Civil War Brewing in the Ukraine?

[Uncle Buck]

That's the thing, it's very easy to 'side' with the protesters, but you have to remember that the entire other half of the country are pro-government (on the whole).
[MENTION=238]Uncle Buck[/MENTION], yes, silly mistake.

The more I am reading, most of the country is anti the constitutional changes the government pushed through.

Presuming this Government gets thrown out, the problems could then kick in, as there will be disagreements as to what direction the place goes.

 

[Blue3]

I will be going to the Ukraine in June!

 

[Uncle Buck]

We've seen this all before - Bosnia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia - it's going to end in war.

Yugoslavia was a created country due to the Treaty of Versailles. It resulted in several nations that hated each other falling under one umbrella and then through in different religions. Factor in that one world war had started due to actions in that region, it was never going to end well.

Whilst Ukraine has until 1991 generally been part of greater Russia for a few hundred years, most people there do consider themselves Ukrainian (Crimea apart), even if some are more pro Russian.

So in theory it should not go the way of the Balkans.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Unless they go in by sea, it is a fair land ride from Russia to the Crimea.

I suspect they would not put troops in, there will be a lot of sabre rattling from Moscow, but it is not like interfering in Georgia, too many NATO countries too close to the Ukraine for Moscow to run the risk of all out war.

Well yes, they wouldn't come from the north but across the narrow water separating Crimea from Russia to the east. It's only about 250 miles from Sochi to Crimea, and the water divide very narrow

 

[Uncle Buck]

Well yes, they wouldn't come from the north but across the narrow water separating Crimea from Russia to the east. It's only about 250 miles from Sochi to Crimea, and the water divide very narrow

There is also the issue that it is not an easy region to take. The Germans had real issues taking Sevastopol in 41/42 and the Russians lost around 200k taking it back in 44/45.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Well lets just hope Putin hasn't got his eye on Crimea or any part of Ukraine and that isn't his endgame.

 

[red star portslade]

Brilliant. And anyone who thinks there's no room for jokes on a serious thread can Crimea river.

This is no laughing matter - Marx my words.

 

[daveinprague]

No problems in our club, but generally, I would imagine they are mostly anti government..

 

[vegster]

Ukraine- How long before Putin "comes to the rescue " ?

I fear that now the Olympics is winding down things are going to get pretty bad for Ukrainians. Putin has already grumbled about "terrorists " and " western agents " stoking up non existent anger at the somewhat dodgy Ukrainian president. I give it 6 days before the tanks roll in to defend the Ukraine from us western saboteurs.

 

[Seagull on the wing]

Beat me too it,was just about to post this...again it's the state against the people...Ukrainians should have their wish....just as we should have with our dispute with the EU.

 

[glasfryn]

riding stripped to the waste on his trusty white steed
he is just waiting in the wings
always has been
always will be ..............a very sinister man

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Russian tanks will roll into Crimea if it declares independence I fear.

'Peacekeepers' of course.


This is all orchestrated by Putin, he's just on his 'best behaviour' until after the Olympics.

It could be even worse if Yanukovich himself asks for Russian assistance.


Heavy sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs - seize their billions that are banked in the West - and things could change.

 

[jakarta]

There is nothing that the UK do about this on our own and yet again it proves that the EU are spineless and useless in these situations.

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

The situation in Ukraine now seems very precarious. The blatant shootings by both sides has taken this to a new level, making it that much harder to row back from their positions. Plus the disorder is now spreading across the country.

Doesn't help that the West and Russia are at odds. The West has already announced sanctions. Unfortunately by the time the UN get their peace keeping act together it will be too late.

I suspect you are right, the Russians will not tolerate this right on their doorsteps and I fear Putin will demand a show of strength, not only to crush the protesters but also to warn off similar states like Belarus - plus show the West that Russia is not to be messed with.

Unfortunately the ripples from this also have potential to spread if Russia decides cut off oil and gas supplies to the West. This could get very messy. I hope sense prevails.

 

[vegster]

I worry that when there was the gradual erosion of communism in Eastern Europe the likes of Gorbachev and Yeltsin took no action and let events and the people decide the outcome. However, Putin's much vaunted macho image of defender of Russia will not tolerate one of the few remaining friendly neighbours changing their voting habits. This could be VERY bad.

 

[jakarta]

I worry that when there was the gradual erosion of communism in Eastern Europe the likes of Gorbachev and Yeltsin took no action and let events and the people decide the outcome. However, Putin's much vaunted macho image of defender of Russia will not tolerate one of the few remaining friendly neighbours changing their voting habits. This could be VERY bad.

I must have lived through a different 1989 to you - there was no 'gradual erosion of communism' - it fell apart in weeks!

And what is your problem with people deciding the outcome of how they want to live?

Totally agree that Putin is a c*nt - what else would you expect from an ex KGB Man?

 

[somerset]

I give it 6 days before the tanks roll in to defend the Ukraine from us western saboteurs.

How do you think they will manage that then?....they can't control the upheaval and holocaust that has been on the go in Chechnya for 25 years..... I think you have a serious overestimation of the ability and capacity of the Russian system that is under attack from within in the same way as Ukraine is.

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

I must have lived through a different 1989 to you - there was no 'gradual erosion of communism' - it fell apart in weeks!

And what is your problem with people deciding the outcome of how they want to live?

Totally agree that Putin is a c*nt - what else would you expect from an ex KGB Man?

I suspect that Putin's attitudes still resonate with a large portion of Russians, it is not an enlightened country. His powerbase also depends on corruption and fear. It would be interesting to see what would happen if a proper democratic opposition ever challenged Putin's authority. I suspect the reaction would be more ruthless than in Ukraine.

 

[seagull_in_malaysia]

Is it not a bit hypocritical for the EU to back the opposition who are trying to topple a (afaik) democratically elected leader? Regardless of my opinions of either side it does seem like the EU are going against their "world message of democracy" in retaliation to Ukraine backing out of EU-membership talks.

Not sure where I sit on this one.

 

[beorhthelm]

im not familar with the whole story, but as i gather it, to do so would be detrimental - it would be tauntamount to invasion. unless the Ukraine President asks for assistance, which would be in effect a vote of no confidence in himself and government. Russian involvement would galvanise the opposition, stir up the middle ground to pick a side and split the country.