[Albion] Difficulty of run-in

[dwayne]

Just looked at west broms next 5 fixtures after tonight.

All winnable ......... !

Think I'm gonna take 1 game at a time

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[Bodian]

last 5 could be

Man C (A) rearranged 18/4 ?
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Man U (H)
Liverpool (A)

I'm looking forward to the Burnley game. I think it could be the pivotal one. Hopefully I might be able to get a ticket if not too many book early!

 

[Bozza]

Just looked at west broms next 5 fixtures after tonight.

All winnable ......... !

Think I'm gonna take 1 game at a time

They've won 3 all season, many of them "winnable" and they're not lucky enough to be playing us again.

 

[bristolseagull]

Not too sure a few points difference on that scale will actually count towards too many different results, and I reckon the 'On the beach' and 'Rest players for the Champions League' are much bigger factors.

and a World Cup summer...

 

[dwayne]

They've won 3 all season, many of them "winnable" and they're not lucky enough to be playing us again.

Conversely if you include cup games they've only lost 3 of their last 9 games !! I don't see them as dead and buried by any stretch

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[beorhthelm]

You've said this on pretty much every thread about this league. I do think you're wrong.

A draw would have us on 29 with 10 to play. We'd still have home games against Arsenal, Leicester, Huddersfield, Spurs and MU. We'd have away games at Everton, Burnley and Palace as well as Man City and Liverpool. If you do a predictor, you can see many of the sides below us play each other, so there is always going to be someone dropping points below us. I can see us getting points away as well as at home. We might get away with needing 8 points from those 10, we have shown we are capable of that.

It's far from sunk if we fail to beat Swansea. It becomes a lot more difficult, but still a lot to play for.

if not Swansea where are we most likely to pick up wins? Leicester, Huddersfield at home, maybe a sneaky win against Arsenal if they're off form. Cant see any joy on the road except a point here or there. Love to be wrong the tail end was always tight with the last 4 games, we have to be safe-ish by then or relying on other results

 

[Bold Seagull]

if not Swansea where are we most likely to pick up wins? Leicester, Huddersfield at home, maybe a sneaky win against Arsenal if they're off form. Cant see any joy on the road except a point here or there. Love to be wrong the tail end was always tight with the last 4 games, we have to be safe-ish by then or relying on other results

I'm not saying it will be easy, I merely stating its not game over if we don't beat Swansea.

Continuing your own example, 2 home wins, 4 draws inc. Swansea and we're on 38.

 

[Eddiespearritt]

One other interesting factor is that Southampton, who were pretty appalling yesterday, have disproportionately more away games than everyone else. This, because they switched an away game against West Ham to St Mary's back in August because the World Athletics Champs were winding down, and the stadium being reconfigured.

Saints last eleven are 7 away and 4 at home.

Of the four at home - two are against Chelsea and Man City.

 

[A1X]

Quick reminder after this weekend (with one game still to go for West Brom at Chelsea), points against the big teams this season...

Watford - 8 (8 games)
Swansea - 7 (9)
Bournemouth - 6 (9)
West Ham - 5 (7)
Stoke - 4 (8)
Newcastle - 4 (8)
Palace - 4 (8)
Huddersfield - 3 (8)
West Brom - 3 (8)
Southampton - 3 (9)
Brighton - 0 (7)

 

[Bozza]

Quick reminder after this weekend (with one game still to go for West Brom at Chelsea), points against the big teams this season...

Watford - 8 (8 games)
Swansea - 7 (9)
Bournemouth - 6 (9)
West Ham - 5 (7)
Stoke - 4 (8)
Newcastle - 4 (8)
Palace - 4 (8)
Huddersfield - 3 (8)
West Brom - 3 (8)
Southampton - 3 (9)
Brighton - 0 (7)

Which, without doing the analysis, should mean we're considerably better against the non-top 6 than anyone else in that list.

 

[A1X]

Which, without doing the analysis, should mean we're considerably better against the non-top 6 than anyone else in that list.

Undeniably true. The problem is with the others picking up "free" points off those teams when we have none then we'd need to be 8 points better off against the rest than Watford etc, which is a big ask at this stage of the season with games running out.

 

[Peter Grummit]

One other interesting factor is that Southampton, who were pretty appalling yesterday, have disproportionately more away games than everyone else. This, because they switched an away game against West Ham to St Mary's back in August because the World Athletics Champs were winding down, and the stadium being reconfigured.

Saints last eleven are 7 away and 4 at home.

Of the four at home - two are against Chelsea and Man City.

I was looking at exactly this. Every year, one of the relegated teams is a bit of a surprise ('too much quality'; 'too good to go down' etc). Have a sneaky feeling Saints may be that team this year.

On the same subject, enjoyed this Tweet (from paddy power as it happens):

'Dad, it's been 80 minutes, do we have to keep booing?'

'Yes, look here comes Lallana. A fresh one. Boooooooooo'

'What's the point, though?'

'Just f*cking do it'

 

[Stat Brother]

Undeniably true. The problem is with the others picking up "free" points off those teams when we have none YET then we'd need to be 8 points better off against the rest than Watford etc, which is a big ask at this stage of the season with games running out.

As disappointed as I was by the performances v City, Spurs, Chelsea (a) and most definitely Arsenal.

My doom and gloom about playing top 6 sides isn't quite so gloomy based on the performances v Utd and even Chelsea & Liverpool.

Esp now considering how much better a 'team' they look recently with the added bonus of actual strikers as well.

 

[Peter Grummit]

Looking (below) at the final 2 rounds of fixtures, the bottom v bottom clashes mean we probably only need to maintain our current position until then, and it will be very difficult for sufficient teams to overtake us. For example, the final round has CP v WBA and Swansea v Stoke. They can't all win, so we may not need to get anything much from those last 2 games.

Eternal optimist PG.

SATURDAY 5TH MAY
Arsenal
15:00
Burnley
AFC Bournemouth
15:00
Swansea City
Brighton & Hove Albion
15:00
Manchester United
Chelsea
15:00
Liverpool
Everton
15:00
Southampton
Leicester City
15:00
West Ham United
Manchester City
15:00
Huddersfield Town
Stoke City
15:00
Crystal Palace
Watford
15:00
Newcastle United
West Bromwich Albion
15:00
Tottenham Hotspur
SUNDAY 13TH MAY
Burnley
15:00
AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
15:00
West Bromwich Albion
Huddersfield Town
15:00
Arsenal
Liverpool
15:00
Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United
15:00
Watford
Newcastle United
15:00
Chelsea
Southampton
15:00
Manchester City
Swansea City
15:00
Stoke City
Tottenham Hotspur
15:00
Leicester City
West Ham United
15:00
Everton

 

[MattBackHome]

Easiest to most difficult, ordered by the average current points of the sides to be faced...

1 Leicester City 31.364
2 Liverpool 31.833
3 Burnley 32.182
4 Tottenham Hotspur 33.364
5 Everton 34.000
6 Bournemouth 34.083
7 Arsenal 35.182
8 Swansea City 36.000
9 Manchester City 36.091
10 Manchester United 36.333
11 Watford 36.455
12 Crystal Palace 36.545
13 Huddersfield Town 36.750
14 West Bromwich Albion 37.000
15 Chelsea 37.167
16 Newcastle United 37.833
17 Southampton 38.417
18 Stoke City 39.545
19 West Ham United 41.545
20 Brighton & Hove Albion 41.727

An alternative view:

I've looked at the last 6 game form table and adjusted each teams Expected PPG according to recent Home/Away performance (e.g. City played 4 home, won 4 = 3PPG, Played 2 away 1pt = 0.5PPG)

I've then added the respective scores for each opponents to be faced - basically the lower the total score the easier the run in, according to FORM and H/A performances.

Oh, look who's got the second easiest run in...



My MODEL suggests this order of difficulty (from hardest to easiest):

HARDEST
Man City Away
Liverpool Away
Palace Away
Everton Away
Man Utd Home
Spurs Home
Swansea Home
Burnley Away
Leicester Home
Arsenal Home
Huddersfield Home
EASIEST

 

[brianwade]

Easiest to most difficult, ordered by the average current points of the sides to be faced...

1 Leicester City 31.364
2 Liverpool 31.833
3 Burnley 32.182
4 Tottenham Hotspur 33.364
5 Everton 34.000
6 Bournemouth 34.083
7 Arsenal 35.182
8 Swansea City 36.000
9 Manchester City 36.091
10 Manchester United 36.333
11 Watford 36.455
12 Crystal Palace 36.545
13 Huddersfield Town 36.750
14 West Bromwich Albion 37.000
15 Chelsea 37.167
16 Newcastle United 37.833
17 Southampton 38.417
18 Stoke City 39.545
19 West Ham United 41.545
20 Brighton & Hove Albion 41.727

Sorry this is a farcical use of statistics - scare- mongering and another yawn from Bozza -
what about home games v away games ? recent form ? new signings ? top teams in Europe at the end of the season ? Ten - twelve points is all we need and we are definitely going to get those with an improving squad and great management team . Zero to worry about from where I see it

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

sorry this is a farcical use of statistics - scare- mongering and another yawn from bozza -
what about home games v away games ? Recent form ? New signings ? Top teams in europe at the end of the season ? Ten - twelve points is all we need and we are definitely going to get those with an improving squad and great management team . Zero to worry about from where i see it

come out form underneath the covers
regards
DR

 

[Peter Grummit]

An alternative view:

I've looked at the last 6 game form table and adjusted each teams Expected PPG according to recent Home/Away performance (e.g. City played 4 home, won 4 = 3PPG, Played 2 away 1pt = 0.5PPG)

I've then added the respective scores for each opponents to be faced - basically the lower the total score the easier the run in, according to FORM and H/A performances.

Oh, look who's got the second easiest run in...

View attachment 94104

My MODEL suggests this order of difficulty (from hardest to easiest):

HARDEST
Man City Away
Liverpool Away
Palace Away
Everton Away
Man Utd Home
Spurs Home
Swansea Home
Burnley Away
Leicester Home
Arsenal Home
Huddersfield Home
EASIEST

Very interesting.

Can this be summarised as although we have to play the most Top 6 teams, we are on average due to play teams who are out of form? And that WBA, Geordies and Taffs have to play the form teams?

PG

 

[A1X]

Looking (below) at the final 2 rounds of fixtures, the bottom v bottom clashes mean we probably only need to maintain our current position until then, and it will be very difficult for sufficient teams to overtake us. For example, the final round has CP v WBA and Swansea v Stoke. They can't all win, so we may not need to get anything much from those last 2 games.

Eternal optimist PG.

Manchester City
15:00
Huddersfield Town

Southampton
15:00
Manchester City

Worth noting these in particular as it any team is going to be "on the beach" it's likely to be Man City, given they'd have been champions for a month and virtually their entire first team squad is going to be off to Russia so won't be trying very hard.

 

[father_and_son]

Our situation puts me in mind of the old joke...

A bear jumps out of a bush and starts chasing two hikers. They both start running for their lives, but then one of them stops to put on his running shoes.

His friends says, "What are you doing? You can't outrun a bear!"

His friend replies, "I don't have to outrun the bear; I only have to outrun you!"