[Albion] Europa League odds

[fork me]

I just had a look, was going to place a bet. The odds on us winning the Europa Cup are only 14-1. decided not to bother.

According to the bookies, we're 2nd favourite (behind Liverpool) to win.

Much as I'd love to be confident and think we have every change of topping our group, these odds seem really low to me.

 

[zfleas]

SkyBet make us 3rd favs at 14/1, alongside Atalanta, Marseille and Villareal. Liverpool and Roma in front of us. Doesn't seem like good value to me either! Would be more interested in looking at odds for the group stage outcomes.

 

[fork me]

SkyBet make us 3rd favs at 14/1, alongside Atalanta, Marseille and Villareal. Liverpool and Roma in front of us. Doesn't seem like good value to me either! Would be more interested in looking at odds for the group stage outcomes.

Even worse! Most bookies have us favourites to win the group at 5/4. Hardly worth bothering.

Having said that, bookies odd give an indication of likely outcomes, and, even though it makes me not bother to bet, I'm glad to see us there.

 

[Mellotron]

Those are only the odds for now. Things will change dramatically when the Champions League sides drop down. Every chance we'll get a Sevilla or an AC Milan coming down.

 

[Silverhatch]

The narrative around Brighton not being an elite PL club is never reflected in bookmaker odds. We were 66/1 to WIN the PL in July. Now into 40/1. 5/1 top 4 in July and now 5/2. We are second/third favourites to WIN the Europa f***ing League! Pundits gurn about the top 6 and Newcastle but as far as the money people are concerned we are (rightly) bang in this fight.

 

[Spiros]

I view the Europa League as our best bet for a trophy this season as it's the only we are in that Man City are not

 

[jrbha]

It's close to impossible to predict a winner for the Europa League, as we don't know who will be relegated from the Champions League.

Plus there's the possibility of one of the 'big' teams having a terrible league season and putting all there eggs into one basket with the Europa League to get into the Champions League for next season.

 

[Gazwag]

I view the Europa League as our best bet for a trophy this season as it's the only we are in that Man City are not

Or the Europa Conference league

 

[Insel affe]

Plus there's the possibility of one of the 'big' teams having a terrible league season and putting all there eggs into one basket with the Europa League to get into the Champions League for next season.

Oh, I like the sound of that, shall we go for it then....

 

[um bongo molongo]

I view the Europa League as our best bet for a trophy this season as it's the only we are in that Man City are not

Good point. My main concern is whether we can cope with the number of fixtures. It absolutely spannered West Ham last season. We have the depth in attacking areas to cope I think but anyone who isn’t Pervis playing LB, or any side without Dunk, looks quite a bit weakened.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

I view the Europa League as our best bet for a trophy this season as it's the only we are in that Man City are not

Now you’ve done it, Man City will have a disastrous Champions League campaign finish 3rd and draw us in the QF of the Europa League.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Good point. My main concern is whether we can cope with the number of fixtures. It absolutely spannered West Ham last season. We have the depth in attacking areas to cope I think but anyone who isn’t Pervis playing LB, or any side without Dunk, looks quite a bit weakened.

It didn’t spanner West Ham the season before though when they got the Europa League semi finals and still finished 7th.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Barca went "down" last season from memory. The eventual winners Sevilla did as well.

The nature of this competition is that as the weak teams bow out after the group stage, a load of strong ones are added.

But. We play well against better teams. City are the only team in Europe we have to fear. And I don't see them getting 3rd place.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Since this current Europa League format was introduced in the 2009/10 season how many times in the ensuing 14 years has the winner been a team that had 'dropped down' from the Champions League ?

 

[jrbha]

Since this current Europa League format was introduced in the 2009/10 season how many times in the ensuing 14 years has the winner been a team that had 'dropped down' from the Champions League ?

Since 2009/10 5 of the 14 winners have been teams who have dropped down. Only 2 of those 14 finals have been between teams who both started in the Europa League.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Even worse! Most bookies have us favourites to win the group at 5/4. Hardly worth bothering.

Having said that, bookies odd give an indication of likely outcomes, and, even though it makes me not bother to bet, I'm glad to see us there.

Bookies are market makers. Their odds are entirely driven by flows of money and not the views of the bookies themselves.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Since 2009/10 5 of the 14 winners have been teams who have dropped down. Only 2 of those 14 finals have been between teams who started in the Europa League.

Thanks, that's very interesting.
So, around 85% of the time an ex-CL team has made it to the final.
And since this format was introduced EL teams have been successful almost 2/3rds of the time.
Do you happen to know the split between ex-CL & EL opponents of the 5 ex-CL winners ?

 

[Peacehaven Wild Kids]

Bookies are market makers. Their odds are entirely driven by flows of money and not the views of the bookies themselves.

Not entirely true as “the tissue” has to come from somewhere. However yes, the fluctuation as soon as the first set of prices is released is indeed more of an indicator.
The market for The Europa League is very weak compared to some football markets though due to the fact you don’t know who’s entering at the half way point. I mean, would you bet on a horse race if you thought you’d find El Gran Senor suddenly appear along side your nag at the 3F mark?

 

[schmunk]

But. We play well against better teams. City are the only team in Europe we have to fear.

The ONLY team...?

 

[Zeus]

Unless a giant drops out the Champs league into the Europa there really isn’t one single team we can’t beat on our day in the competition. This is definitely our best ever chance of winning a trophy.