[Other Sport] Cycling geeks

[Stat Brother]

My sarcasm did not really come through in the last post.

Sorry my mistake!!

I thought we were joining forces to swell 1066 t'internet betting account.

Figuring we give his cheeky bet a good kicking.
Gaudin will then obviously win in a majestic fashion.
1066 can be bouncetastic with money to burn.

Everyone's a winner.

 

[Motogull]

So. No comments after the weak Top Gear section then? Not just here but generally. I've only seen a couple of comments. Was it really that drab?

Can anyone tell me what that little tube thing is in some puncture repair kits?

 

[1066familyman]

At this point my thoughts on Roubaix are Stybar and Cancellara are most likely, think Boonen will go well in Flanders but two in a week will be too much. Also Sagan has to win one of them, he is just too good to be continually beaten, maybe Strade Bianche this weekend, and Milan San Remo, that is where my money will be going.

Again, not much I disagree with there either.

Obviously I wouldn't rate Gaudin's chances above Canc or Stybar in Roubaix, and there's atleast a handful more that, all things being equal, would be safer bets. I just think that with it being such a lottery of a race, Gaudin represents best value for the few quid I'm putting on. To back one of the favourites I'd want to go bigger stakes to make it worth while as the odds are too short, and I'm not prepared to do that. However, I still think Gaudin will improve in this race for a few years yet and I'm not buying into last years result being a one off.

So where's your money going in Strade Bianche and Milan San Remo? Do you mean Sagan for both?

For Strade Bianche I can see it proving a big indicator of where Canc's form is. I think he'll be looking to podium here. He may need to do well because so far Boonen has the edge on him for early form. But there's a bloody good line up riding, what with the likes of Ulissi & Kwiatkowski here to name just a couple of many to be excited about.

Milan San Remo is back for the sprinters I see. Cav is riding Strade Bianche I see, though he has no chance of doing anything, so he clearly wants to get in some shape for MSR.

I think with both these two races I shall probably pick a rank outsider for the best odds again and maybe one other of the more favoured that represents best value. Keen to see what Kwiatkowski is for Strade Bianche.

 

[Stat Brother]

So. No comments after the weak Top Gear section then? Not just here but generally. I've only seen a couple of comments. Was it really that drab?

Can anyone tell me what that little tube thing is in some puncture repair kits?

No idea, probably just an implement to stop you gluing your fingers.

The Top Gear thing had a couple of very very minor amusements.
"Being self righteous doesn't make you safe" or something like that.

It also highlighted sensible drivers and sensible cyclists.
I'm not sure if that was what it set out to do, but it was the end result.

Overall it was 10 minutes I could have done without, D-.

 

[Stat Brother]

Keen to see what Kwiatkowski is for Strade Bianche.

He's cementing his tour form this spring.
I wouldn't be surprised if he is 3rd or 4th favourite.

I guess if your lucky Sagan and Moser riding might improve his odds slightly, but also dramatically weaken his chances of winning.


We'll certainly know soon enough if Cancellara is going for the hour record at the end of the Classics.

 

[Hamilton]

Anyone know which channel is showing the Strade Bianche this weekend?

 

[1066familyman]

Anyone know which channel is showing the Strade Bianche this weekend?

Eurosport, though not sure which one.

I'll be watching as it's my neighbours turn to use the season ticket this week

 

[Pantani]

Again, not much I disagree with there either.

Obviously I wouldn't rate Gaudin's chances above Canc or Stybar in Roubaix, and there's atleast a handful more that, all things being equal, would be safer bets. I just think that with it being such a lottery of a race, Gaudin represents best value for the few quid I'm putting on. To back one of the favourites I'd want to go bigger stakes to make it worth while as the odds are too short, and I'm not prepared to do that. However, I still think Gaudin will improve in this race for a few years yet and I'm not buying into last years result being a one off.

So where's your money going in Strade Bianche and Milan San Remo? Do you mean Sagan for both?

For Strade Bianche I can see it proving a big indicator of where Canc's form is. I think he'll be looking to podium here. He may need to do well because so far Boonen has the edge on him for early form. But there's a bloody good line up riding, what with the likes of Ulissi & Kwiatkowski here to name just a couple of many to be excited about.

Milan San Remo is back for the sprinters I see. Cav is riding Strade Bianche I see, though he has no chance of doing anything, so he clearly wants to get in some shape for MSR.

I think with both these two races I shall probably pick a rank outsider for the best odds again and maybe one other of the more favoured that represents best value. Keen to see what Kwiatkowski is for Strade Bianche.

At the moment I am thinking Sagan for both Strade Bianche and MSR, doubt I will bet on that outcome though, as like you said for us small stakes gamblers short odds are not worth it.

At MSR, I can see the riders who were looking forward to the addition of the Pompeiana (sp?) making the race difficult for the sprinters, it is not like it has been a bunch sprint that often in recent years, last time was 2010 when Freire won from a group of 25. So small group sprint has to be Sagan (or Boonen, just feel OPQ will be working for Cav).

Strade Bianche, like you say, I am expecting Cancellara to show in this one. Just feel that Sagan after handing it on a plate to Moser last year will want to actually take this one this time round. Despite his supreme talent Sagan really has not won that many one day races, and no Monuments as yet. His biggest one day win to date is Gent-Wevelgem, which whilst a big race, is far from being a palmares definer.

As for Kwiatkowski, I would like to know what his targets are for the season (and his odds) before betting on him. He certainly appears to have the capability of winning a Strade Bianche or similar, it just depends what his goal is this season. I'm thinking he (and his team) see himself as a GC contender. Just done some research he is riding Strade Bianche, Tirreno-Adriatico, País Vasco, the Ardennes Classics, the Tour de Switzerland or the Critérium du Dauphiné and then the Tour de France. If I was to lump on for him anywhere it would e/w at Tirreno, a TTT whilst riding for OPQ should put him in the lead from day one, another time trial at the end, none of the big boys marking him in the mountains, I'm gonna get involved in that unless his odds are crazy short.

I really like the look of Ulissi though. His form since the back end of last season is phenomenal. If he can get in a lead group that does not include Sagan he could well take it. So he will be one of my bets for Strade, odds depending.

So in summation, upcoming bets:

Strade Bianche: Sagan to win (unless odds are crazy short), Ulissi e/w and Nocentini e/w (again odds dependent) and probably 50p on a 200-1 outsider because it is fun.

Milan San Remo: Sagan again, then look for value on a Kristoff type rider.

Tirreno Adriatico: Kwiatkowski e/w and life savings, house, girlfriend, season ticket and dog on OPQS to win the TTT.

Finally, no bets for Paris-Nice as the course is a bit of a mess, and will be impossible to pick a winner for a race that is effectively a week of one day races cobbled together in to a tour.

PS Can I borrow someone's dog to bet on OPQS in the Tirreno TTT, please.

 

[Stat Brother]

More value, from the notoriously tight Skybet, than I thought at MSR:-

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/milan_-_san-remo/event/16275609

Flanders

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/tour-of-flanders/event/15979315

Frank Schleck 20/1 for Liege

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/liege_-_bastogne_-_liege/event/16275646

Roubaix

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/paris_-_roubaix/event/15979304


It would seem there is some decent value betting against Boonen and Cancellara.
As soon as we get a look a Cancellaras form we'll know how big a folly that would be.

 

[Pantani]

Eurosport, though not sure which one.

I'll be watching as it's my neighbours turn to use the season ticket this week

Almost wish I had a neighbour to take my ST too

For those who are not 'bad fans' there is a rerun on Eurosport 2 at 22:30 and Eurosport 1 at 23:45 and another one Sunday morning on Eurosport 2 at 8:15. Hoping that the transfer deadline for Roma Maxima is after that as I do not want any spoilers.

 

[Pantani]

More value, from the notoriously tight Skybet, than I thought at MSR:-

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/milan_-_san-remo/event/16275609

Flanders

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/tour-of-flanders/event/15979315

Frank Schleck 20/1 for Liege

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/liege_-_bastogne_-_liege/event/16275646

Roubaix

http://www.skybet.com/cycling/paris_-_roubaix/event/15979304


It would seem there is some decent value betting against Boonen and Cancellara.
As soon as we get a look a Cancellaras form we'll know how big a folly that would be.

Fancy EBH for Milan San Remo at that price (40-1!), Sky will be working for him alone I would think and he looks on decent form. Maybe G at 80-1 too.

 

[Stat Brother]

Fancy EBH for Milan San Remo at that price (40-1!), Sky will be working for him alone I would think and he looks on decent form. Maybe G at 80-1 too.

G has got to be looking at a cobbled Classic.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

G has got to be looking at a cobbled Classic.

I hope so. I had him down for one last year, but it all went horribly wrong, didn't it?

 

[Hamilton]

I hope so. I had him down for one last year, but it all went horribly wrong, didn't it?

From what I can see it seems to go horribly wrong for him a lot. Is that bad luck or a theme do you think?

 

[Stat Brother]

It would seem the cinema, well documentary markers, are really keen on geek cash.

Pantani, Lance warts 'n all, and now LeMond is getting a cinematic work over:-

Slaying the Badger
Directed and written by John Dower
(UK) – World Premiere, Documentary
Before Lance Armstrong, there was Greg LeMond, who is now the first and only American to win the Tour de France. In this engrossing documentary, LeMond looks back at the pivotal 1986 Tour, and his increasingly vicious rivalry with friend, teammate, and mentor Bernard Hinault. The reigning Tour champion and brutal competitor known as “The Badger,” Hinault ‘promised’ to help LeMond to his first victory, in return for LeMond supporting him in the previous year. But in a sport that purports to reward teamwork, it’s really every man for himself. An ESPN Films Production.

I can't find any youtube trailer for this one yet.

But I guess we can be sure [MENTION=16720]Indurain's Lungs[/MENTION] will be camping out for this.

 

[Stat Brother]

I hope so. I had him down for one last year, but it all went horribly wrong, didn't it?

From what I can see it seems to go horribly wrong for him a lot. Is that bad luck or a theme do you think?

They were talking about that on the HI podcast.
The general consensus seemed to be his road career can't be catagorised as 'unlucky' for much longer without asking more searching questions.



I had a lovely tailwind flat blast out to Coombes today.
Then had to suffer the ignominy of watching my ave speed click downwards over the headwind lumps, coming home.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

From what I can see it seems to go horribly wrong for him a lot. Is that bad luck or a theme do you think?

Well, it was a bit of a theme at the beginning of last season. I still think he could be 'great'.

 

[Motogull]

Bike's home, tyres swapped and anyone doing a rain dance is gonna get thumped.

 

[strings]

Stupid weather. Got into my cycling gear this morning, it started pissing down before I left the house, so I changed into my usual work clobber and drove in.

Now it is glorious weather.

I'm hoping to get out both days this weekend - as since I got a road bike, it seems like it has hardly left the garage! Fingers crossed for decent weather...

 

[perseus]

New bike light. It is brilliant, literally: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Alphasonix-Machined-Aluminium-Waterproof-Multi-function/dp/B006HVKH22