Does your vote really count?

[symyjym]

No matter what the turnout to vote is the percentage will always be the same.

If we give a thousand monkeys the choice of a banana, an apple or an orange to discover what monkeys preferred, the percentage result will be the same as just using one hundred monkeys or a million monkeys.

If it’s a choice between just a banana or an orange the results will probably be about 50 50 no matter what the turnout was. Brexit was so close it could have also been decided by monkeys choosing a preference between bananas and oranges. If monkey had a choice of banana or a potato there would be a clear winner. 48% to 52% though is just a flip of a coin and is meaningless.

If all the apathetic people chose to vote, the results would still be the same as if they didn’t, so it’s better to join the apathetic party rather than play the monkey.

 

[Stat Brother]

 

[symyjym]

View attachment 84478

It was different back then the monkeys choice really was an orange or a potato. Today is about the preference between a banana, orange and apple. What is your's or the monkeys favourite?

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

It was different back then the monkeys choice really was an orange or a potato. Today is about the preference between a banana, orange and apple. What is your favourite?

Can I have the apple baked with cinnamon and sultanas?

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Voting is about a lot more than making a decision.

It's all about taking responsibility. Or getting the blame.

 

[symyjym]

Can I have the apple baked with cinnamon and sultanas?

Exactly my point.

 

[BensGrandad]

Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.

 

[SK1NT]

Lib Dems... Now the facts are becoming clearer regarding brexit. Only way to get a 2nd referendum and try and revert this ****ing madness

 

[symyjym]

Voting is about a lot more than making a decision.

It's all about taking responsibility. Or getting the blame.

Our current democracy gives us the illusion of taking responsibility. The wave we are on is the wave we are on no matter who is on the front of the surfboard.

Do all the Blair voters feel any blame about him taking us to an illegal war, did all the Cameron voters feel blame for turning Libya into an ISIS hotbed and then moved onto his regime change in Syria disaster. These people leave a trail of destruction behind them and there is no guilt or blame left with the people who voted them in any more than they feel guilt or blame themselves.

 

[pasty]

Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.

Good grief. If we all felt that way we'd be in a right old mess. You may as well say Brighton are never going to win the Premier League so it is a waste of time getting promoted to it.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

No matter what the turnout to vote is the percentage will always be the same.

If we give a thousand monkeys the choice of a banana, an apple or an orange to discover what monkeys preferred, the percentage result will be the same as just using one hundred monkeys or a million monkeys.

If it’s a choice between just a banana or an orange the results will probably be about 50 50 no matter what the turnout was. Brexit was so close it could have also been decided by monkeys choosing a preference between bananas and oranges. If monkey had a choice of banana or a potato there would be a clear winner. 48% to 52% though is just a flip of a coin and is meaningless.

If all the apathetic people chose to vote, the results would still be the same as if they didn’t, so it’s better to join the apathetic party rather than play the monkey.

The Brexit / monkeys analogy is seriously flawed. The Brexit choice was in fact, more Banana / Potato, than Banana / Orange. Unfortunately a shitload of easily-led monkeys were prepared to believe that raw potatoes, were really tasty.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Our current democracy gives us the illusion of taking responsibility. The wave we are on is the wave we are on no matter who is on the front of the surfboard.

Do all the Blair voters feel any blame about him taking us to an illegal war, did all the Cameron voters feel blame for turning Libya into an ISIS hotbed and then moved onto his regime change in Syria disaster. These people leave a trail of destruction behind them and there is no guilt or blame left with the people who voted them in any more than they feel guilt or blame themselves.

I feel guilty for voting for Blair in 1997 - although I obviously voted for my local candidate than Blair himself.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

The Brexit / monkeys analogy is seriously flawed. The Brexit choice was in fact, more Banana / Potato, than Banana / Orange. Unfortunately a shitload of easily-led monkeys were prepared to believe that raw potatoes, were really tasty.

Maybe they saw that the banana was black, bruised and past it's sell by date and that potatoes can be so versatile when cooked that the future could be bright ?

 

[Triggaaar]

Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.

By success, I assume you mean a party with a chance of getting that one seat?

I of course understand your point, you might vote tactically to choose between the lesser of two evils in your area. But the number of votes for whomever comes third (and fourth etc) are counted and added to records, which helps get a sense of how the country feels and leads to change.

 

[Audax]

No matter what the turnout to vote is the percentage will always be the same.

If we give a thousand monkeys the choice of a banana, an apple or an orange to discover what monkeys preferred, the percentage result will be the same as just using one hundred monkeys or a million monkeys.

If it’s a choice between just a banana or an orange the results will probably be about 50 50 no matter what the turnout was. Brexit was so close it could have also been decided by monkeys choosing a preference between bananas and oranges. If monkey had a choice of banana or a potato there would be a clear winner. 48% to 52% though is just a flip of a coin and is meaningless.

If all the apathetic people chose to vote, the results would still be the same as if they didn’t, so it’s better to join the apathetic party rather than play the monkey.

Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.

These are both flawed arguments.

[MENTION=14905]symyjym[/MENTION] - in your case, the flaw is in assuming that the people who don't vote feel the same way (in the same proportions) as those who do. That's unlikely to be the case - especially as the demographics of those who vote, vs those who don't, are often quite different. For example, the younger you are the more likely you are to back Remain. But the younger you are, the less likely you are to actually go out and vote. Hence, a young voter who elected not to vote in the referendum was more likely to be inclined towards Remain than the national average. So if younger voters had turned out in the same proportional numbers as older voters, it's plausible that Remain would have won the referendum instead.

More on point for the election ahead: Even voters in super-safe Tory seats can still make their anti-Tory voice heard by voting. Firstly, any vote that isn't a Tory vote will be reported in the national numbers. The more non-Tory votes, the better (if you are anti hard brexit). Secondly, any surge in proportional votes for second-placed anti-Brexit candidates will also be reported. Looking at where I live, in 2010 the Lib Dems polled 25.3%. In 2015 they polled 9.1%, with most of their losses being picked up by Ukip. While there's no hope of ousting the Tory MP, if the Lib Dems can get back up towards that 25% figure, and push the Ukip vote back down again, then that sort of shift will get noticed and may help moderate the Tory hardline on Brexit. Having said that, I don't expect the LDs to put any effort into Wealden. They're better off using their resources to attack seats they might actually win.

[MENTION=451]BensGrandad[/MENTION] - see above. Given Labour have been so wishy-washy on Brexit, any surge in votes for the LDs will get noticed. Doesn't matter whether they win seats, or come second, or come third. Any significant proportional increase in their vote share will be seen as being an anti-Brexit protest vote, and it will get noticed. Obviously voting for a candidate that actually stands a chance of winning is a more *valuable* vote, but no vote is ever actually wasted unless it doesn't get cast in the first place.

Likewise up in Scotland - if the SNP regional vote share dips significantly that will be seen as a protest against IndyRef2. Even if they only lost 1 or 2 seats, that dip in overall share would be seen as significant.


(For full disclosure, I grew up in Australia where voting is compulsory and a preferences system is used. I first moved to the UK in 2005, but didn't actually vote in an Election until 2015. But that was because I didn't understand UK politics, and didn't want to understand UK politics, until after the 2010 election. I value my vote and these days I will use it. Even though in Wealden I know my vote won't affect the overall result, I do know that it will still be recorded and have an effect, however small, on the interpretation of the overall results).

 

[symyjym]

The Brexit / monkeys analogy is seriously flawed. The Brexit choice was in fact, more Banana / Potato, than Banana / Orange. Unfortunately a shitload of easily-led monkeys were prepared to believe that raw potatoes, were really tasty.

When Cameron used the threat of WWIII with the Russians if we left Brexit it became a choice of 2 potatoes. If a potato and a potato are the choices the monkey would naturally pick the potato option and still be grateful.

 

[Hotchilidog]

View attachment 84478

Basically this. If you want something to change, vote. You may or may not get what you want but you will not have left things the same.

When a third of the voters render themselves unimportant to those seeking election they will be ignored.

 

[The Clamp]

Lib Dem all the way this time I'm afraid. As much as it pains me they are the only chance we have of reversing Brexit and getting back to normal. And that is a pretty ****ing slim/non-existent chance.

 

[BBassic]

Your vote only counts if it is cast for a party with some chance of success otherwise it is a complete waste.

I understand your point here but I disagree with it fundamentally.

My vote counts just as much as anyone else's. That it is usually cast for a party with a slim to none chance of getting into Government doesn't make it a waste. It makes it my choice, reflective of my beliefs.

The only wasted votes are the ones not cast at all however that, again, is a personal choice made by people who have the right to vote, or not, as they see fit.

 

[symyjym]

These are both flawed arguments.

[MENTION=14905]symyjym[/MENTION] - in your case, the flaw is in assuming that the people who don't vote feel the same way (in the same proportions) as those who do. That's unlikely to be the case - especially as the demographics of those who vote, vs those who don't, are often quite different. For example, the younger you are the more likely you are to back Remain. But the younger you are, the less likely you are to actually go out and vote. Hence, a young voter who elected not to vote in the referendum was more likely to be inclined towards Remain than the national average. So if younger voters had turned out in the same proportional numbers as older voters, it's plausible that Remain would have won the referendum instead.

More on point for the election ahead: Even voters in super-safe Tory seats can still make their anti-Tory voice heard by voting. Firstly, any vote that isn't a Tory vote will be reported in the national numbers. The more non-Tory votes, the better (if you are anti hard brexit). Secondly, any surge in proportional votes for second-placed anti-Brexit candidates will also be reported. Looking at where I live, in 2010 the Lib Dems polled 25.3%. In 2015 they polled 9.1%, with most of their losses being picked up by Ukip. While there's no hope of ousting the Tory MP, if the Lib Dems can get back up towards that 25% figure, and push the Ukip vote back down again, then that sort of shift will get noticed and may help moderate the Tory hardline on Brexit. Having said that, I don't expect the LDs to put any effort into Wealden. They're better off using their resources to attack seats they might actually win.

I would say that your rebuttal is flawed because all the demographics are covered anyway apart from the apathetic ones of all ages and genders. Then you have to believe that there is any difference between a hard or soft Brexit and if it even really matters at all because it will be the same but different.