[Politics] Cost of Living Crisis

[WATFORD zero]

Yeah, you have to be selective and not pay the rip off prices. I know it’s not an essential (before anyone gives me a lecture) but one of our local bars has put its wine prices up and another one has some good offers. We have adjusted accordingly. We are also shopping around all the supermarkets as different ones try it on with different products. The only thing we buy in Sainsbury’s for instance is coffee. I reckon there is a fair amount of bandwagon jumping going on by shops so you have to be alert.

I agree completely about the need to shop around but unfortunately, whether it's true underlying costs increasing or bandwagon jumping, the result is still the same. More increases in inflation and yet more problems for the poorest

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Up o

I agree completely about the need to shop around but unfortunately, whether it's true underlying costs increasing or bandwagon jumping, the result is still the same. More increases in inflation and yet more problems for the poorest

Yep, and of course it’s impossible to quantify which is which. As you say, the result is the same in whichever combination. The art of shopping is returning to the way it used to be for my Mum in the 1970s ie spending ages shopping around although without me on the child seat on the back of her bicycle.

 

[nicko31]

Think some places are taking the piss over food inflation, local pizza take-away has put up its prices up 43% !

Derv hitting 2.02 this morning, yet oil prices dropping back a bit. Even Tesco on 1.999 now.

Suspect some profiteering. Distinct lack of people doing over 80 on motorway, the pain is changing behaviour

 

[Machiavelli]

Up o

Yep, and of course it’s impossible to quantify which is which. As you say, the result is the same in whichever combination. The art of shopping is returning to the way it used to be for my Mum in the 1970s ie spending ages shopping around although without me on the child seat on the back of her bicycle.

Agreed, but the problem with that is most of us have got full-time jobs to do (and, often, work beyond our contracted hours), which reduces the time available to bargain hunt around multiple supermarkets.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Agreed, but the problem with that is most of us have got full-time jobs to do (and, often, work beyond our contracted hours), which reduces the time available to bargain hunt around multiple supermarkets.

Yup, my mum didn’t work and a lot of my childhood memories are us traipsing around shops and the market. I think she went shopping most days ! Very difficult to find the time these days.

 

[beorhthelm]

trick with supermarkets is to look whats on offer. Tesco's at least has rolling discounts of products in a range, so one week will be their own brand the next the brand. my weekly shopping bill is often similar to a year ago because im buying half items on the discount rate.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

trick with supermarkets is to look whats on offer. Tesco's at least has rolling discounts of products in a range, so one week will be their own brand the next the brand. my weekly shopping bill is often similar to a year ago because im buying half items on the discount rate.

And knowing when they do the discounting for meat and fish. That can make a big difference to the bill.

 

[Audax]

trick with supermarkets is to look whats on offer. Tesco's at least has rolling discounts of products in a range, so one week will be their own brand the next the brand. my weekly shopping bill is often similar to a year ago because im buying half items on the discount rate.

Yup, and tracking the discount cycle can really help. My Mrs keeps a spreadsheet with some of our higher cost regular purchases so we can check Tesco online for discounts before going shopping. If you track it, you can then get an idea of the cycle they're using and be able to predict when certain items will be on cheap next. Of course, it stops working whenever they change the cycle.

Which they recently did and caught us out - one of our items hadn't bee in the discounting cycle for ages so we stopped worrying about it and just buying as needed. Bought 2 weeks ago, then last week it went on cheap for the first time in months (so we bought another and should have plenty to keep us going until it's cheap again now it's back in the cycle).

---

Saw Unleaded at the BP in Lewes at 196.9 on Friday. There's a lot of variability, though - not too much further afield saw 191.9 on Saturday. Will be interesting to see what the Uckfield prices are when I do my Monday shop at lunch time.

 

[Machiavelli]

The Tories long-standing hostility to single mothers reconfirmed:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-lone-parent-families-are-in-relative-poverty

 

[Machiavelli]

Continued erosion of average households finances over 15 years, in stark contrast to the prior 45 years:

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-living-standards-audit-2022/

And, it's currently accelerating, when they update this, it'll be much, much worse.

 

[Stat Brother]

The Tories long-standing hostility to single mothers reconfirmed:

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-lone-parent-families-are-in-relative-poverty

Odd when you consider just how many of those single mothers are as a result of the PM!

 

[Berty23]

The issue of children is about to really take off, I think. For so long people have said “if you can’t afford children then don’t have them” which has some merit but huge consequences. My wife and I reckoned two kids was about what we could afford sensibly but we’re blessed (I think that is what I am supposed to say) with twins. Some of the government policies stop for two kids so instant impact for some there, I believe.

The latest census data shows there has been a huge decline in births. People are having fewer children and waiting until they are older. For lots of the population the penny has not dropped yet for what a drop in the number of births actually means. They view this as “good less of a burden on services” but in reality none of us stay babies forever and the idea is that we grow to be productive in the workforce. With people living as long as ever and the birth rate dropping we are heading to a massive imbalance in the economy with too many old people with not enough workers. This will lead to demands for more immigrants etc. I Beleive some have labelled this as agequake which seems quite an appropriate name.

Childcare is incredibly expensive and I know for a fact is putting people off having children and pulling people out of the workforce to care for their children until they reach school age. I have often wondered why school is provided for free and even the 30 hour entitlement for 3 year olds but the first few years of life are ridiculously expensive. My wife had a pretty good job but it made no economic sense for her to work full time while we had three kids under 3 for 15 months. In fact, she stayed part time until all the kids were at school.

I suspect that affordable childcare and proper support for parents will be a key part of next election as the penny drops that we need people to have kids. Especially the middle classes.

 

[Frutos]

The issue of children is about to really take off, I think. For so long people have said “if you can’t afford children then don’t have them” which has some merit but huge consequences. My wife and I reckoned two kids was about what we could afford sensibly but we’re blessed (I think that is what I am supposed to say) with twins. Some of the government policies stop for two kids so instant impact for some there, I believe.

The latest census data shows there has been a huge decline in births. People are having fewer children and waiting until they are older. For lots of the population the penny has not dropped yet for what a drop in the number of births actually means. They view this as “good less of a burden on services” but in reality none of us stay babies forever and the idea is that we grow to be productive in the workforce. With people living as long as ever and the birth rate dropping we are heading to a massive imbalance in the economy with too many old people with not enough workers. This will lead to demands for more immigrants etc. I Beleive some have labelled this as agequake which seems quite an appropriate name.

Childcare is incredibly expensive and I know for a fact is putting people off having children and pulling people out of the workforce to care for their children until they reach school age. I have often wondered why school is provided for free and even the 30 hour entitlement for 3 year olds but the first few years of life are ridiculously expensive. My wife had a pretty good job but it made no economic sense for her to work full time while we had three kids under 3 for 15 months. In fact, she stayed part time until all the kids were at school.

I suspect that affordable childcare and proper support for parents will be a key part of next election as the penny drops that we need people to have kids. Especially the middle classes.

There was a piece in The Times yesterday suggesting the idea of "negative child benefit" - effectively taxing those who can't/won't/don't have kids:

"Introduce a “negative child benefit” tax for those who do not have offspring. This may seem unfair on those who can’t or won’t have children, but it recognises that we all rely on there being a next generation and that everyone should contribute to the cost of creating that generation. Use the funds to fix the UK’s broken, expensive early-years care system."

 

[macbeth]

There was a piece in The Times yesterday suggesting the idea of "negative child benefit" - effectively taxing those who can't/won't/don't have kids:

"Introduce a “negative child benefit” tax for those who do not have offspring. This may seem unfair on those who can’t or won’t have children, but it recognises that we all rely on there being a next generation and that everyone should contribute to the cost of creating that generation. Use the funds to fix the UK’s broken, expensive early-years care system."

an idea so terrible that I'm only surprised it isn't already official government policy

 

[Weststander]

The issue of children is about to really take off, I think. For so long people have said “if you can’t afford children then don’t have them” which has some merit but huge consequences. My wife and I reckoned two kids was about what we could afford sensibly but we’re blessed (I think that is what I am supposed to say) with twins. Some of the government policies stop for two kids so instant impact for some there, I believe.

The latest census data shows there has been a huge decline in births. People are having fewer children and waiting until they are older. For lots of the population the penny has not dropped yet for what a drop in the number of births actually means. They view this as “good less of a burden on services” but in reality none of us stay babies forever and the idea is that we grow to be productive in the workforce. With people living as long as ever and the birth rate dropping we are heading to a massive imbalance in the economy with too many old people with not enough workers. This will lead to demands for more immigrants etc. I Beleive some have labelled this as agequake which seems quite an appropriate name.

Childcare is incredibly expensive and I know for a fact is putting people off having children and pulling people out of the workforce to care for their children until they reach school age. I have often wondered why school is provided for free and even the 30 hour entitlement for 3 year olds but the first few years of life are ridiculously expensive. My wife had a pretty good job but it made no economic sense for her to work full time while we had three kids under 3 for 15 months. In fact, she stayed part time until all the kids were at school.

I suspect that affordable childcare and proper support for parents will be a key part of next election as the penny drops that we need people to have kids. Especially the middle classes.

Fertility rates have been declining for 2 decades across the EU/UK for 20 years (except France), particularly amongst the populace born in the country. Our current 1.58 sits in the middle.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20210323-2

That’s despite childcare provision, parental leave and greater housing supply in apartment blocks on the continent.

Analysis online often mention the reason as a disagreement in couples on when to start a family, also lifestyle choices.

 

[Gwylan]

There was a piece in The Times yesterday suggesting the idea of "negative child benefit" - effectively taxing those who can't/won't/don't have kids:

That was a bit of kite-flying, I can't see that happening: not yet, at least. But it's beginning to be clear that something needs to be done - the UK's on an unsustainable path that needs to be halted. The low birth rate has been masked by high levels of immigration but if those are cut, we're really exposed.

Assuming we're not going for the Logan's Run solution, there are three options: reinstate immigration levels; provide greater financial incentives for having kids (tax concessions, free childcare etc) or raise the pension age considerably (70, 75, possibly 80 in time). Sooner or later, a government is going to have to tackle this issue

 

[Lenny Rider]

When I made my horrendous mistake, I ended up with a 39 year old, 4 kids by three different blokes, I could not believe the level of benefits she was on, doesn't really send out the right message to the kids either?

 

[The Clamp]

There was a piece in The Times yesterday suggesting the idea of "negative child benefit" - effectively taxing those who can't/won't/don't have kids:

"Introduce a “negative child benefit” tax for those who do not have offspring. This may seem unfair on those who can’t or won’t have children, but it recognises that we all rely on there being a next generation and that everyone should contribute to the cost of creating that generation. Use the funds to fix the UK’s broken, expensive early-years care system."

Ridiculous idea. Like something out of 1984 or Nazi Germany. I don’t want kids and I certainly won’t be paying any ****ing tax for MY choice about MY own reproduction rights. They can shove that idea up their arses.

 

[Machiavelli]

Well at least some threads on politics/economics can remain civil. I'll just add to the recent comments that there are some unlikely bed fellows: both right populists (and the more extreme elements of the identitarian right) and more traditional old school social democrats share some kinship here. Right populist policy in many parts of Europe has been oriented to encouraging more (of course, pure ethnic) births and weighting the fiscal regime and benefit system towards that end. Social democracy went deepest and lives longest in Scandinavia, and they've always had the most generous childcare provisions, although this is for very different reasons -- feminism, equality and long-term labour-oriented measures.
Both are in contrast to the more liberal or neoliberal policy framework most developed in the Anglosphere, where the focus on the individual mitigates against raising the taxation required to pay for such 'planning' -- and they're desperately hostile to planning full stop.

 

[Gwylan]

Fertility rates have been declining for 2 decades across the EU/UK for 20 years (except France), particularly amongst the populace born in the country. Our current 1.58 sits in the middle.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20210323-2

That’s despite childcare provision, parental leave and greater housing supply in apartment blocks on the continent.

Analysis online often mention the reason as a disagreement in couples on when to start a family, also lifestyle choices.

I don't think anyone is saying that the UK is alone in this: Japan has it even worse and, as that map shows, Italy and Spain have real problems.

The falling birthrate is one of the reasons that Merkel took in so many immigrants a couple of years ago ... and why Germany is at the forefront of rehousing Ukrainians