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[Football] Enock Mwepu & The Relative Age Effect



AlbionInUs

Active member
Oct 11, 2019
139
US
Today, Brighton & Hove Albion have signed Enock Mwepu, Zambian midfielder from RB Salzburg. One of the things that immediately stood out to me was his birthday; January 1st. January 1st is perhaps the most popular amongst professional athletes, and is regarded as the best birthday for athletes. Other players in the Brighton squad born on January 1st include Shane Duffy.

But why? January 1st is the most commonly used cut off date for youth international sporting competitions. AFC, CAF, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, OFC and UEFA all use 1 January as their cut-off date when determining an athlete's eligibility in youth competitions. A difference in just a couple of months can make a huge difference in player performance. Players that are a couple of months younger are more often lacking in the physical and mental strength of their older peers. They also had less time to develop as a player. As a result of being perceived as “inferior”, these players will receive a lower quality of coaching, and therefore, are less likely to succeed.

I had a look at the transfermarkt to see how much of an impact the Relative Age Effect actually had. In the chart below, I sorted players worth €5m and above by the month they were born:

BA67CFC5-F622-489C-8C82-0A1E87E04B1A.jpeg

As you can see, there is a clear correlation between birth month and the success of a footballer. Most notably, 222 players born in January have a market value €5m or greater, whilst only 113 players born in October have a market value €5m or greater. So if you're looking to breed a champion, early April is the time to do it!
 










BNthree

Plastic JCL
Sep 14, 2016
11,458
WeHo
As in the UK we go by school year rather than calendar year for youth football age groups it's quite different here isn't it?
 




Mancgull

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2011
5,552
Astley, Manchester
Malcolm Gladwell has written a book called ‘Outliers’ which analyses factors such as this. There’s a lot of successful Athletes who are born in Sept when a school year group starts 1st Sept. ie they are the eldest in the class/ the Beatles played 100s of gigs in Hamburg and honed their skills, playing 2/3 times a day. It’s all about having an advantage and making the most of it.
 








DJ NOBO

Well-known member
Jul 18, 2004
6,819
Wiltshire
Bryan Robson
1/1/57
 


Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
25,940
Today, Brighton & Hove Albion have signed Enock Mwepu, Zambian midfielder from RB Salzburg. One of the things that immediately stood out to me was his birthday; January 1st. January 1st is perhaps the most popular amongst professional athletes, and is regarded as the best birthday for athletes. Other players in the Brighton squad born on January 1st include Shane Duffy.

But why? January 1st is the most commonly used cut off date for youth international sporting competitions. AFC, CAF, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, OFC and UEFA all use 1 January as their cut-off date when determining an athlete's eligibility in youth competitions. A difference in just a couple of months can make a huge difference in player performance. Players that are a couple of months younger are more often lacking in the physical and mental strength of their older peers. They also had less time to develop as a player. As a result of being perceived as “inferior”, these players will receive a lower quality of coaching, and therefore, are less likely to succeed.

I had a look at the transfermarkt to see how much of an impact the Relative Age Effect actually had. In the chart below, I sorted players worth €5m and above by the month they were born:

View attachment 138317

As you can see, there is a clear correlation between birth month and the success of a footballer. Most notably, 222 players born in January have a market value €5m or greater, whilst only 113 players born in October have a market value €5m or greater. So if you're looking to breed a champion, early April is the time to do it!

Transfer Market is absolutely no authority for valuing players though. Unless I'm missing something here.

I've always seen it as a bit of a joke.
 


AlbionInUs

Active member
Oct 11, 2019
139
US
Transfer Market is absolutely no authority for valuing players though. Unless I'm missing something here.

I've always seen it as a bit of a joke.

It is a valid argument to make that transfermarkt values are not good predictors a players value. Given a large database, the outliers even themselves out. It is extremely unlikely that the people determining market values at transfermarkt are consciously (or unconsciously) giving higher market values to players born in January.

There are other sources that still support this theory, even if you don’t use transfermarkt.
 




Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
25,940
It is a valid argument to make that transfermarkt values are not good predictors a players value. Given a large database, the outliers even themselves out. It is extremely unlikely that the people determining market values at transfermarkt are consciously (or unconsciously) giving higher market values to players born in January.

There are other sources that still support this theory, even if you don’t use transfermarkt.

Okay. I see your wider point now.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,023
shirley the point here is young footballers falsify their birthday for registration to take advantage of the cut off.

i recall that Cricketers a unevenly distributed to summer months.
 




Super Steve Earle

Well-known member
Feb 23, 2009
8,931
North of Brighton
Malcolm Gladwell has written a book called ‘Outliers’ which analyses factors such as this. There’s a lot of successful Athletes who are born in Sept when a school year group starts 1st Sept. ie they are the eldest in the class/ the Beatles played 100s of gigs in Hamburg and honed their skills, playing 2/3 times a day. It’s all about having an advantage and making the most of it.

I was born 2nd September. Tony Geerts, known to many on NSC called me grandad at Patcham Juniors, not a jolly school nickname I enjoyed. Worse still, expectations were higher than for other kids despite me having no more education than the youngest in the year. Yes, still annoys me more than half a century later!
 


Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
In Sweden (were we play calendar year seasons which might have some impact) over two thirds of the players in the youth national teams are born in the first half of the year.
 








BNthree

Plastic JCL
Sep 14, 2016
11,458
WeHo
I was born 2nd September. Tony Geerts, known to many on NSC called me grandad at Patcham Juniors, not a jolly school nickname I enjoyed. Worse still, expectations were higher than for other kids despite me having no more education than the youngest in the year. Yes, still annoys me more than half a century later!

And opposite end of the scale I was born very end of August so was youngest in my year in every school year I was in. Was expected to be achieving the same things as kids up to pretty much a year older than me. If only I was born a few hours later I'd have had a whole year longer before starting school!
 


Bakero

Languidly clinical
Oct 9, 2010
14,906
Almería
As in the UK we go by school year rather than calendar year for youth football age groups it's quite different here isn't it?

This.

"In 2009, professional English youth academies (aged 16-20 years) were grossly over-represented by players with birthdates in a three month period. 57% of youngsters were born in September, November or December whilst only 14% celebrated their birthday in June, July or August."

https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/18891749.amp
 


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