Do you think the JOCKS will vote YES ?

[London Irish]

I've seen a number of people who reckon the No vote will get to about 1/10 come polling day and there were a fair few of the timeform crowd were lumping on at 1.38 on Betfair.

The media might be portrating this as too close to call but the market has as good as made it's mind up. It's No all the way.

I'm not a betting man but I'd love to know what that certainty is based on. The psephologists are currently having huge arguments about these polls - particularly the variations in the don't knows. This vote is an unprecedented situation (some say Quebec but lots of different factors there).

 

[8ace]

The YES campaign isn't totally about the SNP , Salmond and nationalism , there are YES voters from all the Scottish political parties and other groups involved too. People have the choice to vote for independence or stay as part of the UK. If Better Together win it will be a democratic decision by the people likewise if YES get the majority of votes.

Celtic fans will all vote yes as they want to see the break-up of the UK.

 

[piersa]

Celtic fans will all vote yes as they want to see the break-up of the UK.

Rangers fans will vote No.

 

[BensGrandad]

Celtic fans will all vote yes as they want to see the break-up of the UK.

Why as that would give them no chance of getting into The Premier not that they have much chance now, but a Yes would give them even less chance.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

I'm not a betting man but I'd love to know what that certainty is based on. The psephologists are currently having huge arguments about these polls - particularly the variations in the don't knows. This vote is an unprecedented situation (some say Quebec but lots of different factors there).

I read an article the other day. On Betfair, 4 of the 5 million has been matched on the No. Most of the other 1 million is the patriotic pound from Scottish punters in small stakes. 75% of bets over 2K have been on No with up to 22K staked in one go.

In Politics the prices are normally spot on.

 

[London Irish]

Rangers fans will vote No.

Ahem...http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/old-firm-united-both-celtic-3598872

Snapshot suggests that 48 per cent of Celtic fans will vote Yes, compared with 40 per cent planning to vote No. The rest are apparently undecided.

Among Rangers fans, support for independence was placed at 45 per cent – with 41 per cent likely to vote No.

But supporters of Scottish Cup winners St Johnstone are the most ardent Unionists, with 94 per cent set to vote No.

 

[8ace]

Why as that would give them no chance of getting into The Premier not that they have much chance now, but a Yes would give them even less chance.

They are more interested in a United Ireland than the BPL.

 

[London Irish]

I read an article the other day. On Betfair, 4 of the 5 million has been matched on the No. Most of the other 1 million is the patriotic pound from Scottish punters in small stakes. 75% of bets over 2K have been on No with up to 22K staked in one go.

In Politics the prices are normally spot on.

Fair enough - I can see why politics betting markets work well because you have lots of history and past trends to base scientific judgements on. But this indyref is pretty much a unique situation - potential for upset much higher I'd say, new kinds of voters, turnout variation etc

 

[Simster]

Ahem...http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/old-firm-united-both-celtic-3598872

Snapshot suggests that 48 per cent of Celtic fans will vote Yes, compared with 40 per cent planning to vote No. The rest are apparently undecided.

Among Rangers fans, support for independence was placed at 45 per cent – with 41 per cent likely to vote No.

But supporters of Scottish Cup winners St Johnstone are the most ardent Unionists, with 94 per cent set to vote No.

Interesting, especially the St Johnstone bit. But St Johnstone are a Perth club, the city neighbouring arch-rival Dundee, which happens to be a staunch YES city. So perhaps that partly explains it?

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Fair enough - I can see why politics betting markets work well because you have lots of history and past trends to base scientific judgements on. But this indyref is pretty much a unique situation - potential for upset much higher I'd say, new kinds of voters, turnout variation etc

Don't get me wrong I'm not touching it at those prices. I think the golden rule with political betting is to concentrate on polls as close to the polling date as possible and they seem too closely matched to me to start waving around monthly mortgage payment type bets (which if your backing No, is the only type of bet worth having). There are, however, some very intelligent, stat based people who have deemed it worthy of huge bets. On that basis, I'd be very surprised if its anything other than a No vote - They put it as an 85% chance.

 

[8ace]

I read an article the other day. On Betfair, 4 of the 5 million has been matched on the No. Most of the other 1 million is the patriotic pound from Scottish punters in small stakes. 75% of bets over 2K have been on No with up to 22K staked in one go.

In Politics the prices are normally spot on.

I know of someone who's done quite well trading the YES position recently.

 

[piersa]

Ahem...http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/old-firm-united-both-celtic-3598872

Snapshot suggests that 48 per cent of Celtic fans will vote Yes, compared with 40 per cent planning to vote No. The rest are apparently undecided.

Among Rangers fans, support for independence was placed at 45 per cent – with 41 per cent likely to vote No.

But supporters of Scottish Cup winners St Johnstone are the most ardent Unionists, with 94 per cent set to vote No.

130 people surveyed is hardly comprehensive!

 

[KingKev]

No by at least 4%, probably more. Then we're into the difficulty of persuading the English that all is full and fair when we have Celtic MPs voting on English matters and no English say in the affairs of their smaller partners. Hmmmm. Would be cleaner and easier if the vote were Yes...

 

[The Spanish]

Well that's a surprise!(you living in Glasgow) All my family and Scottish friends often express their anger at the 80's Tory experiment and the fact the Labour party ceased to be Socialist therefore failed to reverse Thatcherism. Can't believe you have not heard that. So little choice but to break away if they are to build a nation relevant to Scottish tradition. They have had enough of the right wing politic that has dominated this nation since 1979.

The whole of the uk was affected by deindustrialisation it's just Liverpool Manchester Newcastle etc didn't make it an ethnic issue.

Of course I am aware, I look at an empty Clyde riverside every day, I know the arguments well enough and sympathise, but it's nationalism at the end of the day. That's a fact.

 

[The Spanish]

The fact we end up discussing how this will affect betting or stock markets, is exactly what winds the jocks up.

 

[A mex eyecan]

The fact we end up discussing how this will affect betting or stock markets, is exactly what winds the jocks up.

I can think of a few more wind up points as well.
maybe the first could be in the event of a no vote that we English start to raise our voices a little bit and we could demand a referendum on if we would like to Allow them to stay part of the UK, after all what makes them think we all think we do?
2nd could be the English parliament banning Scottish MPs the right to vote on matters Westminster if English MPs can't vote on matters Holyrood.
I'm not saying I think either the above is right or even possible, just trying to light a little blue touch paper.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I'm not a betting man but I'd love to know what that certainty is based on. The psephologists are currently having huge arguments about these polls - particularly the variations in the don't knows. This vote is an unprecedented situation (some say Quebec but lots of different factors there).

The difficulty with the don't knows is that a proportion of them have already made their mind up one way or another but want to keep their choice a secret. In the 1992 General Election all the pundits thought Labour would win with only a day to go but on the day itself enough voters changed their mind and voted Conservative instead. This referendum is too close to call.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I think the last word has to go to Groundskeeper Willie

 

[yxee]

maybe the first could be in the event of a no vote that we English start to raise our voices a little bit and we could demand a referendum on if we would like to Allow them to stay part of the UK, after all what makes them think we all think we do?

this would be brilliant

 

[Blackadder]

maybe the first could be in the event of a no vote that we English start to raise our voices a little bit and we could demand a referendum on if we would like to Allow them to stay part of the UK, after all what makes them think we all think we do?

Whilst the vote is currently 50/50 ish regarding independence, I guarantee that the amount of Scots up in arms about such a vote would be FAR more than 50%.