fat old seagull
New member
Draw-Draw. Halftime and Fulltime. ...... 4/1 Bet365 
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
Derby v Forest
- Thread starter Napper
- Start date
Agree with this, although I think that Wigan are on such a good run that they will end up 3rd. We are definitely in the mix for 4th, 5th & 6th
But it isn't - there are just too many games remaining to determine what our best chance is.
Plenty of time for any club to hit form or in our case (and Wigan's) to blow up completely. The good thing here is that points will be dropped in this game. The bad thing is that at least one of the two teams who are in awful form will get something from it.
Quite. Win our game in hand at that's 4 points. FOUR. That is NOTHING considering the amount of time left. I'm looking higher than 6th right now, no question.
The first week in April will be CRUCIAL
Blackburn (A)
Barnsley (A)
Leicester (A)
Blackburn (A)
Barnsley (A)
Leicester (A)
I think you're missing the point of what 'chance' means. We don't know for a fact which clubs will finish in the top 6, so what we're dealing with now is chance and probability. The probability (and therefore odds) of us finishing in the top 6 will improve if Derby beat Forest.
So the fact is, we have a better 'chance' of finishing in the top 6 if Derby beat Forest. Of course, by the end of the season, it's possible Forest would go on to win loads and finish about us anyway, and Derby could finish 1 point above us, pushing us to 7th, and that Derby win could be what cost us - but right now, our best chance of finishing in the top 6 is if Derby win.
It will only be crucial if we don't win our home games. If you offered me THREE points from those three games right now, I'd probably take it.
I'm not really missing your point at all. Clearly I understand that you think we are more likely to finish in the top 6 if Derby win - that much isn't rocket science. How you could think I have missed that point is quite beyond me.
To paraphrase you, you said "our aim is top 6, it's that simple". I disagree. I think we'll finish top six if we are strong at home, but quite fancy us for 3rd or 4th. So I'd say a 0-0 for Derby v Forest is preferred, because a win over Ipswich means we improve on both teams, does nothing for either team's confidence, AND leaves us handily placed for an ASSAULT on 3rd or 4th.
But if you want to cheer on Derby, you fill your boots. I'd rather it was a DRAW.
sydney
tinky ****in winky
very much so....0-0 i reckon.
'Top 6' doesn't have to mean '6th' though.
The statement 'our aim is top 6' is undeniably correct.
Hotchilidog
Well-known member
- Jan 24, 2009
- 9,122
If we beat Ipswich, then we will profit from whatever result the Derby Forest game throws up.
I'm not fussed about 3rd/4th/5th or 6th I just want to be in the playoffs. I see little advantage in the seeding for the playoffs this year as the six teams currently trying to secure the four spots seem to be close enough for it not to matter who you play. Also any team contemplating promotion should not be unduly worried over the identity of a potential playoff opponent.
I'm not fussed about 3rd/4th/5th or 6th I just want to be in the playoffs. I see little advantage in the seeding for the playoffs this year as the six teams currently trying to secure the four spots seem to be close enough for it not to matter who you play. Also any team contemplating promotion should not be unduly worried over the identity of a potential playoff opponent.
So we agree that our chances of finishing 3rd or 4th are improved if Derby don't win, and we agree that our chances of finishing 6th improve if Derby do win? 3rd or 4th would be nice, but surely 6th or better is the main aim.
It is, but it's not "that simple". We're getting into semantics now, but ultimately I'd say the statement 'our aim is to finish as high as possible' is also undeniably correct, and the one I have in mind when I say I'm hoping for a draw.
Yes. But I like the draw because it improves both likelihoods, as a point gets dropped by our promotion rivals.
So in summary,
For me, in order of preference:
Draw
Derby win
.
.
.
.
.
.
Forest Win
For you, in order of preference:
Derby win
Draw
.
.
.
.
.
.
Forest Win
nwgull
Well-known member
Blackburn - already 8 points off the pace and likely to have no realistic chance after next 3 games.
Barnsley - if we can't beat them in April then we may as well forget even turning up in the play offs.
Leicester - will be promoted by then.
I can realistically see 6-7 points from these 3.
Yes we do, and obviously it's not clear what effect the Derby/Forest game will have on our final position. A draw could mean that we finish just above Derby, instead of just below - so we get 3rd or 4th instead of 4th or 5th. Slightly better, but no big deal IMO. Whereas a win for Derby could mean we finish a point above Forest, in 6th instead of 7th - now that would be a big deal.
Of course, like you say, a draw will effect the confidence of both teams, but again I'd like to see Forest's confidence even more effected, by a loss, boosting our chance of a top 6 finish.
Fortunately, we don't have to agree.