[Misc] Economic Effect of No Smokers

[Exilegull]

Greater life expectancy no problem I think look at the toxic stuff people eat and drink today people now in their 20s will probably be lucky if they can survive their 60s all the cheese energy drinks pre fabricated food proper poison some of it

 

[MJsGhost]

Yes, that's absolutely fair. I guess the income from tobacco duty is easily quantifiable, and the NHS do state that the cost to them directly is around £2.6bn so they are able to quantify that as well. That was my only argument really - when we can put those numbers on the table, the direct income outweighs the cost . All your points are valid however, as you say it is really complicated (impossible I'd argue) to try and quantify the wider impact as part of an argument.

And as I've said, the income is not a reason to not follow the public health argument. That's the easy bit. Just that when we look at government income through current taxation, this policy will eventually leave a large hole in the budget that will need to be filled. I'm just interested in where that money would come from, and how the argument for public health in this realm doesn't adversely effect the public health elsewhere. I think that question is vital to making public health policy workable, and not feel like a sour medicine.

I've found an official government review on smoking from 2022 (https://assets.publishing.service.g...c159f/khan-review-making-smoking-obsolete.pdf)

Which has this info in it:

Annex F: the cost of tobacco to society ​

Figures on the cost to society have been provided by ASH. ​

The total estimated cost of tobacco to society is £17.0 billion. ​

This is made up of: ​

• costs to NHS of £2.4 billion ​

• costs to social care of £1.2 billion ​

• costs to productivity of £13.2 billion, including: ​

• £6.05 billion on smoking related lost earnings ​

• £5.70 billion on smoking related unemployment ​

• £1.45 billion on smoking related early deaths ​

• costs of smoking related fires of £0.3 billion​

​

That certainly helps put some figures on it, which I am sure are open to challenge / reinterpretation, but useful as a ballpark.

Whatever the true figures are, there would be a lag between people stopping smoking (and therefore tobacco tax receipts reducing to zero) and the significant reduction in cost of treating smoking-related illnesses, so there would be a hole of some sort to plug for a while.

There would be an immediate boost to other sectors though, as in theory there would be about £25bn* that is currently spent on tobacco, immediately available to be spent on other things, which would presumably be taxable, though not at such a high rate due to the punitive duty.


*that figure comes from a very quick search https://www.statista.com/statistics/289980/expenditure-on-tobacco-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

 

[Beanstalk]

Greater life expectancy no problem I think look at the toxic stuff people eat and drink today people now in their 20s will probably be lucky if they can survive their 60s all the cheese energy drinks pre fabricated food proper poison some of it

Can you point me in the direction of this "cheese energy drink"?

Asking for a friend of course.

 

[dejavuatbtn]

Pension retirement age will go back and back as people live longer

Until they’re smokin’!

 

[dejavuatbtn]

Volume of office gossip will reduce faster than the tax take

Yep, nobody will have a clue what’s going on!

 

[Coldeanseagull]

Ex smoker here, I don't think people should be persecuted if they are snoutcasts. If there is less of them, there is less chance of running into some one with a freshly opened Old Holburn or Golden Virginia.....the smell of some ones pouch is heavenly....

 

[schmunk]

Can you point me in the direction of this "cheese energy drink"?

Asking for a friend of course.

Camembau...?

Munster Energy...?

 

[Trevor]

I've found an official government review on smoking from 2022 (https://assets.publishing.service.g...c159f/khan-review-making-smoking-obsolete.pdf)

Which has this info in it:

Annex F: the cost of tobacco to society ​

Figures on the cost to society have been provided by ASH. ​

The total estimated cost of tobacco to society is £17.0 billion. ​

This is made up of: ​

• costs to NHS of £2.4 billion ​

• costs to social care of £1.2 billion ​

• costs to productivity of £13.2 billion, including: ​

• £6.05 billion on smoking related lost earnings ​

• £5.70 billion on smoking related unemployment ​

• £1.45 billion on smoking related early deaths ​

• costs of smoking related fires of £0.3 billion​

​

That certainly helps put some figures on it, which I am sure are open to challenge / reinterpretation, but useful as a ballpark.

Whatever the true figures are, there would be a lag between people stopping smoking (and therefore tobacco tax receipts reducing to zero) and the significant reduction in cost of treating smoking-related illnesses, so there would be a hole of some sort to plug for a while.

There would be an immediate boost to other sectors though, as in theory there would be about £25bn* that is currently spent on tobacco, immediately available to be spent on other things, which would presumably be taxable, though not at such a high rate due to the punitive duty.


*that figure comes from a very quick search https://www.statista.com/statistics/289980/expenditure-on-tobacco-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Really good work - Thank you

 

[raymondo]

Volume of office gossip will reduce faster than the tax take

Reminds me of the dedicated smoking room in our offices back in the 90s. Our smokers were the best informed employees... given that the HR director was a heavy smoker.