Coronavirus and the USA

[Bozza]

Austin mayor says city has two weeks to change coronavirus trajectory

Austin Mayor Steve Adler said the Texas capital has about two weeks to stem the tide of rising coronavirus cases, and the “messaging war” between state and national leaders could lead to potentially devastating consequences.

We have literally two weeks, if that, to be able to change the trajectory we're on, or we're going to be set at a place that overwhelms our hospitals,” he said to CNN’s Jim Sciutto.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said he’s going to stop listening to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force.

“It's that kind of messaging, it's the messaging also coming out of Washington that's really making for one of our most significant challenges and problems,” Adler said.

“The messaging coming from our lieutenant governor and from Washington is that there isn't a problem, that we shouldn't be wearing masks. It creates a confused message for my community,” Adler said, adding that “this messaging war that we're on right now is not helpful.”

 

[vegster]

Austin mayor says city has two weeks to change coronavirus trajectory

Austin Mayor Steve Adler said the Texas capital has about two weeks to stem the tide of rising coronavirus cases, and the “messaging war” between state and national leaders could lead to potentially devastating consequences.

We have literally two weeks, if that, to be able to change the trajectory we're on, or we're going to be set at a place that overwhelms our hospitals,” he said to CNN’s Jim Sciutto.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said he’s going to stop listening to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force.

“It's that kind of messaging, it's the messaging also coming out of Washington that's really making for one of our most significant challenges and problems,” Adler said.

“The messaging coming from our lieutenant governor and from Washington is that there isn't a problem, that we shouldn't be wearing masks. It creates a confused message for my community,” Adler said, adding that “this messaging war that we're on right now is not helpful.”

I'm confused by that too.

 

[Weststander]

Trump‘s incompetence and Alt Right laissez faire attitude to “Kung-Flu”, whilst killing 10,000’s of fellow Americans, has inadvertently and conclusively proved that the lockdowns across Europe, the Far East and Canada were THE only way to contain the deadly virus.

Conspiracy theorists (including in the UK) that covid is all bollocks, take note. You were wrong.

 

[Bozza]

A really nice site, from the founders of Instagram bizarrely, that tracks the R value in different states.

https://rt.live

The filter on the right (on desktop at least) shows some interesting things, eg:

and you can also drill into each state too:

https://rt.live/us/FL

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

A really nice site, from the founders of Instagram bizarrely, that tracks the R value in different states.

https://rt.live

The filter on the right (on desktop at least) shows some interesting things, eg:

and you can also drill into each state too:

https://rt.live/us/FL

That is nice - thanks for posting.

I was intrigued by the last two sets of R values by state (now and a couple of weeks ago). In the last couple of weeks the rank order of R values from one state to the next has remained constant. That can only happen if there are large numbers of cases (the smaller the number the more variable the R from day to day - as we saw in Germany recently) and the rules, behaviours and rates of transmission between states has remained constant within them. But some states have very low numbers, and the rates and direction of travel in new infections between states is far from constant. So I don't get it.

Also the standard error (or whatever measure of variance is indicated - the 'bars' above and below the means) is getting bigger in time. I don't understand that at all because it means the level of uncertainty in the R calculation is increasing, when in fact it should decrease. The explanation is that the calculation of R is not primarily based on the latest data, except right now. Today's data in 2 weeks will be different. This can be the case only if R it is being moderated by modelling.

That and the constant rank order between states suggests that someone is doing some modelling here that may not be appropriate.....

Maybe that's why Florida (sorry!) looks not too bad on the R score figure (compared with some other states), and yet is a serious problem state, as well you know (whereas in some of the other states with higher Rs the actual numbers of cases is much lower).

The new UK gov system of red free and amber is most likely to render all of the US and Brazil as red (no travel), albeit this latest UKgov wheeze has little predictive value other than its ability to create uncertainty and cosnternation. My guess is both your Florida trip and my trip to North Devon (August for us) are quite uncertain. I am not looking in the shed for my lilo jut yet. All the best

 

[Bozza]

That is nice - thanks for posting.

I was intrigued by the last two sets of R values by state (now and a couple of weeks ago). In the last couple of weeks the rank order of R values from one state to the next has remained constant.

The order of the states doesn't change regardless of which timeframe you choose - they are locked in the "Latest" position. That becomes most apparent if you select "3 months ago".

There is some variation between latest and 2 weeks ago that would change their order but it's quite minor, eg

Latest: Texas (1.16) - Delaware (1.17) - Arizona (1.17) - West Virginia (1.18)
2 Weeks Ago: Texas (1.16) - Delaware (1.15) - Arizona (1.15) - West Virginia (1.17)

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The order of the states doesn't change regardless of which timeframe you choose - they are locked in the "Latest" position. That becomes most apparent if you select "3 months ago".

There is some variation between latest and 2 weeks ago that would change their order but it's quite minor, eg

Latest: Texas (1.16) - Delaware (1.17) - Arizona (1.17) - West Virginia (1.18)
2 Weeks Ago: Texas (1.16) - Delaware (1.15) - Arizona (1.15) - West Virginia (1.17)

Ah, OK. I didn't look closely enough. A recurrent fault of mine

 

[Bozza]

A pretty frightening read at the car crash happening over there...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-hospitalizations-rates-rise/index.html

 

[The Spanish]

Thanks Bozza, definitely a weird time with no sign of improvement really. Florida and the more republican leaning places are really in trouble as they see masks or any instruction at all as such an 'assault on their freedoms' that they flat out won't get with it, and they're just screwing themselves. It's crazy but also pretty sad to watch, honestly.

Here in California, Orange County (the one below LA) put a 'suggested' mask rule in place, not even mandatory - the health officer for the county was forced out of her job after protests by the right wingers/anti mask/anti everything crowd. She had to resign and the new officer rescinded the order. That was about a month ago and now it's one of the bigger spikes in the country and they're talking about hospital capacities etc all over again. Total madness.

vast majority of Florida cases are in the tri county area which is far more democrat and one of the most highly urbanised parts of the country. There is a vast difference in attitudes on this in Miami than Jacksonville or Pensacola.

 

[Swansman]

Just noticed this on my news feed, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

Bad luck for the rest of us eh ?

Whenever someone has mentioned the US, I've said "just nuke it and get rid of it" since I was about five years old. The world should have listened.

 

[Machiavelli]

10,000 new cases in Florida announced today

 

[Weststander]

10,000 new cases in Florida announced today

To benchmark, Italy and the UK both peaked at 5,500 (daily rate, on a 7 day moving average), with populations 3 times greater than Florida‘s.

It’s interesting as to why Florida, California and Texas aren’t each experiencing 10,000’s deaths. If this because many of those testing positive are in non-elderly age groups, picked up through mass testing? Or is there a deaths time bomb to come?

 

[AZ Gull]

Whenever someone has mentioned the US, I've said "just nuke it and get rid of it" since I was about five years old. The world should have listened.

Cheers

 

[The Spanish]

10,000 new cases in Florida announced today

Also mandatory mask wearing for anyone over two years old in any public space in miami dade and Broward as of today - indoors and out.

Florida may be a red state - however all very well everyone implying Florida’s full of redneck reckless loons but the vast majority of the cases are in urban democrat tri county area with a very different demographic and a population that’s seen it’s tourism and the cruise industry decimated but have still worked very hard to keep this down. This Florida bashing is an odd narrative. Far more complex than laughing at Florida Man on twitter.

 

[vegster]

To benchmark, Italy and the UK both peaked at 5,500 (daily rate, on a 7 day moving average), with populations 3 times greater than Florida‘s.

It’s interesting as to why Florida, California and Texas aren’t each experiencing 10,000’s deaths. If this because many of those testing positive are in non-elderly age groups, picked up through mass testing? Or is there a deaths time bomb to come?

Some interesting points there. I'm not up to it but it might be worth looking at population/area comparisons for the UK, Spain and Italy compared to say, Florida and California, the bug spreads fastest where it has a high, fairly dense population. Looking at the ratios it might show that those US states are worse than the UK, Spain and Italy or better simply down to population density.

Also, and this is the really complicated bit, US health care is very polarised and can be absolutely excellent if you have the right insurance cover or almost non-existent if you have none, then throw in the BAME factor that tends towards a higher prevalence of infections and fatalities and we might have an answer.... As for the time bomb.. I think the US will get one for sure, the fatalities tent to lag 10-14 days after infection and as the specialist facilities get overwhelmed I think its fair to say its coming sadly.

 

[Bozza]

To benchmark, Italy and the UK both peaked at 5,500 (daily rate, on a 7 day moving average), with populations 3 times greater than Florida‘s.

It’s interesting as to why Florida, California and Texas aren’t each experiencing 10,000’s deaths. If this because many of those testing positive are in non-elderly age groups, picked up through mass testing? Or is there a deaths time bomb to come?

I read a piece on CNN today that explains the lower death rates, thus far...


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/...ovid-19-infections-spike-sepkowitz/index.html

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Whenever someone has mentioned the US, I've said "just nuke it and get rid of it" since I was about five years old. The world should have listened.

Idiotic. There are other worse countries than USA out there. Shall we nuke those also?

 

[The Spanish]

To benchmark, Italy and the UK both peaked at 5,500 (daily rate, on a 7 day moving average), with populations 3 times greater than Florida‘s.

It’s interesting as to why Florida, California and Texas aren’t each experiencing 10,000’s deaths. If this because many of those testing positive are in non-elderly age groups, picked up through mass testing? Or is there a deaths time bomb to come?

Florida was initially testing over 55s and specific high risk groups initially. I am no statistician but the morbidity rates on that are surely bound to be higher than if testing is widened to include healthy and younger people. That doesn’t need much thought to work out, really can’t work out why this sort of analysis is at the margins of Covid discussion.

 

[nicko31]

Idiotic. There are other worse countries than USA out there. Shall we nuke those also?

Think he's just try to seek attention. The USA is a great country, just happens to have a very bad leader right now

 

[Weststander]

Florida was initially testing over 55s and specific high risk groups initially. I am no statistician but the morbidity rates on that are surely bound to be higher than if testing is widened to include healthy and younger people. That doesn’t need much thought to work out, really can’t work out why this sort of analysis is at the margins of Covid discussion.

Quite a few very pertinent metrics and analyses have been marginalised or seemingly disregarded throughout. For example, other than the FT total excess mortality stats (for some nations only), for months it was hard to source those key stats. Even then it’s very imperfect with some countries such as the UK tending to be just a few days behind on releasing that data, some other countries far further back. I get the impression that it will be the end of 2020 before the global public will get to find key facts.