China's reported coronavirus cases and deaths

[Solid at the back]

If you haven't done already please take a read through this piece.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/03/why-weren-t-we-ready

Harry Lambert is a brilliant young journalist and has been very careful here, not to apportion political blame. However it is clear the UK government(s) were aware of the likelihood and impact of a pandemic and the lack of critical infrastructure in such an event, but chose not to plan for what was deemed the highest level national threat.

In this context it doesn't really matter where this one came from, or where the next one will emerge from, lessons need to be learnt rather than just looking to blame Johnny Foreigner.

Oh, I'm not just blaming China. I believe the UK govt is as much, if not more to blame for the outbreak in this country.

The little information coming out of China in January was, I'm my view, more then enough reason to act back then. Travel should of been restricted and 21 day quarantine should of been mandatory to anyone entering the country.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Oh, I'm not just blaming China. I believe the UK govt is as much, if not more to blame for the outbreak in this country.

The little information coming out of China in January was, I'm my view, more then enough reason to act back then. Travel should of been restricted and 21 day quarantine should of been mandatory to anyone entering the country.

I'm still not sure how we punish China. Reports yesterday of a plane load of medical protection equipment headed for France, being diverted on the runway after the US buyers offered 3-4x as much for the same equipment. The world has become addicted to cheap manufacturing. The only low cost manufacturers we seem to be punishing so far is textile manufacturers in Bangladesh, who are going bust left right and centre, after a number of UK suppliers reneged on deals.

 

[Triggaaar]

I Skyped a colleage in China 2 weeks ago, and am in more recent touch with someone else who lives there (Chinese mother, English father); they both think the disease is under control and the numbers we have been given are realistic.

But how would they know they are realistic? How are they verifying them?

The UK has now passed the number of deaths in China, but most of us haven't actually seen anything that would cause alarm. Mrs T works for the NHS and all is fine there. Yet in China, where it was clear from the video reports at the time, the shit really hit the fan and people couldn't get help, and we're to believe that they've had fewer deaths than us, despite having 20 times the population. It's just not credible.

 

[beorhthelm]

Oh, I'm not just blaming China. I believe the UK govt is as much, if not more to blame for the outbreak in this country.

The little information coming out of China in January was, I'm my view, more then enough reason to act back then. Travel should of been restricted and 21 day quarantine should of been mandatory to anyone entering the country.

lack of travel restictions seem to be the biggest culprit for spread, not China, and something we could have done more on early on. its no point trying to blame one country though when every other country sat on their hands for a month.

 

[CheeseRolls]

But how would they know they are realistic? How are they verifying them?

The UK has now passed the number of deaths in China, but most of us haven't actually seen anything that would cause alarm. Mrs T works for the NHS and all is fine there. Yet in China, where it was clear from the video reports at the time, the shit really hit the fan and people couldn't get help, and we're to believe that they've had fewer deaths than us, despite having 20 times the population. It's just not credible.

Where does Mrs T work though?

Sussex gets lumped in with Surrey and Hampshire, in terms of regional reporting. The impact has been far greater in both of these counties. The South East in general is insignificant compared to cases in London, where there are reports of hospitals struggling.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

But how would they know they are realistic? How are they verifying them?

The UK has now passed the number of deaths in China, but most of us haven't actually seen anything that would cause alarm. Mrs T works for the NHS and all is fine there. Yet in China, where it was clear from the video reports at the time, the shit really hit the fan and people couldn't get help, and we're to believe that they've had fewer deaths than us, despite having 20 times the population. It's just not credible.

Yes. I retracted my comment later. I don't know what is fact about this. Nobody does.

 

[Solid at the back]

lack of travel restictions seem to be the biggest culprit for spread, not China, and something we could have done more on early on. its no point trying to blame one country though when every other country sat on their hands for a month.

I'm not just blaming China. I blame our Govt as much as China and the corrupt WHO.

 

[bluenitsuj]

Are their numbers just completely made up?

Ye 100%.

 

[bluenitsuj]

Well, at least one person is speaking sense on this thread. I'd add in there that, on the whole, WHO have praised China's response.

The WHO are puppets for China. China originally said it could not be spread person to person so WHO went along with it. All this despite Taiwan ( whom WHO refuse to acknowledge) providing clear evidence that it was being spread person to person.

 

[middletoenail]

When it kicked off in Asia, everyone started wearing masks, in fact in most places you weren't allowed out in the streets or entry into establishments without one. But in the UK we are too cool for school and we ridiculed anyone wearing masks.

When China went into lockdown, it did just that. No exercise outside once a day nonsense, key workers were that, key workers and weren't trying to game the system. These are major differences.

 

[RossyG]

Do/did we ridicule people in Britain for wearing masks, though?

I've seen Orientals do it an always thought it seemed like a good idea. Never heard anyone say it was silly.

 

[Triggaaar]

Where does Mrs T work though?

Brighton, and yes I know it's not as busy here as elsewhere.

Sussex gets lumped in with Surrey and Hampshire, in terms of regional reporting. The impact has been far greater in both of these counties. The South East in general is insignificant compared to cases in London, where there are reports of hospitals struggling.

I know it's London where some hospitals are closer to their limit, but there is still capacity for more patients, as it's not difficult to use a different London hospital when another is full. It's nothing like the chaos we saw in China. Yet we're to believe we've had more deaths from the disease than they have? It just seems incredibly far fetched.

 

[Triggaaar]

When it kicked off in Asia, everyone started wearing masks

Have you got a date for when that happened in China, and what their number of cases was at the time?

When China went into lockdown, it did just that. No exercise outside once a day nonsense, key workers were that, key workers and weren't trying to game the system.

Yes, but again, do you have the number of infections in China when they went into lockdown? It had already spread across China before they locked down Wuhan, and it later spread across the rest of the country before they locked down the other cities.

 

[sparkie]

When it kicked off in Asia, everyone started wearing masks, in fact in most places you weren't allowed out in the streets or entry into establishments without one. But in the UK we are too cool for school and we ridiculed anyone wearing masks.

When China went into lockdown, it did just that. No exercise outside once a day nonsense, key workers were that, key workers and weren't trying to game the system. These are major differences.

I had to pick someone up from the airport who had insisted I wear a mask.

I felt like an absolute goon.

 

[beorhthelm]

Have you got a date for when that happened in China, and what their number of cases was at the time?

Yes, but again, do you have the number of infections in China when they went into lockdown? It had already spread across China before they locked down Wuhan, and it later spread across the rest of the country before they locked down the other cities.

you can time line data here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns#Lockdown_timeline

and raw count data here https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases

 

[Triggaaar]

you can time line data here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns#Lockdown_timeline

and raw count data here https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases

Thanks.

A summary of some dates and figures:

21 January - estimates of infections in Wuhan of between 1,300 and 1,700.

23 January, transport in Wuhan, Huanggang and Ezhou severely restricted
24 January, travel restrictions enacted in 12 additional prefecture-level cities in Hubei

13 February, Hubei reported newly confirmed cases of 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242. This was due to the change in definition that included clinical (radiological) diagnosis of patients.

13 February, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 20 February.

17 February, Xiaogan now bans all its urban residents from leaving home, all its rural residents from wandering, visiting neighbours, and gathering, and all vehicles from roads

20 February, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, and all schools in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 10 March.


So there were many thousands of cases in Hubai in January, but non-essential companies weren't shut down until mid-February. And the rest of China didn't face similar restrictions until later. That was well after the horse had bolted. So regardless of how good their lockdowns may or may not be, they were too late to prevent tens of thousands of deaths.

 

[vegster]

Thanks.

A summary of some dates and figures:

21 January - estimates of infections in Wuhan of between 1,300 and 1,700.

23 January, transport in Wuhan, Huanggang and Ezhou severely restricted
24 January, travel restrictions enacted in 12 additional prefecture-level cities in Hubei

13 February, Hubei reported newly confirmed cases of 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242. This was due to the change in definition that included clinical (radiological) diagnosis of patients.

13 February, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 20 February.

17 February, Xiaogan now bans all its urban residents from leaving home, all its rural residents from wandering, visiting neighbours, and gathering, and all vehicles from roads

20 February, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, and all schools in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 10 March.


So there were many thousands of cases in Hubai in January, but non-essential companies weren't shut down until mid-February. And the rest of China didn't face similar restrictions until later. That was well after the horse had bolted. So regardless of how good their lockdowns may or may not be, they were too late to prevent tens of thousands of deaths.

I think that pattern of trying to muddle through and deal with it without buggering the economy up has been repeated across the globe, countries thinking that it will not be too bad then wallop ! It hits. The US is a prime example, they had plenty of warning, they saw it coming, Trump did not want to risk the economy, risk his chance of a second term. He could have acted but chose not too and downplayed the virus until too late. The state of New York has had a smidge under 10,000 new cases today and as a country, they are in serious trouble.

 

[Barham's tash]

When it kicked off in Asia, everyone started wearing masks, in fact in most places you weren't allowed out in the streets or entry into establishments without one. But in the UK we are too cool for school and we ridiculed anyone wearing masks.

When China went into lockdown, it did just that. No exercise outside once a day nonsense, key workers were that, key workers and weren't trying to game the system. These are major differences.

Probably the most effective method for them, IF the numbers were true, was their contact and trace tactic which saw large numbers of people tracked down bundled into vans and forced into government isolation.

Here we haven’t even bothered to test let alone undertake contact tracing so it’s plausible our numbers are going to be materially worse despite the relative size of countries.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think that pattern of trying to muddle through and deal with it without buggering the economy up has been repeated across the globe, countries thinking that it will not be too bad then wallop ! It hits.

And I think part of the reason that countries have believed that they can muddle through, is because China has lied about their number of deaths. They've made it look like it wasn't as bad as it is.

The US is a prime example, they had plenty of warning, they saw it coming

Well yes, that's Trump for you.

 

[carlzeiss]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmsqeFAlSGA