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cheltenham betting













withdeanwombat

Well-known member
Feb 17, 2005
8,731
Somersetshire
Is "looking at a bit of value" the same as sticking a pin in and punting on an outsider ?
 




Barry Izbak

U.T.A.
Dec 7, 2005
7,421
Lancing By Sea
Is "looking at a bit of value" the same as sticking a pin in and punting on an outsider ?

:lolol: a bit like having a fiver on El-Abd being the first scorer tonight

A boring old boy I used to work with used to delight in always saying "A short priced winner is better than a long priced loser"
Boring, but hard to argue with
 


Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
Stunning morning in the west country. Just off to walk the course, will report back on conditions if anyone's interested.
 






Durlston

"You plonker, Rodney!"
Jul 15, 2009
10,017
Haywards Heath
I'm just going to do a couple of value each-way horses today.

Most years in the past i've done my bollocks first day and try to chase losses for the rest of the festival. It's like shagging, i get all excited and fire off my ammunition far too early.:blush:
 


jezzer

Active member
Jul 18, 2003
755
eastbourne
I`m more a flat man than jumps but that Dunguib looks the fanny of the week for the bookmakers. Paddy Power are refunding all losing bets on that race if you back something else and Dunguib wins, so you can be sure they definitely do not fancy this horse at all and will get it beaten. If i was flush id be laying it on betfair.

The best chance for backing a winner today is in the last at Southwell, City Stable, very eyecatching run last time over 2f shorter and looks to have been saved for a Michael Wigham Cheltenham week special, having said all that at 7-4 the bookies arent asleep with the price.
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,295
Back in Sussex
I`m more a flat man than jumps but that Dunguib looks the fanny of the week for the bookmakers. Paddy Power are refunding all losing bets on that race if you back something else and Dunguib wins, so you can be sure they definitely do not fancy this horse at all and will get it beaten.

Bookies can not 'get a horse beaten' nomatter how much they don't fancy it.
 






8ace

Banned
Jul 21, 2003
23,811
Brighton
Bookies can not 'get a horse beaten' nomatter how much they don't fancy it.

Indeed, probably just a good way to attract custom at the start of the festival. If people do get their money refunded chances are they won't withdraw it and end up betting (and losing) it over the rest of the meeting.
 


jezzer

Active member
Jul 18, 2003
755
eastbourne
I realise they cant KNOW its going to lose, what I mean is, when bookmakers make this sort of offer which looks like if Dunguib wins they will be paying out on the winner and repaying the losers that theyll end up with a whopping loss overall, it is amazing how many times these offers go their way.

Which means they have at least 2 or 3 horses in there that their compilers/form study chaps/spies think have a great chance of getting that fav beat. They wouldnt offer it otherwise and when they do this I always take the hint.
 




Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
Oh yes (you lucky sod).

I know, though I never mind getting the odd reminder.

The official description is good to soft, good in places, but I'm not sure where he got the "to soft" bit from. Pretty much good all round I reckon, and only heading one way in these conditions.
 














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