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My 12 yr old was asking why the likes of Cav and Andy Schleck aren't doing much at the mo. The way I described it to him was to think of it with football as pre season warm up matches - the results don't mean a lot,it's just about getting fit really for the serious stuff that comes later.
Talking of Paris - Nice, I looked at ferry crossings from Dover to Calais on Sunday 8th April earlier for Paris - Roubaix. £30 return for a car and 4 people sounds pretty good. Seriously thinking of going for it as it only clashes with Burnley away and I've already lost my chance of doing all games this season as I missed 'Boro & Leeds away. Have you ever been over for it yourself ?
I can't drive unfortunately so that rather puts the kibosh on following cycle racing in the flesh, I suppose I could train it over then ride out to watch but that is quite a mission. Getting to Paris-Roubaix is going to cheaper to get to than Burnley and definitely more picturesque, sounds great.
On the first bit you have it about spot on. It is impossible for a cyclist to be at peak fitness for nine months so most target a part of the season, or certain Tour, some double it up (say spring classics then a second ramp up for the Worlds). I think Cav will leave it late this year and win far less than previously early season, then try and peak for TdF and hold his form through to the Olympics.