Civil War Brewing in the Ukraine?

[Czechmate]

not sure where this idea is coming from. the EU is not very interested in the Ukraine for exactly the reason you give and there's little appetite to be eating off Russia's plate. they aren't ready and if they were, they are behind Turkey in the queue. now Ukrainians, at least western ones, want to join the EU, but its not reciprocated.

Agreed , I think it was big words to start with and a sort of warning to Russia , but Russia know what's what and now things have settled and the EU realise it is not now a good idea to help them out for the own reasons . Shame really , no one is thinking of the people of Ukraine , although a lot of people I know in Ukraine just want peace and get on with their lives , whether under EU or Russian influence .

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Ukraine back from the brink at the moment. Putin due to give speach, the analysis will be interesting.

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

From this side of the world (and we are rather closer to the combatants here) the situation looks very depressing. How is this different from Czech 1938? German people in Sudentenland felt they were not beign represented and felt they should be part of germany. A strongman in Germany decided he agreed with them and marched in to protect them.

The second world war is only 70 years ago and it seems the memory is already dimming. Putin can afford (like Hitler in 1938) to pull back now as he has pretty much got what he wanted.... saftey for his military ports in the Black Sea.... which is what this is really all about.

Appeasment seems to be back on the agenda for western countries... just so they can keep their money in their pockets.

 

[vegster]

Ukraine back from the brink at the moment. Putin due to give speach, the analysis will be interesting.

It maybe that he has proved his point. He can intimidate Ukraine to the point of war and do pretty much as he likes in Crimea and is able to rouse Russian " Self Defence " forces when necessary in order to blockade strategic buildings and sites in East Ukraine. Putin has also shown that the West is powerless to stop him when he decides what he wants to do plus, it goes well in his ratings at home that he is standing up for the "Oppressed " Russians in the Ukraine and by extension, Crimea.

This is the equivalent to conducting negotiations with a loaded gun on Putin's side of the table. Amazing to think that I lived through the Cold War, saw the decline of communism and Stalin-ism in Eastern Europe and Russia, witnessed the first attempts at democracy in Russia and now have gone back to what it was like before. I'm afraid that as long as Putin wants to, he will control Russia as his own fiefdom with a cowed population.

 

[Trufflehound]

I've only just learned that Nikita Krushchev was half-Ukrainian. That might explain why he gifted the historically Russian Crimea to Ukraine in the first place, hence indirectly causing the current mess.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Putin just said no more need to send troops further into Ukraine.

A deal has been done behind the scenes I reckon.

Of course he has said 'reserve the right to use force' etc. but that's surely just strong rhetoric to reinforce his bargaining position.

I wonder what has gone on ?

 

[RowleyBirkinQ.C(deceased)]

On a lighter note, the headline on the front of the sun reads "Surrender or I'll invade" Which after a brief discussion at work, several of my colleagues have decided to employ this as their new chat up line

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

President Putin: "Our actions are often described by the West as not legitimate, but look at US operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

Yes, but ...... but ....... but .......

 

[On the Left Wing]

President Putin: "Our actions are often described by the West as not legitimate, but look at US operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

Yes, but ...... but ....... but .......

Agree... my thoughts (I am no apologist for the Soviet Union or Russia, but probably too left wing for most NSCers!)

http://seagullnic.wordpress.com/2014/03/04/ive-learned-to-hate-russians-all-through-my-whole-life/

 

[Triggaaar]

So to me the attitude is f--k the Ukraine people we want to consider our own benefits first

the EU realise it is not now a good idea to help them out for the own reasons . Shame really , no one is thinking of the people of Ukraine

What do you think they should do? There's not a lot they can do to protect the people of Ukraine. Would you have then start another world war?

The second world war is only 70 years ago and it seems the memory is already dimming. Putin can afford (like Hitler in 1938) to pull back now as he has pretty much got what he wanted.... saftey for his military ports in the Black Sea.... which is what this is really all about.

Appeasment seems to be back on the agenda for western countries... just so they can keep their money in their pockets.

So on the one hand, you think that the memory of the second world war is dimming, but on the other hand you think western countries just want to keep their money in their pockets. Do you want another world war, or peace?

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

President Putin: "Our actions are often described by the West as not legitimate, but look at US operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

Yes, but ...... but ....... but .......

Quite. Putin is conveniently overlooking that the West made some effort to legitimise its actions and gain approval by the UN Security Council and/or for international monitors to observe and often significantly delayed making a more timely intervention while it gathered some form of consensus.

Yet only months ago Putin resisted Western calls for intervention in Syria 'decisions affecting war and peace should only happen by consensus.......the law is still the law and must follow it whether we like it or not'.

 

[Stoo82]

I've only just learned that Nikita Krushchev was half-Ukrainian. That might explain why he gifted the historically Russian Crimea to Ukraine in the first place, hence indirectly causing the current mess.

Don't forget, at the time Ukraine and Russia were under control of the Soviet Union and the transfer of territory would have been irrelevant.

 

[Trufflehound]

Don't forget, at the time Ukraine and Russia were under control of the Soviet Union and the transfer of territory would have been irrelevant.

Not totally irrelevant. Just because they were all under one central authoritarian rule, didn't mean that the Russians didn't consider themselves to be Russian, and the Ukrainians Ukrainian, etc. From what I read the transfer did raise a few eyebrows at the time, even if that was all.

 

[Greavsey]

From this side of the world (and we are rather closer to the combatants here) the situation looks very depressing. How is this different from Czech 1938? German people in Sudentenland felt they were not beign represented and felt they should be part of germany. A strongman in Germany decided he agreed with them and marched in to protect them.

The second world war is only 70 years ago and it seems the memory is already dimming. Putin can afford (like Hitler in 1938) to pull back now as he has pretty much got what he wanted.... saftey for his military ports in the Black Sea.... which is what this is really all about.

Appeasment seems to be back on the agenda for western countries... just so they can keep their money in their pockets.

My thoughts exactly, alarmingly similar situation!

 

[Czechmate]

What do you think they should do? There's not a lot they can do to protect the people of Ukraine. Would you have then start another world war?

I don't mean military help , I mean investment . Russians have invested heavily in Ukraine so should the EU if they are serious about helping them out , unfortunately it was all talk to start with , now the EU realise it will not be beneficial for one reason or another , I guess we will know more after the EU meeting on Thursday.

 

[Triggaaar]

I don't mean military help , I mean investment . Russians have invested heavily in Ukraine so should the EU if they are serious about helping them out

So what are you suggesting are the probable outcomes if a) the EU doesn't invest in the Ukraine, and b) if it does?

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Just seen a video of stand off with shots fired by Russians into the air - both sides trying to talk the other down.

Quite incredible really.

 

[SULLY COULDNT SHOOT]

What do you think they should do? There's not a lot they can do to protect the people of Ukraine. Would you have then start another world war?

So on the one hand, you think that the memory of the second world war is dimming, but on the other hand you think western countries just want to keep their money in their pockets. Do you want another world war, or peace?

There aren't two hands here. The memory is dimming so we are slipping back into appesement for the sake of keeping our money safe e.g. cheap gas. Do I want another war no but that was exactly hamberlain's argument... it was clear war was inevitable. If you look at Putin record in the last few years and his responses pover the last few days it is clear that he's is going to keep pushing until soemone threatens him... just like Hiyler in 1938 and if it isn't done soon we are goign to be abck in the same sceneario... today Crimea... tomorrow... Poland (and no I actually dont think it will be Poland as that WOULD start the way... but how about Bielorus or Georgia?)

 

[Triggaaar]

If you look at Putin record in the last few years and his responses pover the last few days it is clear that he's is going to keep pushing until soemone threatens him...

So you think he'll stop if he's threatened? What threats do you think are needed to make him stop?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Putin: Big, big win, Crimea gained, can still influence Ukraine with economic policies. Looks strong, shores up position in Russia. No cost.

Ukraine: Slight win if Putin stays out further. Yanukovich and corrupted Government run by Oligarchs kicked out. Chance for new democratic government, and constitution with economic ties to EU in time. Loss of Crimea - how important is that really to the ukrainian people ( no idea ).

EU: Fairly neutral.

Obama: Slight loss, looks weak. Obviously made some sort of deal with Putin.


People say there were no military options but there were - it would have involved heavily arming the Ukrainian army across the Polish border, high tech air defences in the west of Ukraine, deployment of the NATO rapid reaction force and support in Lviv and Kiev, no fly zone west of the dnipro river etc. In short sufficient 'stick' to go along with the 'carrot' of Putin getting Crimea.

A secret deal was made, no doubt.