[Albion] Can we catch Spurs ?

[American Seagle]

Realistically anyone from 11th to 5th could finish 5th without a huge change in form. That seems to be the way the EPL goes each season: two or three fighting for the title, a bunch competing for the prize of Europe (from around 4th or 5th to 11th or 12th) and the rest battling to avoid relegation. Currently we are towards the top of the Europe challengers, but could easily drop to 11th without doing much wrong. On the other hand we could finish 5th without doing much different from now. There are super fine margins as most of those clubs don't have the big squad depths meaning a random injury or suspension at the wrong time could be the difference between 5th and 9th. As long as we don't lose sight of that we should be ok.

 

[ifightbears]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ This would be marvellous !

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Don’t go out on a limb here….. you could end up with egg on your face.

 

[Eric the meek]

We are more potent and more resilient than we used to be. We compete in every game and we're hard to beat.

Spurs, 2 points ahead, but with our game in hand, are quite catchable.
The top 4 are a lot less catchable. 8 points is a big gap especially when they're all playing well. I don't see this happening.

I think 5th spot is the highest we can reasonably hope for, and that won't be at all easy.

 

[Simster]

5th is there for the taking for a few.clubs this season, but 4th is unlikely. That said, if just one of them goes through a bad patch (Newcastle or Man Utd) then it would great to be in pole position to pinch 4th from either of them.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

The top 4 are a lot less catchable. 8 points is a big gap especially when they're all playing well. I don't see this happening.

.

Game in hand and if we beat them that 8 points is 2 points with a ton of games left plus they all play each other. Fulham play spuds tomorrow which could mean Fulham more of a threat and spuds more of a running joke or visa versa. I believe if we keep form we will top 4.

The important question is what are the average points needed for 4th place

Drowning in optimism.

 

[Live by the sea]

7th is realistic I think . Spurs have a deeper squad than us .

 

[Simster]

7th is realistic I think . Spurs have a deeper squad than us .

Do they though?

 

[dangull]

5th place would be champions league football if an English team wins it this year?

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Over the last 8 seasons 4th place has garnered between 76 points and 66. 76 twice were outliers with the other 6 between 71 and 66.

So hit the lower target 66 would require 4 more points from the second half of the season than were gained in the first. Are we better under RDZ than Potter? I think so, I also think our goal difference is a big plus.

 

[Paxton Dazo]

5th place would be champions league football if an English team wins it this year?

Nope. Only if the team finishing 5th wins it.

 

[BrianSwan]

You can catch Man United and Newcastle!

 

[Eric the meek]

Over the last 8 seasons 4th place has garnered between 76 points and 66. 76 twice were outliers with the other 6 between 71 and 66.

So hit the lower target 66 would require 4 more points from the second half of the season than were gained in the first. Are we better under RDZ than Potter? I think so, I also think our goal difference is a big plus.

You're going for it, aren't you?

It's not often I come across anyone who is more optimistic than I am, but credit to you. Why not top 4? Aim high. What's the worst that can happen?

Whatever happens now, this is turning into an extraordinary season.

(I remember the dark days. Archer, Bellotti, that politician bloke, Gillingham, Withdean. ****Audio fades away****)

 

[Insel affe]

We have been relatively lucky with injuries so far, Lallana is influential as well, keep him in and around the match day squad, and anything is possible at the moment.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

We'll need to tighten up at the back, not sell any players and get lucky with injuries.

All of that, then definitely.

 

[Justice]

It’s realistically possible anyone can catch us who’s within 12 points. It’s far less likely we’ll catch teams above us like Newcastle though. Just enjoy the ride and hope those around us either several points behind or above drop lots of points - makes it very interesting!

Newcastle aren’t great and Potters team can’t score for shite. Then of course it’s down to the manager didn't quite get why we didn’t play Ferguson from the start if wanted to rest him rest him next week.

 

[A1X]

We’re half way through the season and not at 40 points yet. Please can we stop getting ahead of ourselves.

 

[timbha]

Newcastle aren’t great and Potters team can’t score for shite. Then of course it’s down to the manager didn't quite get why we didn’t play Ferguson from the start if wanted to rest him rest him next week.

He’s 18, played just a few first team matches, and is still learning. Surely yesterday’s timing was perfect. Let’s protect him for the long term/big fee and keep the pressure off.

 

[GT49er]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ This would be marvellous !

Looks about right!

 

[Eric the meek]

I suspect we are improving, but that it's not in a straight line. In terms of points, the Leicester result was disappointing, but in terms of a slightly below-par performance, we should still have won.

We seem to have resolved our traditional goal scoring problem, and have developed grit. We compete in every game we play, and we are hard to beat, and stay beaten.
We need to lose our imposter syndrome and get our heads round the fact that we are actually quite good.