: Does Red Bull have grounds for dismissal, and if so should they dismiss? I've not read the whole drop of content, but I have seen some of it, and I've seen a whole lot of people mouthing off about it online. So far ... I'm not sure that any of the "evidence" we've seen so far would be strong enough to pass muster for a dismissal.

As far as the investigation goes, I have respect for Red Bull's decision to (try) to keep it confidential. It absolutely should, and Horner's status as an F1 team principal in the public eye should not change that IMO. So for me the likes of Wolff should not be demanding transparency in the way they have been. I'd be very surprised if Red Bull's legally enforceable internal policies around grievance / conduct investigations don't stipulate confidentiality for both sides, so Red Bull's hands will be tied.

From the "evidence leak" side: it's very, very, very easy to create fake WhatsApp screenshots and/or edit real WhatsApp conversations before making the screenshot. The "evidence" leak that's out there so far could be anything from 100% faked through to 100% real. It could be 100% complete, or it could be carefully curated to create the maximum damage to Horner by subtly shifting the perception generated by what's been leaked. On that, it's not hard to do. I had to sift through evidence compiled by someone else (who had a biased agenda that eventually became clear) while investigating something a while back. I eventually discovered that certain pieces of evidence were missing - crucial pieces that gave additional context and actually shifted the blame away from the target of the initial pile of evidence and onto the person who had compiled the evidence. Not saying that's what's happened here, just that we need to keep an open mind at this point because we are only seeing "evidence" from one side, and it is coming from a source that clearly has an agenda.

Just in terms of the whole thing: there is very clearly someone (who may or may not be the woman involved) who is gunning for Horner. All of the leaks are clearly intended to damage Horner, and to force him out of Red Bull. That person is obviously very well connected within both Red Bull and Formula 1, because the email list that the leak was sent to yesterday was the current, up-to-date, list of F1 people who hold specific accreditation. For me, this creates a certain level of doubt as to whether or not the evidence can be taken at face value.

Assuming the evidence is real, and not tampered with, I would say that at the very least Horner's reputation will quite rightly take a massive hit. And it will then be for Red Bull to decide if the brand damage they are taking exceeds the costs of dismissing him and any action he might take post-dismissal.

 

[GJN1]

I didn't get as far as reading the message where one of them informs the other that they've had a wank in the aircraft lavatory, but I'm assured it is there to see for more diligent readers than me.

Does this constitute membership of the Mile High Club or not? Can you have an individual membership?

 

[Cheeky Monkey]

Even though the Christian Horner saga is terrifically dull, it is still, by some distance, the most exciting thing to happen in Formula 1 in its entire history.

You’ve obviously never watched NASCAR

 

[Bry Nylon]

Before diving into the below: to be clear I'm not in any way defending Horner with this. I'm withholding judgement and explaining my reasons why.

There's multiple sides to this, which I think an awful lot of the press and F1 figures are failing to consider as they spout their various noises on the issue.

From the investigation side: that KC will have been making a recommendation on whether or not Horner could be dismissed on employment law grounds. Whether or not what happened was morally right or wrong won't have come into it. Pure and simple: Does Red Bull have grounds for dismissal, and if so should they dismiss? I've not read the whole drop of content, but I have seen some of it, and I've seen a whole lot of people mouthing off about it online. So far ... I'm not sure that any of the "evidence" we've seen so far would be strong enough to pass muster for a dismissal.

As far as the investigation goes, I have respect for Red Bull's decision to (try) to keep it confidential. It absolutely should, and Horner's status as an F1 team principal in the public eye should not change that IMO. So for me the likes of Wolff should not be demanding transparency in the way they have been. I'd be very surprised if Red Bull's legally enforceable internal policies around grievance / conduct investigations don't stipulate confidentiality for both sides, so Red Bull's hands will be tied.

From the "evidence leak" side: it's very, very, very easy to create fake WhatsApp screenshots and/or edit real WhatsApp conversations before making the screenshot. The "evidence" leak that's out there so far could be anything from 100% faked through to 100% real. It could be 100% complete, or it could be carefully curated to create the maximum damage to Horner by subtly shifting the perception generated by what's been leaked. On that, it's not hard to do. I had to sift through evidence compiled by someone else (who had a biased agenda that eventually became clear) while investigating something a while back. I eventually discovered that certain pieces of evidence were missing - crucial pieces that gave additional context and actually shifted the blame away from the target of the initial pile of evidence and onto the person who had compiled the evidence. Not saying that's what's happened here, just that we need to keep an open mind at this point because we are only seeing "evidence" from one side, and it is coming from a source that clearly has an agenda.

Just in terms of the whole thing: there is very clearly someone (who may or may not be the woman involved) who is gunning for Horner. All of the leaks are clearly intended to damage Horner, and to force him out of Red Bull. That person is obviously very well connected within both Red Bull and Formula 1, because the email list that the leak was sent to yesterday was the current, up-to-date, list of F1 people who hold specific accreditation. For me, this creates a certain level of doubt as to whether or not the evidence can be taken at face value.

Assuming the evidence is real, and not tampered with, I would say that at the very least Horner's reputation will quite rightly take a massive hit. And it will then be for Red Bull to decide if the brand damage they are taking exceeds the costs of dismissing him and any action he might take post-dismissal.

Well I guess it will come down to how much Red Bull want to keep their man and / or whether Horner himself feels this is survivable. I look at what has come out overnight and think, 'ok - what will be released next?'

This feels like it is building rather than going away and whilst it is only my instinct, things like this rarely end up survivable for high-profile individuals. I think he will be gone in days, tbh.

 

[GJN1]

Well I guess it will come down to how much Red Bull want to keep their man and / or whether Horner himself feels this is survivable. I look at what has come out overnight and think, 'ok - what will be released next?'

This feels like it is building rather than going away and whilst it is only my instinct, things like this rarely end up survivable for high-profile individuals. I think he will be gone in days, tbh.