Driverless cars set to roll out for trials on UK roads

[Gwylan]

Think you may have misread my post - that was exactly my point. Driverless cars as a lease-only thing will have much slower take-up than driverless cars with private ownership. If the only business model is lease, then there will be slow takeup, IMHO. At the moment most people are very much used to cars as a personal, private space. I also think there will be supply & demand problems (certainly outside of large urban areas) - people will have to adjust to paying different prices for different times of day (just look at the fuss that there's been over Uber's differential pricing model for an example of 'luddite' reaction).

I agree with you that long term it's a more efficient business model - I just think it's going to take a long time to get everyone thinking in the same way.

Sorry if I misunderstand. Yes, that's exactly the point I was making that the business model will take a lot of time working and there will be changes to society too - for example, managing rush hour prices will be controlled by different prices, as you point out, this will be a lot easier.

But the advantages are huge: fewer delays, fewer accidents, more disposal income, more relaxed travelling and so on. The far bigger problem is what to do with the unemployment of taxi, lorry and van drivers - that would be a massive upheaval.

 

[AmexRuislip]

There is already driver less cars bombing about here in Ruislip.
That is what it seems like, but the real reason is all the old cruds that drive and cannot see over the wheel
Its good fun to watch really, especially on Saturdays around the Waitrose car park, or it commonly known as Sanatogen day.

 

[Badger]

You can never tell

But you do raise an interesting point: in a world where no-one owns a car, how do companies market them? What's the difference between calling up a car from Acme Motors and Fly-by-Night Inc? That will be one of the biggest problems facing manufacturers: I'm not sure how it will play out

It will all be about the "car environment", what can the manufacturers offer to keep the passengers entertained and comfortable. The in-car entertainment market will be huge.

 

[Triggaaar]

Would be a nice piece of kit to have.

 

[Biscuit]

As I pointed out earlier, people are completely barking up the wrong tree here. Individuals won't own driverless cars - that's not the point. The lead in this area is Google, a company that's all about delivering services, not products. You log on to Gmail, you don't have a mail server sitting in the corner of the room.

And as I said earlier, this isn't necessarily about the technology, this will be about insurance, about mixed use - as Mejona points out, there will be confusion with driven cars and driverless ones on the road. My feeling is that the tax on driven cars will rise and rise until owning one will be hellishly expensive and 99% of the vehicles on the road will be driverless.

There has been plenty written about driverless cars but none of the thinking is about mass ownership. There are too many Luddites on here, the future will look very different

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/28/5758560/driverless-cars-will-mean-the-end-of-car-ownership

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/01/google-self-driving-pods-end-of-road-car-ownership

You did realise I was being facetious, right? Luddite yourself!

 

[father_and_son]

As I pointed out earlier, people are completely barking up the wrong tree here. Individuals won't own driverless cars - that's not the point. The lead in this area is Google, a company that's all about delivering services, not products. You log on to Gmail, you don't have a mail server sitting in the corner of the room.

And as I said earlier, this isn't necessarily about the technology, this will be about insurance, about mixed use - as Mejona points out, there will be confusion with driven cars and driverless ones on the road. My feeling is that the tax on driven cars will rise and rise until owning one will be hellishly expensive and 99% of the vehicles on the road will be driverless.

There has been plenty written about driverless cars but none of the thinking is about mass ownership. There are too many Luddites on here, the future will look very different

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/28/5758560/driverless-cars-will-mean-the-end-of-car-ownership

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/01/google-self-driving-pods-end-of-road-car-ownership

Driverless cars as you describe are feasible only in this utopia of urban commute where everyone is close to an unused pod and has a fast internet connection.

Unfortunately, out in the real world, life isn't the same as it is on Google Campus and some people live in remote places, drive to remoter places and heaven forbid, don't have an internet signal sometimes.

Get past this utopian view of the world and into the practicalities and mass-ownership doesn't work and the practical application of the ideal will be much closer to the reality of today.

Driverless cars will mean crash protection, automatically maintaining the distance with the car in front/behind/alongside, instantly reacting to non-vehicular obstacles (and reporting the hazard to the car behind so that it reacts too). It will mean lane management, route optimisation and military grade GPS positioning. It may morph into pay-by-mile and negate the need for Motor Insurance (but explode the Product Warranty business). Black Box insurance is already creating a price divide between good and bad drivers. If one company offers discounts to good drivers and removes them from the general market, then the average ability of the remaining drivers falls. Insurance costs increase for everyone else because they are, on average, worse drivers than when everyone was lumped together. Driverless cars will be the very best drivers and so the costs for those that don't adopt/adapt will inevitably increase.

But, as previously stated, I have worked in this general area and I can tell you that there are some very basic issues that need to be resolved before we even get close to the compromise position, never mind the utopian dream.

For instance... there is no official database of roads and speed limits in the UK. There are a few satnav/mapping companies that will sell you their data, but these are at best 80-90% accurate (more so for the map itself, but speed limit data is pretty poor).

In cities, especially London, GPS becomes dangerously inaccurate because of "canyoning" - large buildings bouncing the signals meaning that accuracy of location becomes crude (to levels required for this sort of application).

Mobile phone coverage is still a long way from 100%. The big telecoms may cover 98% of the population, but there are still large black spots in unpopulated (or sparsely populated) areas with no reception.


As with all "concept" designs, you start with a model of a spherical object in a vacuum, but real world considerations mean the model becomes compromised, de-scoped and finally looks nothing like the concept.

Maybe on Google Campus, you can call up a communally owned, control-less vehicle, using your always connected smart-phone (that never runs out of power) and summon a ride... but in the real world, the real solution is we will all own cars its just that they will have the discipline, reactions and 360 degree vision to drive better than we can and allow you to spend the journey time spending money with the personalised advertisers who Google have sold your data to.


This isn't being a Luddite btw. This is being practical, realistic and honest about what is concept and what can be put into production.

 

[Steve in Japan]

Logically this could be the technology that finally kills off Top Gear. No more shouts of POWER, no more drifting etc etc.

 

[brighton_girl87]

I'd be well up for this - I do occasionally wish I had a car but I just can't be bothered to learn how to drive.

 

[Gwylan]

Driverless cars as you describe are feasible only in this utopia of urban commute where everyone is close to an unused pod and has a fast internet connection.

Unfortunately, out in the real world, life isn't the same as it is on Google Campus and some people live in remote places, drive to remoter places and heaven forbid, don't have an internet signal sometimes.

You do know that, as of last summer, Google has tested driverless cars on 700,000 km of public road - much of it rural (and in the US, a country with less mobile penetration than we have). No-one pretends that's near complete - Google says five years before they're fully functional, as I said earlier, my guess is 10. By then, tests will have been over millions, billions of kilometres in different countries, under different conditions (snow and ice will be tricky).

Driverless cars will be the very best drivers and so the costs for those that don't adopt/adapt will inevitably increase.

Well yes, and in the long run, will not be taken out by the driver

For instance... there is no official database of roads and speed limits in the UK. There are a few satnav/mapping companies that will sell you their data, but these are at best 80-90% accurate (more so for the map itself, but speed limit data is pretty poor).

Yes, this is one of the practical difficulties that needs to be resolved - which is why I said it was not just a question of getting the technology right, there are lots of other issues that need to be tackled.

In cities, especially London, GPS becomes dangerously inaccurate because of "canyoning" - large buildings bouncing the signals meaning that accuracy of location becomes crude (to levels required for this sort of application).

Tell me about it: a couple of weeks ago in London, we were twice were driven round in circles by a minicab driver who couldn't find where we wanted to go to by satnav. This will be fixed: remember, we're in the early stages of the technology still

Mobile phone coverage is still a long way from 100%. The big telecoms may cover 98% of the population, but there are still large black spots in unpopulated (or sparsely populated) areas with no reception.

Again, this is an easy fix. Just look how far we've come in just 30 years, In 20 years time, we'll be on 7G (or even 8G) at speeds and coverage we can only dream of.

Maybe on Google Campus, you can call up a communally owned, control-less vehicle, using your always connected smart-phone (that never runs out of power) and summon a ride... but in the real world, the real solution is we will all own cars its just that they will have the discipline, reactions and 360 degree vision to drive better than we can and allow you to spend the journey time spending money with the personalised advertisers who Google have sold your data to.

We're already seeing cities move away from private cars: we see more and more restrictions put in place and I'm sure we'll see more. There will be attempts by governments to modify our behaviour - imagine if a government introduced a tax of £1000 a month to run a private car, while centrally-owned driverless cars were free. Do you think that the majority of drivers would still opt for private cars?
I don't have a crystal ball but, regardless of the technology, all governments are trying to reduce the amount of cars on the road. Driverless cars will offer a fantastic opportunity to reduce ownership, reduce accidents, make better use of road space and cut pollution. Governments will love it: you can be certain there'll be some concessions.

his isn't being a Luddite btw. This is being practical, realistic and honest about what is concept and what can be put into production.

I don't disagree that we're a long way off this being a practical reality but that will change in time.

If someone came to you in 1994 and said "I have a great idea for a new service that will replace taxis. I'm going to call it Uber and it works by dialling private drivers on your phone." What would you say? "That would never work because the technology's not there" or "Smart idea, I can see the long-term potential"?

You have to move away from restrictions of present-day technology.At the moment, in motoring terms, we're Karl Benz pottering around with petrol and spark plugs -there's a long way to go yet.

 

[brightn'ove]

Logically this could be the technology that finally kills off Top Gear. No more shouts of POWER, no more drifting etc etc.

Old age will kill it off first...

 

[Norman Baker suck my lozenge]

How would driverless cars cope with Bennets field on 85 minutes?

 

[father_and_son]

If someone came to you in 1994 and said "I have a great idea for a new service that will replace taxis. I'm going to call it Uber and it works by dialling private drivers on your phone." What would you say? "That would never work because the technology's not there" or "Smart idea, I can see the long-term potential"?

In '94 I had a couple of friendly taxi drivers who I could call directly and although I didn't call it Uber, I was doing this!

 

[Ginny]

I reckon' 10 years plus before we see it in full swing.
I'd buy one though.

I agree, its not happening any sooner then 10 years...

 

[Perfidious Albion]

Fascinating concept but I can see an awful lot of difficulties . Firstly, the human relationship that people have with their cars, they love being in control, being independant & not told exactly how it will drive. Will they not miss having a car in the drive when they just want to nip out to bring home a curry?

It would take a lot to make us trust them. Yes, planes are largely directed by computers but at least you do have a pilot - just in case !

NB if delivery lorries were running about on their own, who is responsible for the goods on board? I have unloaded a few deliveries in my time and the driver made sure that we only received what was due to us.
I guess that nothing is insurmountable but I believe it will take longer than my remaining years of driving expectancy to usher in this "Brave New World"

 

[Badger]

Firstly, the human relationship that people have with their cars, they love being in control, being independant & not told exactly how it will drive. Will they not miss having a car in the drive when they just want to nip out to bring home a curry?

This is the issue for me, I enjoy having a car and I enjoy driving it the majority of the time. There are times when I do wish I didn't have to drive and someone could do it for me but that's not very often. I also don't even like having a SatNav telling me what to do, let alone the car doing the whole thing for me.

 

[fruitnveg]

You probably will as the driverless car will stick religiously to the speed limit, and you probably wont....

I meant it more as a; "I enjoy driving and really, really hate being driven," kind of way.

 

[Ginny]

This is the issue for me, I enjoy having a car and I enjoy driving it the majority of the time. There are times when I do wish I didn't have to drive and someone could do it for me but that's not very often. I also don't even like having a SatNav telling me what to do, let alone the car doing the whole thing for me.

Its not just for you a lot of people like or love to drive, to be in control.... it will be an unwanted transition if this is implemented and they have to switch from manual to auto....

 

[Gwylan]

There's an article in this week's New Scientist about driverless cars.

Interestingly, the article thinks the only really tricky problem is human interaction ie how do driverless cars react with driven ones given the amount of communication that goes on between drivers (hand signals, eye contact etc). The article does go on to say that this problem would go away if ALL the cars were driverless - which is precisely what I think will happen

 

[Nibble]

No thanks. Another way for the government to control our lives.

 

[Diego Napier]

No thanks. Another way for the government to control our lives.

If it stopped the 1,713 deaths on UK roads last year and the 21,657 serious injuries, wouldn't it be a worthwhile trade-off?