[Politics] Economy Shrinks 20% in April

[Machiavelli]

That's my point. Unemployment was low so we wren't burdened with huge social security cost and could bring in skilled labour from EU at the drop of a hat to help recovery, these people being net contributors to our economy and growing our domestic market for goods and services.. Now unemployment is the highest it's been for ages and will only get higher once furloughing ends and the winter starts. Where are the new jobs going to come from? Who will pay for the training required? Who will pay for the massive social security bill that will drain the life out of our economy?

People won't start spending again and going out until they think it's safe to do so. And they won't think it's safe to do so until they think there's a coherent strategy for dealing with this virus which, in my view, is sorely lacking. So, the much touted V-shaped recovery just isn't going to happen. It won't be an L-shape either, the question is which one it's closer to, and that in no small part depends on some display of competence from on high.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

while Germany has a more healthy economy, there is not so much health across the rest of the continent. most went into recession in Q1. it will be unfortunate for the Germans and few others who will once again prop up the the rest.

Germany had been teetering on the brink of recession before Covid more than any other major EU country and the UK (#despitebrexit). Not sure the German constitutional court will allow them to help prop up the EU any more.

 

[nicko31]

Germany had been teetering on the brink of recession before Covid more than any other major EU country and the UK (#despitebrexit). Not sure the German constitutional court will allow them to help prop up the EU any more.

So who you do think will contract more this year, the UK or Germany?

 

[Machiavelli]

So who you do think will contract more this year, the UK or Germany?

I think the more pertinent question for JCFG is: so which do you think will contract more in 2021, the UK or Germany?
We could even his answer on 1st Jan 2022. At least something will help with the sore head.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

So who you do think will contract more this year, the UK or Germany?

No idea. Going on the last few years I think we will have a similar experience to most other major economies in Europe which will be baffling to those who have been peddling an anti-Uk agenda where we are supposedly the worst at everything.

 

[Machiavelli]

No idea. Going on the last few years I think we will have a similar experience to most other major economies in Europe which will be baffling to those who have been peddling an anti-Uk agenda where we are supposedly the worst at everything.

Jesus Christ, the truth you're bringing is something else

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

A strong EU and a strong UK is beneficial for all of us?

“us” - I was talking from my perspective as I live in the EU.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Germany had been teetering on the brink of recession before Covid more than any other major EU country and the UK (#despitebrexit). Not sure the German constitutional court will allow them to help prop up the EU any more.

Bless. I think we are doing okay, and will continue to do okay.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Jesus Christ, the truth you're bringing is something else

Prediction time then, where will the Uk economy sit compared to most other major European economies in Jan 2022 ... about par, near the bottom or nearer the top? Looking forward to the in 2022.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

A strong EU and a strong UK is beneficial for all of us?

“us” - I was talking from my perspective as I live in the EU.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Bless. I think we are doing okay, and will continue to do okay.

Pretty sure Germany will always do OK but not so sure if their constitutional court will allow them to prop up the Eurozone much longer.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Pretty sure Germany will always do OK but not so sure if their constitutional court will allow them to prop up the Eurozone much longer.

I think if would be financially daft to do so, as there are benefits.

 

[nicko31]

I think the more pertinent question for JCFG is: so which do you think will contract more in 2021, the UK or Germany?
We could even his answer on 1st Jan 2022. At least something will help with the sore head.

I didn’t ask about 2021 that would be just unfair, you can’t expect a country than imposes economic sanctions on itself to out perform one that doesn’t

 

[Bold Seagull]

I didn’t ask about 2021 that would be just unfair, you can’t expect a country than imposes economic sanctions on itself to out perform one that doesn’t

It obviously means that if you believe frictionless trade with our biggest market will aid the UK’s economic recovery - you must hate the UK.

I know, I don’t get the logic either.

 

[stewart_weir]

Radio 4 Today, and presumably other outlets will report this as a record figure, ‘eye watering’ etc. however, while I’m no friend of the government, this seems low given we shut the country down? What were we expecting, just 5 or 10%?

No one went out, no shops open initially for that month, hospitality/travel completely dead, many building sites closed (only to start reopen shortly after as guidance was given).

John Timpson of the Timpson shop chain said that we controlled that shutdown so for the first time in history, we’ve effectively controlled that drop. He made a bit of sense and said it’s not the April/May figures we need to be alarmed about, it will be recovery figures as restrictions ease that will be key indicators.

Personally, given the scale of the shutdown in April, 20% seems expected, maybe even low?

May will also be at least minus 10%. Brexit end of this year and the UK out on its own and not belonging to any trading group next year is going to be very very tough. If a 2nd virus wave also appears in the winter then I expect to see massive unemployment and a return to the UK being known as the poor man of Europe again.

 

[nicko31]

It obviously means that if you believe frictionless trade with our biggest market will aid the UK’s economic recovery - you must hate the UK.

I know, I don’t get the logic either.

Hate the UK, that's the government who seem determined to break it up

 

[Machiavelli]

Prediction time then, where will the Uk economy sit compared to most other major European economies in Jan 2022 ... about par, near the bottom or nearer the top? Looking forward to the in 2022.

In the bottom half of that particular chart. I'll have a bet with you on that too. I'll think of an interesting organisation that you can donate the winnings to nearer the time

 

[Machiavelli]

May will also be at least minus 10%. Brexit end of this year and the UK out on its own and not belonging to any trading group next year is going to be very very tough. If a 2nd virus wave also appears in the winter then I expect to see massive unemployment and a return to the UK being known as the poor man of Europe again.

And this numbskull of a PM has got less than three weeks to call an extension ...

 

[Pavilionaire]

And this numbskull of a PM has got less than three weeks to call an extension ...

Gove alreay told the EU we won't be doing that. We've shut the door.