[Politics] By-election in Honiton and Tiverton.

[Robinjakarta]

In hindsight, shouldn't the rebels have held off their vote of confidence until after these by-elections

Yes. And without hindsight for that matter.

 

[A1X]

In hindsight, shouldn't the rebels have held off their vote of confidence until after these by-elections

I did hear a few rumblings at the time that maybe a few Johnson loyalists put letters in to force the issue before the by-elections, which would certainly make sense. I'm not given to conspiracy theories but it would certainly be a way for them to game the system.

 

[Mackenzie]

Keep going Big Dog, you’re doing a fine job.

 

[WATFORD zero]

It's almost as if the electorate have given up on FPTP and decided to implement their own AV voting system

 

[halbpro]

And the record is set. Lib Dems don’t just sneak in with a record majority turnover, they win by 6k votes themselves. That is a huge statement by the electorate.

It's pretty historic overall. If you look at the separate seats of Tiverton and Honiton that the modern constituency was formed from in 1997, Honiton has had a Conservative MP going all the way back to 1834 when the party was formed! Tiverton has had one since 1885 with the exception of a June 1923 by-election which returned a Liberal. Went back to the Tories in October 1924. This is a VERY Tory seat.

 

[nicko31]

Would that be the same Johnson whose Government you celebrated voting into power only a couple of years ago. Maybe you didn't realise what a 'full term' in Government meant when you voted for his vision of the future a second time

Are you sure he a PPF style parody account hasn't been created?

 

[Mellotron]

Lab lost deposit in T&H.
Lib lost deposit in Wakefield.
So, serious tactical voting.

Needs some real work from Libs and Lab to replicate this in a General Election.

Not convinced that Lab want to do it at GE because it would mean certain power sharing

Share power, or don't share NO power. Come on Labour.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Analyst from University of Exeter just been on BBC News saying that if this trend continues then Tories would lose up to half their seats in the South West in the next General Election. Including that of the honourable member for the 17th Century Jacob Rees-Mogg. Now wouldn't THAT be a 'Portillo Moment'!

 

[Medwayseagull]

Analyst from University of Exeter just been on BBC News saying that if this trend continues then Tories would lose up to half their seats in the South West in the next General Election. Including that of the honourable member for the 17th Century Jacob Rees-Mogg. Now wouldn't THAT be a 'Portillo Moment'!

I hope that wouldn't mean him re-inventing himself as a TV presenter on a reality show called " the only way is toffs".

 

[Simster]

David Frost, “It’s not a good night for Labour or the Liberals either “

“let’s cut out the noise and spin”

by adding noise and spin!!

He's obviously saying that from a Tory boy perspective but actually both opposition parties would do well to recognise what he's saying. There was some serious tactical voting going on and the opposition share of the vote didn't rise significantly.

This points to a few things in my view:
1) A large chunk of traditional Labour support are still not totally convinced by Starmer. If they were, the Wakefield result would have been an absolute Tory embarrassment rather than merely a convincing defeat.
2) The Lib Dems win could still easily be construed as little more than a protest vote now that Brexit has been and gone.
3) As Frost says, the Tory vote just fell off a cliff and is the main reason they lost. We all know why, and if Johnson is booted out before the next GE (as he surely will be), it would only take 2 years of the right wing media convincing everyone that this is the wholesale change they demanded and that regardless of who else is in charge/in the cabinet that is all that needed to be done.

So people should be careful when they mock his attempt to explain away the results - because I think there is more than a grain of truth in what he says.

 

[lawros left foot]

He's obviously saying that from a Tory boy perspective but actually both opposition parties would do well to recognise what he's saying. There was some serious tactical voting going on and the opposition share of the vote didn't rise significantly.

This points to a few things in my view:
1) A large chunk of traditional Labour support are still not totally convinced by Starmer. If they were, the Wakefield result would have been an absolute Tory embarrassment rather than merely a convincing defeat.
2) The Lib Dems win could still easily be construed as little more than a protest vote now that Brexit has been and gone.
3) As Frost says, the Tory vote just fell off a cliff and is the main reason they lost. We all know why, and if Johnson is booted out before the next GE (as he surely will be), it would only take 2 years of the right wing media convincing everyone that this is the wholesale change they demanded and that regardless of who else is in charge/in the cabinet that is all that needed to be done.

So people should be careful when they mock his attempt to explain away the results - because I think there is more than a grain of truth in what he says.

I agree, until you consider the shoeing the Conservatives got in the Chesham By Election, the North Shropshire by election and the massacre in the recent local elections.
When a place like Worthing has a Labour council, it’s time for the Tories to panic

 

[Bold Seagull]

He's obviously saying that from a Tory boy perspective but actually both opposition parties would do well to recognise what he's saying. There was some serious tactical voting going on and the opposition share of the vote didn't rise significantly.

This points to a few things in my view:
1) A large chunk of traditional Labour support are still not totally convinced by Starmer. If they were, the Wakefield result would have been an absolute Tory embarrassment rather than merely a convincing defeat.
2) The Lib Dems win could still easily be construed as little more than a protest vote now that Brexit has been and gone.
3) As Frost says, the Tory vote just fell off a cliff and is the main reason they lost. We all know why, and if Johnson is booted out before the next GE (as he surely will be), it would only take 2 years of the right wing media convincing everyone that this is the wholesale change they demanded and that regardless of who else is in charge/in the cabinet that is all that needed to be done.

So people should be careful when they mock his attempt to explain away the results - because I think there is more than a grain of truth in what he says.

What he was saying was disingenuous - every take on statistics can have a grain of truth. Brexit did change the voting landscape, so just comparing voting from the last 2 elections isn't a clear picture of voting intentions. 48% in a byelection in Wakefield is above a vote share Labour had 2005 - 2015, is back to a general level of Labour support the constituency has seen over decades as is the Conservative vote.

The Lib Dem vote in Honiton and Tiverton could of course be a protest vote, it's been a blue safe seat for 130 years. That is why the 2 byelections are so interesting, they're at opposite end of the Tory seat spectrum, the surprise Red Wall Brexit win and the absolute nailed on safe seat that has always just been a case of turning up.

With regard to Starmer, of course you are right, but if it is a tactic, he doesn't need to stick his head above the parapet yet and risk getting ripped apart by the right wing press before they've had a chance to mend and move on from the politics of the previous leader. It's a challenge. Ed Milliband fell foul of good ideas being mocked through presentation rather than content. It's a fickle electorate that are taken in as much by a buffoon in a pub as they are someone with actual intellect and ideas.

 

[Audax]

With regard to Starmer, of course you are right, but if it is a tactic, he doesn't need to stick his head above the parapet yet and risk getting ripped apart by the right wing press before they've had a chance to mend and move on from the politics of the previous leader. It's a challenge. Ed Milliband fell foul of good ideas being mocked through presentation rather than content. It's a fickle electorate that are taken in as much by a buffoon in a pub as they are someone with actual intellect and ideas.

I'm hoping that what Starmer is doing currently is "just enough" to keep Labour bouyant in the polls, without necessarily releasing anything of substance too early and giving the Tories a chance to undermine their position ahead of the next election. To be perfectly honest, I doubt we're getting another GE until right at the end of 2024 at this point. Boris knows he can't win if he calls one today - he needs time to repair the damage (very much doubt he can, but that'll be the calculation). And if Boris gets ousted, whoever takes over will make the same calculation: maximising Tory chances to win means pushing the next GE as late as possible.

So if I was Starmer, rather than giving the Tories 2 years to attack his policies I'd take a similar approach. Keep the powder dry for now. Attack where attacking makes sense. Let's not underestimate the win that they had with the Windfall Tax. They've banked that, it's a great piece for them to keep in their back pocket to roll out whenever Boris tries the "Well what have they done?" card (which, I think, has been played a lot less since the windfall tax u-turn). Labour managed to articulate a policy position, from opposition, that the government were forced to co-opt defensively.

What I'm expecting Starmer to do, if he's smart, is quietly build up a portfolio of policy positions they want to take into the next election. Wargame them - what angles do they think the Tories might take to attack them, how do they defend those attacks? And then just wait for what they think will be the optimum time to go on the front foot as we get closer to the next election. They'll need enough time to get those policies out and into voters' minds without confusing them, but not so much time that the Tories have forever to attack them.

 

[Simster]

I agree, until you consider the shoeing the Conservatives got in the Chesham By Election, the North Shropshire by election and the massacre in the recent local elections.
When a place like Worthing has a Labour council, it’s time for the Tories to panic

What he was saying was disingenuous - every take on statistics can have a grain of truth. Brexit did change the voting landscape, so just comparing voting from the last 2 elections isn't a clear picture of voting intentions. 48% in a byelection in Wakefield is above a vote share Labour had 2005 - 2015, is back to a general level of Labour support the constituency has seen over decades as is the Conservative vote.

The Lib Dem vote in Honiton and Tiverton could of course be a protest vote, it's been a blue safe seat for 130 years. That is why the 2 byelections are so interesting, they're at opposite end of the Tory seat spectrum, the surprise Red Wall Brexit win and the absolute nailed on safe seat that has always just been a case of turning up.

With regard to Starmer, of course you are right, but if it is a tactic, he doesn't need to stick his head above the parapet yet and risk getting ripped apart by the right wing press before they've had a chance to mend and move on from the politics of the previous leader. It's a challenge. Ed Milliband fell foul of good ideas being mocked through presentation rather than content. It's a fickle electorate that are taken in as much by a buffoon in a pub as they are someone with actual intellect and ideas.

Some interesting points raised I think. However;

* the recent spankings mentioned might only serve to highlight how poor the Tories are. My point stands there - if the media convince the electorate that Johnson's removal was all that needed to happen, we might still struggle to see them removed in 2024. I think the nation will need convincing that the opposition are both charismatic and trustworthy to avoid that happening, otherwise we will continue to be led by these chancers backed by the sufficient numbers of selfish and moronic that are clearly there.
* as an aside, I can't help wondering if your alarm at Labour winning in Worthing is misplaced as it ignores the sizeable shift in demographics that Worthing is seeing. It is quite gentrified now and seen as a cheap alternative to Brighton with lots of young people moving there.
* if Labour is merely returning to it's normal vote share in Wakefield then I don't think that is saying an awful lot for Labour when this is clearly the worst Tory government we've had in decades if not ever.

 

[darkwolf666]

What he was saying was disingenuous - every take on statistics can have a grain of truth. Brexit did change the voting landscape, so just comparing voting from the last 2 elections isn't a clear picture of voting intentions. 48% in a byelection in Wakefield is above a vote share Labour had 2005 - 2015, is back to a general level of Labour support the constituency has seen over decades as is the Conservative vote.

The Lib Dem vote in Honiton and Tiverton could of course be a protest vote, it's been a blue safe seat for 130 years. That is why the 2 byelections are so interesting, they're at opposite end of the Tory seat spectrum, the surprise Red Wall Brexit win and the absolute nailed on safe seat that has always just been a case of turning up.

With regard to Starmer, of course you are right, but if it is a tactic, he doesn't need to stick his head above the parapet yet and risk getting ripped apart by the right wing press before they've had a chance to mend and move on from the politics of the previous leader. It's a challenge. Ed Milliband fell foul of good ideas being mocked through presentation rather than content. It's a fickle electorate that are taken in as much by a buffoon in a pub as they are someone with actual intellect and ideas.

This. I don’t understand why, with possibly 2 years before a GE people are demanding to know what Kier Starmer’s policies are now! A week is a long time in politics, let alone 2 years!

Besides which, other than sending immigrants to Rwanda I think the average man, stopped in the street, would struggle to tell you what Tory policies are, oh yeh! “They got Brexit done” whatever the **** that meant...

 

[Iggle Piggle]

What he was saying was disingenuous - every take on statistics can have a grain of truth. Brexit did change the voting landscape, so just comparing voting from the last 2 elections isn't a clear picture of voting intentions. 48% in a byelection in Wakefield is above a vote share Labour had 2005 - 2015, is back to a general level of Labour support the constituency has seen over decades as is the Conservative vote.

The Lib Dem vote in Honiton and Tiverton could of course be a protest vote, it's been a blue safe seat for 130 years. That is why the 2 byelections are so interesting, they're at opposite end of the Tory seat spectrum, the surprise Red Wall Brexit win and the absolute nailed on safe seat that has always just been a case of turning up.

With regard to Starmer, of course you are right, but if it is a tactic, he doesn't need to stick his head above the parapet yet and risk getting ripped apart by the right wing press before they've had a chance to mend and move on from the politics of the previous leader. It's a challenge. Ed Milliband fell foul of good ideas being mocked through presentation rather than content. It's a fickle electorate that are taken in as much by a buffoon in a pub as they are someone with actual intellect and ideas.

The thing with Starmer is a bit similar to Biden in the US. To a large degree they campaign on "i'm not Trump" or "I'm not Boris" which might be enough to scrape through the next election but it's hardly the Blair landslide it could be if any kind of vision for the future was presented which doesn't even need to be true. Blair said "education, Education, Education" and promptly introduced tuition fees. The rail strike this week is a case in point. Labours position is that the Tory's should sort it out but then offer very little in the way of what they would do and even what side they support. I fully appreciate that this isn't a Labour problem but the electorate - or some at any rate - want a bit more than pointing over there and saying "we are not as bad as them and look at the mess we are in"

Labour somehow need to convince the shy Tories to come over. Without that, I agree with [MENTION=232]Simster[/MENTION] that many will revert to type under a re-badged, Jeremy Hunt or worse Conservative leadership. The one thing we know is that they have put up with Boris because he wins elections. Now he is a liability, it's just a matter of time before he goes. It was only ever a marriage of convenience.

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm hoping that what Starmer is doing currently is "just enough" to keep Labour bouyant in the polls, without necessarily releasing anything of substance too early and giving the Tories a chance to undermine their position ahead of the next election. To be perfectly honest, I doubt we're getting another GE until right at the end of 2024 at this point. Boris knows he can't win if he calls one today - he needs time to repair the damage (very much doubt he can, but that'll be the calculation). And if Boris gets ousted, whoever takes over will make the same calculation: maximising Tory chances to win means pushing the next GE as late as possible.

i dont think Starmer has to do much tbh, coming to the view he's dull enough to not scare center-right Conservatives and pick up votes by default that way, certainly take back the redwall. dont see a early GE unless a large budget splurge this autumn, then get one in before the recession.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I think there's some very valid points about what if the Conservatives change leader and get the press on board with 'they were dreadful, but we're different' campaign. And I believe that Starmer keeping his head down is a deliberate ploy as he has far more to lose than gain. But maybe 'charismatic' and 'personality' is what the electorate want after it was so successful last time.

The Elephant in the room for me though is this plummeting economy. It is just starting to go pear shaped after 2 and a half years of mismanagement, incompetence and complete lack of focus and resources and there are absolutely no signs of it being addressed at all.

It's taken 2.5 years to get into this state and I don't believe it is going to be turned around in the next 2 years. Whoever is standing on the basis of defending an economic disaster at the next election is going to have their work cut out

 

[Audax]

The Elephant in the room for me though is this plummeting economy. It is just starting to go pear shaped after 2 and a half years of mismanagement, incompetence and complete lack of focus and resources and there are absolutely no signs of it being addressed at all.

It's taken 2.5 years to get into this state and I don't believe it is going to be turned around in the next 2 years. Whoever is standing on the basis of defending an economic disaster at the next election is going to have their work cut out

Think the pear shape has been lurking in the bowl for a while. Looking back through monthly data on the economy, it's been massively propped up last year by vaccine rollouts and and the like - the underlying non-covid-affected economy has been in trouble for a while.

 

[nicko31]

Think the pear shape has been lurking in the bowl for a while. Looking back through monthly data on the economy, it's been massively propped up last year by vaccine rollouts and and the like - the underlying non-covid-affected economy has been in trouble for a while.

The government can spin it however they like but in recent years we've been gradually falling behind our neighbours. Too emphasis is on future of the Tory party rather than the future of the country