[Politics] By Elections x2

[LamieRobertson]

Yes, East Worthing and Shoreham. Should have specified.

Although some pollsters forecast that both could go red.

Interesting…i can’t remember when there last was a Labour MP locally

 

[rippleman]

I keep hearing the Tories tell that we are in a financial mess because the costs of borrowing keep increasing as a result of the rising interest rates.

Surely Sunak as Chancellor, having borrowed billions during covid so he could pay his pals for dodgy PPE contracts, "eat out to help out" (which seems to have been "eat out to increase the number of deaths") and throw away billions in fraudulent covid grants, would have taken the prudent step of "hedging" against interest rates rising?

It would appear that he didn't.

 

[Randy McNob]

PR is the way forward; FPTP is a nonsense in todays world.

absolutely. It cannot be allowed that 1 party led by a leader unelected by the people, not even elected by his own party can simply decide to cancel a major rail infrastructure project with no public or parliamentary mandate

 

[AK74]

I'm curious about the path to PR. This article by Peter Kellner lays things out coherently:

The political route to proportional representation

It’s easy to make the case for ditching our first-past-the-post voting system. But with both main parties opposed, could it ever happen?

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

 

[Bodian]

1. Err, no thanks. I vote in every election ( except PCC ones which I don't agree with ) BUT abstaining is a valid voting option. Even MPs use it in Parliament.

I'd be happy with compulsory voting with a 'spoil ballot / none of the above / abstain' option on the paper.

 

[Chicken Run]

The next elections will be interesting in Sussex. It seems very likely that Hastings, Worthing and Crawley would go Labour, Lewes and Eastbourne Lib Dem.

Given the results in the recent local elections, constituency boundary changes and the remain voting professional demographics of these constituencies, is there a realistic chance that Horsham and Mid Sussex could choose Lib Dem?

I predict Brighton Pavilion will go Red too.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Mid Beds may be one of the most outstanding Labour by-election wins in their history.

They shouldn't be winning there. It is symbolic of the Tories 'respectable' rural loyal core vote being disengaged. Abandoned.

'What's Tory about the Tories anymore' should be a bigger discussion than it is.

It's not even that the Tories have catastrophically lost the voters they won in 2019 or the more median-y voter that generally decides elections, but they're just fundamentally losing their core base as well. I'm just in awe at how badly they've f***ed up.

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm curious about the path to PR. This article by Peter Kellner lays things out coherently:

The political route to proportional representation

It’s easy to make the case for ditching our first-past-the-post voting system. But with both main parties opposed, could it ever happen?

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

any case for PR that starts from "it'll hurt the Conservatives" is deeply flawed, engineering the election system because you dont like the results. i dont remember Labour voices for PR in late 00's after a third victory and 20+ seat majoirty on 35% of the vote. and we wont hear much if they win a majority next year either. the higher thinkers in Labour will know that post PR voting patterns would change and Labour (along with Conservative) split in two or three parts. there's no point to McDonnell and Stamer being in the same party, on the same manifesto. the case for PR needs to be made on the principles of representation, not desired results.

 

[Midget]

The next elections will be interesting in Sussex. It seems very likely that Hastings, Worthing and Crawley would go Labour, Lewes and Eastbourne Lib Dem.

Given the results in the recent local elections, constituency boundary changes and the remain voting professional demographics of these constituencies, is there a realistic chance that Horsham and Mid Sussex could choose Lib Dem?

Horsham'll be the last bastion of blue locally. My dad used to say they'd vote in a baboon just because it had a blue arse

 

[JackB247]

The next elections will be interesting in Sussex. It seems very likely that Hastings, Worthing and Crawley would go Labour, Lewes and Eastbourne Lib Dem.

Given the results in the recent local elections, constituency boundary changes and the remain voting professional demographics of these constituencies, is there a realistic chance that Horsham and Mid Sussex could choose Lib Dem?

Key aspect here is boundary changes. I think its very likely Mid Sussex for example goes to the Dems as the constituency changes mean less well off villages in the Ashdown Forest - they've all gone to Uckfield and East Sussex - and a constituency more focused around Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath which both went orange in the council elections in May.

Current MP and DWP Minister Mims Davies has already jumped ship to run over in Uckfield and East Sussex, which looks the safer Blue seat on paper now.

Concur with Hastings, Worthing and Crawley - not sure about Lewes and Eastbourne, was a three way run off last time between Tories, Labour and Lib Dem, if Labour are on for as strong a majority as last night's results suggest, reckons that's the sort of seat that goes red.

 

[Gabbiano]

Horsham'll be the last bastion of blue locally. My dad used to say they'd vote in a baboon just because it had a blue arse

Well the council went Lib Dem majority recently, the town often votes Lib Dem but the villages Tory. Boundary changes have cut out some of the more Tory areas from the parliamentary constituency and put them into a new 'East Grinstead and Uckfield' seat (same for Mid Sussex). Remain vote and high educational attainment may mean less patience for the current strand of Tory sensationalism.

But this is probably just wishful thinking. People vote differently for their councils than for MPs.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

any case for PR that starts from "it'll hurt the Conservatives" is deeply flawed, engineering the election system because you dont like the results. i dont remember Labour voices for PR in late 00's after a third victory and 20+ seat majoirty on 35% of the vote. and we wont hear much if they win a majority next year either. the higher thinkers in Labour will know that post PR voting patterns would change and Labour (along with Conservative) split in two or three parts. there's no point to McDonnell and Stamer being in the same party, on the same manifesto. the case for PR needs to be made on the principles of representation, not desired results.

PR will hurt the conservatives, that's just fact. It will hurt the Nationalist parties more, and Labour a little less. It will benefit the Libdems, Greens, Reform, UKIP and so on. It kills independents stone dead.

All that is reality and i suppose acknowledging it at least can give a path to finding a solution. Denying it hurts the tories ain't going to convince any tory to support it, it can only be brought in by a Labour minority gov propped up by Libdems, but we're not going to see that anytime soon

 

[Greg Bobkin]

'RED WAVE INCOMING'...

I saw on my FB feed a tactically timed post from the Labour party asking about how they could improve the East Worthing and Shoreham constituency. Cue a load of people piping up with 'What about Lancing? Have you forgotten about us?' comments.

Never underestimate the level of intelligence of some voters.

 

[Bozza]

'RED WAVE INCOMING'...

I saw on my FB feed a tactically timed post from the Labour party asking about how they could improve the East Worthing and Shoreham constituency. Cue a load of people piping up with 'What about Lancing? Have you forgotten about us?' comments.

Never underestimate the level of intelligence of some voters.

I think this indicates even Labour know that Lancing is beyond saving now.

(People of Lancing: that was a joke)

 

[Audax]

Yeah this is the most depressing thing about the set of results, we need (1) to make voting a legal duty and (2) proportional representation. Too many people are disengaged with the whole process.

I'd be happy with compulsory voting with a 'spoil ballot / none of the above / abstain' option on the paper.

Even in Australia, well known for having "compulsory voting" doesn't actually have compulsory voting. In Australia the law says you must turn up and get your name crossed off. After that you can do whatever you want - and a lot of people do. Every election in Aus there will be a number of blank / spoiled ballot papers.

One thing to also bear in mind is worldwide we’re seeing a bit of a kick back against the leaders who took countries through COVID. It happened in Poland and New Zealand last weekend. It’s previously happened in Germany, Australia, Brazil, Sweden, Italy and arguably even the US, among others. That is likely to also be happening here.

NZ is a little different. The wildly popular Ardern stood down and her party went to the election with a new leader.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Even in Australia, well known for having "compulsory voting" doesn't actually have compulsory voting. In Australia the law says you must turn up and get your name crossed off. After that you can do whatever you want - and a lot of people do. Every election in Aus there will be a number of blank / spoiled ballot papers.


NZ is a little different. The wildly popular Ardern stood down and her party went to the election with a new leader.

A spoiled paper is still a vote, ie. a protest vote.

Having been at a local count, the spoiled papers are examined in the presence of all the candidates who have to agree if the vote can be assigned to any candidate, or is just spoiled which is why the number of them is also recorded by the Returning Officer.
So messages of 'None of the Above' are fit to serve (my comment, once on a councillor vote) are read out to all of them.

 

[Audax]

It kills independents stone dead.

Not necessarily. Australia's Senate is PR (using STV) and there's currently 3 full Independents, plus 2 more that belong to a "Party" that is more accurately described as closely-allied independents running on a shared ticket. There's then 3 more seats held by Australia's equivalents of UKIP / Reform. It's a 76 seat house, so with 3 full independents that's 4%, if you broaden it to include the Lambie Network pair that's 6.5%.

Edit: Greens hold 11, FWIW.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Key aspect here is boundary changes. I think its very likely Mid Sussex for example goes to the Dems as the constituency changes mean less well off villages in the Ashdown Forest - they've all gone to Uckfield and East Sussex - and a constituency more focused around Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath which both went orange in the council elections in May.

Current MP and DWP Minister Mims Davies has already jumped ship to run over in Uckfield and East Sussex, which looks the safer Blue seat on paper now.

Concur with Hastings, Worthing and Crawley - not sure about Lewes and Eastbourne, was a three way run off last time between Tories, Labour and Lib Dem, if Labour are on for as strong a majority as last night's results suggest, reckons that's the sort of seat that goes red.

Lewes is a straight fight between LibDem & Tory, who both got over 20K votes. Labour didn't get more than 3,200 votes.
I believe Eastbourne is the same.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Not necessarily. Australia's Senate is PR (using STV) and there's currently 3 full Independents, plus 2 more that belong to a "Party" that is more accurately described as closely-allied independents running on a shared ticket. There's then 3 more seats held by Australia's equivalents of UKIP / Reform. It's a 76 seat house, so with 3 full independents that's 4%, if you broaden it to include the Lambie Network pair that's 6.5%.

Edit: Greens hold 11, FWIW.

I assume that Australia still has a constituency system? STV is better but not full PR is it?

 

[HeaviestTed]

Key aspect here is boundary changes. I think its very likely Mid Sussex for example goes to the Dems as the constituency changes mean less well off villages in the Ashdown Forest - they've all gone to Uckfield and East Sussex - and a constituency more focused around Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath which both went orange in the council elections in May.

Current MP and DWP Minister Mims Davies has already jumped ship to run over in Uckfield and East Sussex, which looks the safer Blue seat on paper now.

Concur with Hastings, Worthing and Crawley - not sure about Lewes and Eastbourne, was a three way run off last time between Tories, Labour and Lib Dem, if Labour are on for as strong a majority as last night's results suggest, reckons that's the sort of seat that goes red.

Erm these “less well off villages” is where I live and I see a lot of nice cars and people getting Waitrose deliveries, I think these villages will probably stay Tory unfortunately.