[Albion] Chelsea odds on tomorrow.

[Machiavelli]

How did you arrive at 58%, I don't understand the numbers?

It has been explained very clearly in the post you're responding to

 

[KZNSeagull]

How did you arrive at 58%, I don't understand the numbers?

In the same way that a team has a 50% chance of winning when the odds are Evens (or 2 in Decimal odds), if the odds of a team to win are 8/11 (or 1.725 in Decimal), that equates to a 58% chance of them actually winning.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

Actually I think there could be plenty to chuckle about (courtesy of Comedy Cucurella mainly)but just not the result.

Unfortunately he’s suspended after picking up a 5th yellow of the season against Newcastle.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Should be beating teams like Chelsea

 

[Sheebo]

They should thrash us every game with their budgets. In fact, given budgets they’d be 1/12 to win tomo but it just shows how shit they have been considering / how good we’ve been.

 

[Algernon]

Unfortunately he’s suspended after picking up a 5th yellow of the season against Newcastle.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

In the same way that a team has a 50% chance of winning when the odds are Evens (or 2 in Decimal odds), if the odds of a team to win are 8/11 (or 1.725 in Decimal), that equates to a 58% chance of them actually winning.

Right, 2 is evens....I can work that out now. Ta for explaining

 

[Triggaaar]

Cheer up everyone....its like a morgue on rhis thread.

People are happy with our result in Athens, but they're being realistic about our chances tomorrow. Our players are either knackered or injured or suspended and we're away to a decent team. Realistically, we have **** all chance.

 

[empire]

I thought we'd get battered at forest we didnt

 

[Berty23]

Newcastles injury list is broadly on par with ours too

I disagree with this. If Newcastle were to pick their strongest side then I expect it would contain
Pope (now injured but started yesterday)
Tino liv (cost 40 million and clear upgrade on burn. Gutted we did not get him)
Schar
Trippier
Joelinton
Bruno
Gordon
Almiron
Isak

So that is 9 of strongest side available. I have Botman missing (replaced by club captain) and a central midfielder instead of the kid.

Whereas we are likely missing the following first choice players (provided two when not sure who is first choice which shows even second choice is broken rather than bringing in club captain)

Estupinian
Mitoma
March
Pedro/fati
Ferguson/welbeck

Obviously dunk suspended and I would pick lamptey as best right back.

It is not just the number of injuries that needs to be considered but where they are. We are possibly missing our first choice front 4 and two of the obvious back ups.

 

[Midget]

If the team is one-tenth as knackered as I am, were loose

Right, I've done my post-Athens recovery, got my away day mojo on and I'd like to change my response.

If the team is one-tenth as knackered as I am, we might do this.

Maybe.

 

[tstanbur]

I disagree with this. If Newcastle were to pick their strongest side then I expect it would contain
Pope (now injured but started yesterday)
Tino liv (cost 40 million and clear upgrade on burn. Gutted we did not get him)
Schar
Trippier
Joelinton
Bruno
Gordon
Almiron
Isak

So that is 9 of strongest side available. I have Botman missing (replaced by club captain) and a central midfielder instead of the kid.

Whereas we are likely missing the following first choice players (provided two when not sure who is first choice which shows even second choice is broken rather than bringing in club captain)

Estupinian
Mitoma
March
Pedro/fati
Ferguson/welbeck

Obviously dunk suspended and I would pick lamptey as best right back.

It is not just the number of injuries that needs to be considered but where they are. We are possibly missing our first choice front 4 and two of the obvious back ups.

They are missing

Botman
Burn (Livramento is a right back only playing left back because Burn is out)
Longstaff
Willock
Wilson

All regular starters

Plus:
Murphy
Barnes
Targett
Anderson

All key members of their squad who regularly play.

P.S. Joel wants a quiet word about your Lamptey comment

 

[Berty23]

They are missing

Botman
Burn (Livramento is a right back only playing left back because Burn is out)
Longstaff
Willock
Wilson

All regular starters

Plus:
Murphy
Barnes
Targett
Anderson

All key members of their squad who regularly play.

P.S. Joel wants a quiet word about your Lamptey comment

So two starters then.

 

[WhingForPresident]

We need to be realistic and acknowledge it's going to be very tough with all our injuries, the travelling, the extra games, the suspensions etc. Would be delighted with a point.

 

[dwayne]

Right, I've done my post-Athens recovery, got my away day mojo on and I'd like to change my response.

If the team is one-tenth as knackered as I am, we might do this.

Maybe.

Lightweight .... I managed 2 x 3am finishes in Athens and now have done another night out 2 days after in another continent 5 hours behind the UK (after a 7 hour delay stuck on the plane!)........and I'm up and ready to go 90 mins after said night out, to watch the game.

On that basis, I expect our players to be fresh as a daisy and win 3-0

 

[Brownstuff]

Our overall record against Chelsea is piss poor. I am an optimist however and expect Brighton to win same as any other game but the odds are where I expect them to be.

 

[tstanbur]

So two starters then.

I’ve listed five regular starters and you’ve counted two. Not the brightest spark are you?

 

[Mtoto]

Right, 2 is evens....I can work that out now. Ta for explaining

One of the advantages of decimal odds is that you can divide the decimal price into 100 to get the percentage chance it implies, and vice versa. So 3.5 implies 100/3.5 = 28.6pc chance, while a 25pc chance is 100/25 = 4 (or 3-1 in old money).

Opta's model had Chelsea as 44pc chances for the win, which is obviously odds-against - but just as I typed that, they went 1 up.

 

[Stat Brother]

We were 33-1 five minutes ago.

 

[banjo]

……