[Albion] Difficulty of run-in

[DavidRyder]

Stats schmats - football is played on grass, not charts (he says, trying to convince himself)

 

[Tricky Dicky]

Stats schmats - football is played on grass, not charts (he says, trying to convince himself)

Indeed. Even in normal times, on the day anyone can beat anyone else - and this season it seems even more so. Looks like it'll go to the wire and anyone placing bets needs their head examined.

 

[TSB]

Completely skewed by having Manchester City, who have a ****ton of points, still to play.

Take that game out and we'd be lower mid-table.

 

[Scoffers]

Stats are stats, they can tell you certain information that can be seen as a pointer to the future

All the teams in the bottom 10 have the ability to beat the other teams, and as we've seen, even beat those in the top 6. The reality is it looks like going to the final day and the clubs that survive will be the ones that take their chances and handle the pressure better.

 

[perseus]

Someone stole the wheels off your car?

Looks like the wheels are still on! Maybe they will loose?

 

[djentist]

Run in now looks even more daunting, with the rearranged Man City away match likely to be one of our final five fixtures. Hoping that they sandwich it between Man United (H) and Liverpool (A), where at Anfield we are unlikely to get a result anyway, and the fatigue from playing another match will be coming at a more appropriate time. Would hate for our players to be knackered going into Burnley, knowing it's our best shot at any more points

 

[Weststander]

Easiest to most difficult, ordered by the average current points of the sides to be faced...

1 Leicester City 31.364
2 Liverpool 31.833
3 Burnley 32.182
4 Tottenham Hotspur 33.364
5 Everton 34.000
6 Bournemouth 34.083
7 Arsenal 35.182
8 Swansea City 36.000
9 Manchester City 36.091
10 Manchester United 36.333
11 Watford 36.455
12 Crystal Palace 36.545
13 Huddersfield Town 36.750
14 West Bromwich Albion 37.000
15 Chelsea 37.167
16 Newcastle United 37.833
17 Southampton 38.417
18 Stoke City 39.545
19 West Ham United 41.545
20 Brighton & Hove Albion 41.727

We only have 3 fixtures left out of 20 against the other clubs within the bottom 11.

Hudd look equally in the mire in terms of their run in.

Yet the NSC part of the fanbase appear very relaxed about all this, confident even and the betting markets don't have us going down.

Is the confidence across the NSC blind faith or is it rational?

 

[Bob'n'weave]

We only have 3 fixtures left out of 20 against the other clubs within the bottom 11.

Hudd look equally in the mire in terms of their run in.

Yet the NSC part of the fanbase appear very relaxed about all this, confident even and the betting markets don't have us going down.

Is the confidence across the NSC blind faith or is it rational?

For me its a bit of both. That, and the fact that there are other teams, near and below us, in decline, while we are in the ascendency. Unless we get the business done against Swansea and some points agains the bigguns it's going to be tight as ****. Confident we can do it,

 

[Weststander]

For me its a bit of both. That, and the fact that there are other teams, near and below us, in decline, while we are in the ascendency. Unless we get the business done against Swansea and some points agains the bigguns it's going to be tight as ****. Confident we can do it,

IF we lost to Swansea, what do reckon - likely staying up or on being relegated?

 

[Jim in the West]

Run in now looks even more daunting, with the rearranged Man City away match likely to be one of our final five fixtures. Hoping that they sandwich it between Man United (H) and Liverpool (A), where at Anfield we are unlikely to get a result anyway, and the fatigue from playing another match will be coming at a more appropriate time. Would hate for our players to be knackered going into Burnley, knowing it's our best shot at any more points

At least we have the game (v Man United)....I see West Ham look like they don’t play between 10th and 31st March. Nice three week “warm weather training” break...?

 

[Bob'n'weave]

IF we lost to Swansea, what do reckon - likely staying up or on being relegated?

Still think we will survive. Compared to other relegation candidates I think we can do it.

 

[Winker]

Totally unscientific I know, but I think the relegation candidates will be amongst the one or two man-teams with dodgy managers:

West Brom - Evans/Rondon - Pardew
Stoke - Shakiri/Shawcross - Lambert
Palace - Zaha/...errrr - Hodgson
Swansea - Abraham/Ayew - Massive
Southampton - errr that injured bloke/and errr him - Pellegrino

We don't have any stand-out players but we have a strong squad with an astute manager. With the arrival of Ulloa and Locardia I can see the end of the season being stronger than the beginning, even with the harder run-in.

 

[Triggaaar]

West Brom will be relegated and are going to gift points to our rivals. I don't like it.

 

[eastterracemike]

At least we have the game (v Man United)....I see West Ham look like they don’t play between 10th and 31st March. Nice three week “warm weather training” break...?

Taxi for Jim?

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Wrong thread. Doh.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

West Brom will be relegated and are going to gift points to our rivals. I don't like it.

That's why it is vital they stay in the mix by beating Huddersfield on Saturday.

 

[lancyclaret]

According to the difficulty of that table, neither Huddersfield or Newcastle should have won today but they did. I think in the last third of the season, the form book goes out of the window.

Agree entirely with the above...and I think most Brighton fans might be surprised how much Swansea have improved under CC since you beat them at The Liberty...Dyche certainly was in our last game. He said the Swans were "a side transformed" from the one that meekly surrendered 2-0 at Turf Moor in October under PC. Dyche was amazed by Swansea's much-improved pressing and energy plus team spirit.

First goal wins it at The Amex - probably be a 0-0 draw.

Back to the original post, it does not matter WHO the future opponents are but WHEN you play them. For a perfect example of this, check Leicester's "Great Escape" in 2014/15. They were rock bottom - not too unlike West Brom - with only about 8/9 games to go. But fortunately for Leicester and Pearson, about 6 of these games were against "mid-table, "on-the-beach" teams with neither European ambitions nor relegation worries - I seem to remember these teams were West Ham (Foxes grabbed a last-minute winner), West Brom (4-3 with another last-minute winner), Swansea (2-0) and Southampton (2-0)....In a short space of time, 12 points from 4 games plus wins aganst relegation rivals Burnley & QPR. The only difficult game (1-3 at home to champions Chelsea). Leicester finished comfortably clear in 13th or 14th if my memory serves me right.

Until the last few games, nobody now knows who will be playing at full tilt or at half pace with one eye on avoiding injury ahead of the World Cup. Our own currently injured Steven Defour mentioned this "World Cup" factor only this week. He wondered whether his Belgium team-mates like De Bruyn, Hazard and Lukaku might reach Russia "burned out", by the unique punishing schedule of the English Premier League alongside deep incursions into the Champions League.

 

[Triggaaar]

IF we lost to Swansea, what do reckon - likely staying up or on being relegated?

Relegated.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Less than 3 points tomorrow and these odds will be different

 

[lancyclaret]

At least we have the game (v Man United)....I see West Ham look like they don’t play between 10th and 31st March. Nice three week “warm weather training” break...?

I think there are quite a few teams with no interest in the FA Cup who will have a 21-day break to recuperate and get injured players ready for the April/May run-in. Burnley are away to West Ham on March 10 before the next match at West Brom on March 31. Hopefully we will have found some form again for the final 7/8 games in April and May.