[Albion] Difficulty of run-in

[Surport Local Team]

This what I worrie about our whole season coming down to a few must not lose/win games! So far so good last three matches and on course, but heaven for bid we lose to Swansea and draw with Huddersfield and it all looks very scary

 

[Bold Seagull]

Even if we didn’t take any points from the top 6 sides for the rest of the season, which I think we will, I think we have enough games left against sides where we can pick up points.

I would say home to Leicester and away to Burnley are very winnable in addition to the Swansea and Huddersfield games. Add in the definite potential for points away to Everton and Palace, I think we’ll be ok.

I've not given up hope of a Europa League spot just yet!

 

[mwrpoole]

Let's check:
Arse - 4th March - they could have the first leg of round of 16 Europa league shortly after, but they need to fight for 4th more.
City - 18th March - no CL games around then
Spurs - 21st Apr - they'll probably be out by then, but could have a semi-final on 24th/25th which would be good - still fighting for 4th though
Utd - 5th May - also probably out, but could have had a semi-final on 1st/2nd May
Liv - 13th May - No CL then

Can't see us getting much help there.

I'm not sure what the odds are but I think it is very unlikely we'll be playing City on 18th March - FA Cup Q/F weekend.

I don't know when it will re-arranged for but I'm sure I heard somewhere its likely to be 17th/18th April. If so I'd expect City to have won the PL by then, it all helps...

 

[Motogull]

Bring it on.

 

[BensGrandad]

I think that the difficult run in will have the players minds set on the job in hand rather than an easy one that they take for granted. We all know how we came unstuck at Rotherham a couple of seasons ago. so I am not concerned about who we play in April.

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm not sure what the odds are but I think it is very unlikely we'll be playing City on 18th March - FA Cup Q/F weekend.

I don't know when it will re-arranged for but I'm sure I heard somewhere its likely to be 17th/18th April. If so I'd expect City to have won the PL by then, it all helps...

That all makes sense, but out of the 12 games against the top 6, if you could choose one of those games to have a distracted opposition, City away would be your last choice, because they could be pissed up in a nightclub in Ibiza when realising they had a game with us in the afternoon and still smash us.

 

[Lewes Punk]

It's still on a knife-edge for me. We could go down, we could stay up. But I've got no doubt that every player is giving their all and CH knows how to get the best out of what he's got. And I don't think there's a single game where you could say we've been lucky to get a result - it's all been hard-earned.

Smells like team spirit.

 

[Triggaaar]

Bring it on.

Isn't that supposed to be three sentences?

 

[DumLum]

It is, but I'm not quite on the 'must win' with it at this point, definitely a 'must not lose'. Think we have the performances in us to pull off some surprises in our run in.

It's not a must win but if we don't we will have to beat a team higher than them in the table. So pretty close.

 

[kevtherev]

Our GD is better than Stoke and Hudds, but not a lot different to the others, and could yet take a pasting with away games at Liverpool and City to look forward to.

But WBA need to go on a hell of a run now to get out of trouble. Huddersfield look done for. Would take a monumental shift in fortunes for Stoke to turn the gd around with us. Palace now have an awful run of fixtures and are faulteting again after an impressive run of form. We will get over the line just..In fact the game at Selhurst will really be a pivotal game.

 

[Triggaaar]

But WBA need to go on a hell of a run now to get out of trouble.

Agreed. Let's just say they're one of the 3.

Huddersfield look done for.

They're winning at the moment. Win today, and they're level with us on points, and they have less games left vs top 6.

Would take a monumental shift in fortunes for Stoke to turn the gd around with us.

Agreed, I did say we have a better GD than Stoke and Hudds. That's not to say they can't overtake us on points.

Palace now have an awful run of fixtures

Right, but they've got 4 games against top 6 and then it's easy after that - we've got 5 games against the top 6. And we've got the tough away game at Everton that they've just had. I'd rather have their fixtures than ours.

Back to GD - if we're level on points with Stoke or Hudds, GD will hopefully be in our favour. Against the other sides, maybe not.

 

[Motogull]

I think its going to be tight as a gnat's chuff right to the very end. Scary, fascinating and exciting at the same time.

I've seen enough to believe we deserve to stay up but there would be no embarrassment on us if we end up going down. There will be four or five mightily relieved clubs come the final, final whistle on the last weekend, and at least two incredibly frustrated ones.

 

[Aspinal's Body Double]

Its a talking point but flawed.

The data isn't flawed- unless there are errors in it. It is what it is. Some conclusions based on the data might be flawed.

One thought I have is that a team near the bottom who has a lot of games against other teams in a similar position would appear to have an easy run-in. Such games can often be the most competitive at the end of the season of course, but even if they did win these games they would be taking points from other relegation candidates in the process.

 

[Surrey Phil]

According to the difficulty of that table, neither Huddersfield or Newcastle should have won today but they did. I think in the last third of the season, the form book goes out of the window.

 

[Bozza]

According to the difficulty of that table, neither Huddersfield or Newcastle should have won today but they did. I think in the last third of the season, the form book goes out of the window.

No, the form book is very much in the window, but it's not accounted for in that table which looks at points gained alone. Swansea are a prime example: a low points tally but very much in form. Burnley, another example, they haven't won in 10 now.

 

[Steve.S]

I would rather play the top 6 towards the end, can’t see many of the will have a lot to play for and maybe thinking about not getting injured with the World Cup coming up. Look on the bright side, those around us will be playing each other so points will be difficult or harder if they lose.

 

[perseus]

last 5 could be

Man C (A) rearranged 18/4 ?
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Man U (H)
Liverpool (A)

 

[perseus]

From memory when I looked it up the best chances of winning are

1) Home matches 60% against middle of table sides 30% draw 20% lose

or

2) Home matches 50% against fellow relegation sides 35% > draw >15% lose

Usually away match success is 10% or less, unless against fellow relegation candidates when it is up to 15%.

Home games against top clubs is usually less than 10% win.

So 8 pts = 36 is the very least we should get. I think it will be 2 or more points not enough.

 

[Surf's Up]

I was visiting friends in Liverpool last weekend and went to see the Liverpool v Tottenham game. Quite frankly the thought that we might need to go there for the last game of the season needing to win filled me with horror!!

 

[Baldseagull]

From memory when I looked it up the best chances of winning are

1) Home matches 60% against middle of table sides 30% draw 20% lose

or

2) Home matches 50% against fellow relegation sides 35% > draw >15% lose

Usually away match success is 10% or less, unless against fellow relegation candidates when it is up to 15%.

Home games against top clubs is usually less than 10% win.

So 8 pts = 36 is the very least we should get. I think it will be 2 or more points not enough.

38 will be enough.